Mini Tornadoes

Brian Williams on MSNBC tonight:

It's like mini-tornadoes...Think about how the primary process changes each state as it moves through. Pennsylvania is now altered politically because all of this happened. Bucks County started this process Republican, it's now considered a Democratic county. Montgomery County, Philadelphia suburb, ditto, went from majority Republican registration to majority Democrat because of these new voters. In that way this has kind of changed the political landscape.



Display:


Re: Mini Tornadoes (2.00 / 2)

That's about the most intelligent thing I've heard all evening.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:04:52 AM EST

Worst comment of the night? (none / 0)

Buchannan snapping at Maddow, calling her a Marxist.

Runner up: that Clinton surrogate asking why Obama can't win a battleground state and then saying "...like Missouri"

Seriously, don't they screen these people before they send them out? Surrogates almost universally make their candidates look like morons.


by beermeister on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:08:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

well thats good news all around. (none / 0)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:06:47 AM EST

Re: Mini Tornadoes (2.00 / 2)

How sweet would it be if we could shut up all those right wing talking heads that are crowing about how long and bloody this campaign is for the Democrats?  Right now we've got two great candidates that are energizing areas that are traditionally red, and it would be amazing if the primary that is talked about as one that is destroying the Democrats is actually building an unstoppable powerhouse of a base throughout the country?

Here's hoping!


When you get into bed with evil incarnate, it always takes the covers.
by thatpurplestuff on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:08:05 AM EST

Re: Mini Tornadoes (2.00 / 2)

As a Michigan Democrat, I can't help but think that this is the real tragedy of the Michigan/Florida debacle. Right or wrong, all of the delegate seating and whatnot will be resolved eventually, and everyone will go home with a compromise they can tolerate.

But because of my state's stupid power play, we missed out on two major Democratic campaigns coming in and registering voters and getting people excited about Democrats. Michigan and Florida between them have half a dozen competitive House races and another three or four that are on the edge of competitive. The kind of party building we're seeing in Pennsylvania and elsewhere could have been enough to tip them all to us. Now, we're going to have to work that much harder in the fall, when the Democratic nominee is busy campaigning elsewhere.

Dammit, I want party building! I want millions of dollars to be spent on us, too! But no, Jennifer Granholm and Mark Brewer and the Republicans in the legislature prevented that.

Stupid. So, so stupid. I don't care about delegates. Party building is why I'm jealous of the rest of the country.


Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:12:29 AM EST

You have what it takes to fix that (2.00 / 2)

Its called a voter reg card.

Call up your local party and crack some heads.

Then call the DNC and crack some more.  We need to fix the primary system entirely, and its going to take time since a primary day or a winner-take-all formula is not the way to go about it.


by beermeister on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:15:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mini Tornadoes (none / 0)

That really does suck but I imagine there will be some attempt at party building there before the GE. It can't be too late to register to vote there can it?


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:16:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mini Tornadoes (none / 0)

Well, sure. But while the MDP is busy playing catch-up and spending its own money on voter registration, other states that benefited from the Obama-Clinton duel can focus their resources elsewhere. I feel like we're at a major disadvantage, and it's entirely the fault of short-sighted party leaders in Michigan.

I'm just venting a little, that's all.


Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:22:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mini Tornadoes (none / 0)

Totally understandable.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:33:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why are CNN and PA SoS 1% point different? (none / 0)

SoS says 8.6% Clinton lead with 98.8 % counted.


by magster on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:13:06 AM EST

"Math is hard!" (2.00 / 1)

CNN likes to round numbers and 8.6% doesn't fit well into a hole carved by a double-digit victory narrative.


by beermeister on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:16:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Math is hard!" (none / 0)

Just cranked the raw numbers myself...it's 10 percent, not 8.4.   But go ahead, keep grasping at any pathetic straws you can to divert attention from the fact that Obama got his ass kicked royal despite outspending Clinton 3-1.


by InigoMontoya on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:21:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Math is hard!" (none / 0)

Maybe you should use the official numbers from the secretary of state:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

Candidate    Votes    Percent
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)

    1,232,681    54.3%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)

    1,039,151    45.7%


by LordMike on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:31:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Math is hard!" (none / 0)

Clinton bleeding 15 points is 'kicking ass'?

mydd, I came for the politics.  I stayed for the entertainment.


by MuddyWaters on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 07:02:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary on the treadmill (none / 0)

So Hillary gains about 15 delegates and 200K votes on Obama tonight -- which he will regain NC in two weeks.


