John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed!

One of Hillary's biggest backers has exposed the nature of the race too many of us have refused to acknowledge given our subjective myopia.  The New York Times has suggested enough is enough.  And this isn't coming from anyone other than a very pro-Hillary source.  Most importantly, the NYTimes has placed blame, in large part, at Hillary's feet.

It is hard for Hillary supporters because the two camps have been in the most heated of battles.  Yet, could it be time to realize the numbers, the (im)possibilites, what is really important, and how we are merely just insuring that John McCain is the winner should we continue ignoring reality?  

Naturally, for Hillary's supporters this is a tough pill.  In the alternative it means slicing and dicing it, a million ways, as to come up with good reasons why Hillary must stay in the race. And that is merely on a statistical level.  Yet, Hillary is missing the popular vote, the delegate vote, and the states.  Importantly, the Super Delegate are dripping away to Obama.  On a national level Hillary's slip continues.  Thus, throwing a wrench in the assertion "Hillary is more electable than Obama."  We certainly can't assume that since Hillary won states like N.Y. that these states would go republican should another democrat be on the ticket.  That would mean states like N.Y. would ignore their 20 plus year trend of pulling for the democratic ticket.  In most of Hillary's victories her advantage has not been double digit.  Thus, in most of her victories we don't see a huge degree of democratic Obama rejection which could be translated into a loss should Obama be our candidate.  Further killing this argument is Clinton's promises that she will do everything within her power to insure Obama's victory should he be the candidate.  

Some may take solice in the PA victory.  Yet, Hillary was almost 20% ahead of Obama just weeks ago.  The final tally has her at between 9% and 10%.  That is not an upward trend.  Moreover, her biggest assets, Nutter and Rendell, have both said they will do the same for Obama should he be the candidate.  

Bottom line, at this point Hillary would need to win 71% of the delegates from the remaining races and/or get the Super Delegates to do what they have been refusing to do since Iowa - move back to Hillary.  

There are a million good reasons for Hillary's supporters to want her, and only her.  "Damn the torpedoes!"  Likewise, there are a million good reasons why I should want to win this week's Power-Ball lottery.  Yet, I have done the math and will be going to work like a diligent worker bee.  If Hillary's supporters support her candidacy because they want what is best for America then the big question looms - Will maintaining this path merely insure we get another 4/8 years of Bush/McCain?

To claim there is some path to victory for Hillary would require one to ignore gravity.  Hillary's supporters have been forced into positions such as "Texas's rules should be ignored" as to claim she won in that state.  Recently, it has been suggested we should simply "forget the democratic party rules and do our analysis using the Republicans way of counting delegates.  Such arguments mean ignoring rules which have been around since 1968.  We can suggest that the Super Delegates simply decide what is "best" and ignore the will of the people.  An idea, should it happen, which would be suicidal for the democratic ticket.  McCain's justifiable rallying call will be "my opponent was rejected by the popular democratic vote and yet, she wants us to select her?"  This does not even begin to address the mass of voters who will return this slap in the face by going to the movies rather than the polls on election day.

We can also try and bring FL and MI back into the fold.  This would mean ignoring the very rules to which all candidates agreed upon because the "loser" didn't like the result.  It troubles everyone that two big states were punished.  Yet, to do otherwise would mean ignoring the "game rules" and creating nothing short of chaos in 2012 when all the states realize they too can do what they please despite the clear and well settled rules.  Is that what we really want for our candidate?

If you despise the war, the economic slide, the lack of health care, Bush, our use of torture, etc. you naturally want either Hillary or Obama.  Yet, by supporting Hillary, to the bitter end, are we throwing the baby out with the bath water?  

It takes big people, parties, and supporters to muscle together a win.  Yet, it takes even a bigger person to realize they are wrong, have lost, and must know face the facts and support the party.  Hillary can leave the race on the most positive of notes.  She can say "I won in PA and yet, I realize the math and necessity to back our party's candidate."  It will secure her place in history and provide us with the best chance to win in November.  Otherwise we will help insure McCain wins as we look for the fumble and ignore gravity.  I will not accept years more of this crap while we spend the next 4/8 years pointing fingers.  It is time to think about this, maybe recommend we all think about this.  Maybe it is a good time to stop the echo chamber (I'm more guilty than the next on this)  and give it a thought before we simply set up a McCain victory. This is your call to action....make sure Hillary does the right thing...voice your opinion to her.


Poll
Best Reason For Hillary to Remain In
She will win the remaining races by 71%
The Super Delegates will defy the will of the people and do what is "best"
Statistics don't say it all
Obama will fumble before November
It is Hillary or we have no future
Obama benefits from the bruising

Votes: 6
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (2.00 / 1)

People want their say and want to vote. Obama has not closed the deal and has lost in every big state except for IL. He outspend Hillary 3:1 in PA and still lost.


Fight for Democrats in Congress.
by owl06 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:44:24 PM EST

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Is there something wrong with Obama using the money given to him by small donors?  It is frustrating but there is nothing wrong with it.  In fact, it is the "little guys" voting by giving.


by SovSov on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:48:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Hillary just raised $10 since last night. 80% of it came from new donors.


Fight for Democrats in Congress.
by owl06 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

10 million that should read


Fight for Democrats in Congress.
by owl06 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:06:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

True or not, the Republicans had a great day yesterday.


by Drummond on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:50:05 PM EST
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Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Georgia is the 9th largest state (measured by population). He won it by 35%. North Carolina is the 10th largest, where he is poised to do quite well. Virginia is the 12th largest state, which he won by 29%. Washington is the 13th largest state, which he won by 35%. Missouri, Wisconsin, and Maryland--which Obama won--are also among the 20 largest states.

So, yes, Obama has turned in some huge (far larger than 9%) victories in some big states.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S ._states_by_population


by DPW on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:53:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

electoral votes are what matter.


Fight for Democrats in Congress.
by owl06 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:06:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

No, they aren't--not in the primaries/caucuses. Losing a primary/caucus does not indicate very much about general election performance in that state. A case in point: Gore lost NH in the 2000 general election to Bush, yet Gore won the NH primary while Bush lost to McCain by 20 points. Looking only at primary results, one might have concluded that Bush couldn't win New Hampshire. But, he did. In fact, in SUSA's most recent poll of NH in the GE, Obama beats McCain while Hillary loses--even though Hillary won the NH primary.

Similarly, Obama would almost certainly win NY, CA, NJ, and MA--just as Clinton would win IL. And, I'm confident that he'll win PA, MI (Obama actually was leading in the most recent GE poll, whereas Clinton was trailing).

Moreover, if you want project general election strength on the basis of primary/caucus results, it seems more appropriate to concentrate on swing states (instead of pretending solidly blue states won't vote for Obama). Accordingly, you have to consider Obama's strength in IA, CO, WI, MO, WA, MN, VA, and NM (which was effectively a tie). Obama also polls better (in both primary and GE polls) in Oregon than Clinton.


by DPW on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:30:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

if hillary can't win her own party's nomination, by the raw votes, how does that turn into electorial wins?  that is an assumption.  an assumption not even supported by today's poll numbers.


by SovSov on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:02:58 PM EST
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Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Why HRC has not closed the deal yet?  I mean, the woman was the annointed one with her vast experience as a first lady, senator?  By your argument, I guess she will lose IL, MN, WI, IA, WA.  How can any Dem. expect to win in Nov. without IL, MN, WI, traditionally reliable Dem states?  Oh I know, she will win TX!  


by sbbonerad on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Reality is a hard pill to swallow, it may take NC, IN, and OR for these people to wake up.  You have to understand that the majority of her supporters have invested a lot in her and sometimes it just take some time for them to realize that I have the exact same chance as she does in winning the nomination.

/ON TO INDIANA!!!


She and McCain are very close - Bill Clinton
by clintonmccain on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:49:21 PM EST

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (2.00 / 1)

It's funny that this diary would preach to Hillary supporters about the dangers her candidacy brings vis-a-vis John McCain when in reality, Obama has almost no realistic electoral chance of beating McCain in November.

Obama's inability to appeal to any segment of the party beyond AA's & academia is exactly why Hillary has stayed in the race.  If anyone should bow out for the good of the party, it's Barack Obama.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:50:58 PM EST

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (2.00 / 1)

"Obama has almost no realistic electoral chance of beating McCain in November."

Really?  Do you have some lotto numbers as well?

/How much do you charge for predictions?


She and McCain are very close - Bill Clinton
by clintonmccain on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:53:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Look at the electoral maps (none / 0)

and head-to-head matchups on RCP or other commonly available polls.  No lotto prediction necessary here, no guesses.  It doesn't look good for Obama v McCain in the general, as he loses the states with the most electoral votes.


by 4justice on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:57:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look at the electoral maps (2.00 / 1)

So you are certain these polls will stay the same 6 months from now?

/I am glad Bill Clinton didn't listen to you when he was running in 92


She and McCain are very close - Bill Clinton
by clintonmccain on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:01:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look at the electoral maps (none / 0)

Why oh why do we bother with elections in November when there is polling data available...

We could save time and money, just poll in April...


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (2.00 / 2)

Your feeling about who appeals to who ignores the millions of votes for each candidate and the outcome.  It isn't like 12 egg heads from Princeton were Obama's core.  It ignores the national polls.  It simply ignores all the numbers.  It is a narrative which helps a candidate and ignores gravity.


by SovSov on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:55:38 PM EST
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Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Actually, my estimation seems pretty cognizant of all the numbers:

The staggering number of Hillary supporters who would choose McCain over Obama.

County by county breakdowns of the statewide votes vis-a-vis demographic distribution in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas.

Obama fares miserably outside of AA's, affluent whites, and impressionable college students.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:08:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (2.00 / 1)

Yes, Obama won states like Iowa, Minnesota and Washington on the AA and tenure vote.

(rolls eyes)

He leads in the popular vote, but he's the one who's not connecting with America and should bow out "for good?"


by jdusek on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:00:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (2.00 / 1)

Texas?  Unless of course we say that we will only accept the primary side and not the causus side.  Unfortunately, Texas settled that argument for themselves.  It would be rude to say otherwise.


by SovSov on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:04:38 PM EST
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Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Everyone knows that the states to which you refer were decided by enthusiast-dominated caucuses.  I think the Washington state primary was something like a very narrow 2-3% win for Obama, and that was at his height of popularity.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Clearly, there is something to think about here.  Yet, will people do that or just yell?


by SovSov on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:09:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

I have no idea why you're changing the subject.  We were talking about the relative electoral strength of HRC v. BHO.  

This complilation of pundit theories about the long primary "damag[ing]" our race seems to not relate directly to the conversation we were having.

shrug


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:16:22 PM EST
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Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

You said he is only capturing the AA and academic vote.

In my home state of MN -- a state that is as white as they come and predominantly rural -- Obama won the big cities, the small towns, the rural farms and the Iron Range.

What percentage of those caucus voters do you think were blacks and academics?


by jdusek on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:42:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Minnesota voted by caucus.  It's impossible to infer the temperment of the popular will there from the skewed results of an enthusiast-dominated caucus.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 04:15:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

I'll ask again: what percentage of the hundreds of thousands of enthusiasts that voted in the Minnesota caucus do you think were black or academics?


by jdusek on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 04:21:51 PM EST
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Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

I don't think the breakdown is publicly available anywhere.

If I had to guess, I'd say very few were black and many were academic (college students, affluent whites).  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 04:26:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

Obama had huge wins in rural areas of Minnesota that are almost exclusively white, far from affluent, aging and 4+ hours from the closest university.

I'm not trying to start an argument with you, but you're comment that the candidate who has the majority of popular votes and the majority of support in the latest national polls is "unable to appeal to any segment of the party beyond AAs and academia" is just not accurate.

He is appealing to a wide range of voters here in MN and around the country. Clinton does better with some groups, but it's not like Obama's getting all of his support exclusively from blacks and college kids.


by jdusek on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: John McCain Wins! Democrats Get Crushed! (none / 0)

With all respect, there was never a full statewide election in Minnesota.  I can't in good conscience extrapolate the actions of a few dedicated supporters in distant corners of the state and pretend that it represents the sentiment of the state's Democrats as a whole.    

When I say, Obama is "unable to appeal to any segment of the party beyond AAs and academia," that should not be construed as saying "every single Obama supporter--100%--falls into these categories!  And every single Hillary supporter falls outside."  They're generalities, the best that can be made with the information available (polls, statewide county returns).  

Perhaps you would find the following statement more agreeable:

Obama is at an extreme disadvantage with voters in counties that have few AA's, few affluent whites, and few college students.

Meanwhile, Hillary does comparatively better with most of Obama's base except for AA's.  See Bucks County, Pennsylvania.  Montgomery County, Pennsylvania.  

Obama loses the white rural counties by 35-50%.  Hillary loses affluent whites by much more modest margins, 5%, 10%.  See Delaware County, PA/Chester County, PA.  Columbus, OH.


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:37:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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