The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't.
by Liberal Avenger on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:19:14 AM EST

Re: Hillary on the treadmill (none / 0)

Yeah, but at least we get to rest our batteries for fresh outrages over the next 14 days.


by rfahey22 on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:33:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary on the treadmill (none / 0)

Based on his speech tonight I expect Obama will stay on the high road rather than match the Clintons smear for smear.


The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't.
by Liberal Avenger on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:36:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary on the treadmill (none / 0)

8-11 delegates, actually.

And at least we don't have another interminable seven week wait before the next primary. That's something, at least.


by Angry White Democrat on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:45:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary on the treadmill (none / 0)

The Clintons can carry a lot more water for McBush in two weeks.


The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't.
by Liberal Avenger on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:18:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mini Tornadoes (2.00 / 1)

This was an astute comment by Brian Williams. And it's something I've been saying for a few weeks now: The continued primary fight between Hillary and Obama is, overall, having a positive effect in these states.

It's why I don't feel a strong need to short-circuit the process. And the only way my opinion on that would shift is if we suddenly saw the general election polls vs. McCain seriously sliding. (They've slid a little bit since McCain became the Republican nominee, but not meaningfully so.)

In the long run, though, I don't think this is good news for Hillary. The results coming out Pennsylvania only make it even more impossible for her to overcome Obama's edge in pledged delegates or the popular vote. And if she can't do that, then all her arguments about electability and experience mean absolutely nothing. The superdelegates are going to look at all the people brought into the Democratic party and all the first-time voters brought into the process by this primary and they're going to say, "Do we really want to tell these people, 'Hey, you got involved. You cast your vote. You wanted to make a difference. But at the end of the day, this thing is going to be decided by a bunch of suits in a back room.'?"

I don't think they will. Because ultimately it doesn't matter that that's a perfectly legitimate outcome under the rules of the election. The only thing that will matter is that all those new voters will say, "Fuck it. The system is stacked against me. I can't make a difference. My vote is irrelevant." And then they'll stay home in November.

Or maybe they won't. But it won't matter because the perception will be that they might, and the superdelegates will break in the direction that makes it most likely that those new voters will come to the polls in November and not only help the Democratic nominee for President win... but also help a lot of those superdelegates out in their own races.


www.thealexandrian.net
by Justin Alexander on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:21:08 AM EST

Re: Mini Tornadoes (none / 0)

I think you hit the nail on the head there, Justin.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:26:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mini Tornadoes (none / 0)

Well said.

The frustrating thing to me is that this whole long process comes down to the supers.  Looking at it one way, our votes don't really matter now because our votes will not decide who the nominee is.  

Whoever the supers choose, we're gonna have a load of pissed off people.  

Anyway, I hope the supers use your logic exactly.  Just hope we can heal the rift once we have a nominee.


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:37:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mini Tornadoes (2.00 / 1)

The last 1% of the vote is pivotal if anybody is paying attention.  If Obama wins it 60-40 (as he won the last 1% to report) the race goes back to 54-46.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:25:31 AM EST

It's also a win for the pollsters (none / 0)

Discarding the PPP outlier, the average of all the final polls was around 7.5%, so they were very accurate this time.


by Angry White Democrat on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:47:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's also a win for the pollsters (none / 0)

yeah... 9% is pretty accurate.  I guess zogby did something well.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:51:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mini Tornadoes (none / 0)

I seriously don't think we can count on this no matter who gets nominated. If the GOP primary were still being contested and the Dem one was all wrapped up, how many PA folks would vote in that primary on the GOP side? Doesn't mean they'd vote for either one in the general election, but they want to pick the one they either find least offensive or think would be easiest to beat.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:33:44 AM EST

Re: Mini Tornadoes (none / 0)

And don't just brush off the impact of Rush's strategy. Maybe it didn't spread directly from him, but there are quite a few people out there who listen, and they tend to have wingnut friends, too.

I swear I am not being a sore loser, if anything, this makes me start thinking about the validity of the earlier concerns about Obama getting too many Repubs.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:38:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ignore the decimal point (2.00 / 1)

and it's double digits.


The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't.
by Liberal Avenger on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 01:34:12 AM EST

Re: Mini Tornadoes (none / 0)

Amen
In Indiana, we have huge numbers of new Dem voters.  Dem voters will outnumber GOP primary voters for the first time in years.  PLUS we will finally be able to identify our Dem voters because of the contested primary.  We have open primaries, and even some strong Dems will vote in the GOP primary for contested Judge races or other local races.  

PLUS Indiana has this Voter ID law (the modern equivalent of the unconstitutional poll tax).  The contested primary means that voters have time to fix their ID problems before the general election.  People denied the vote can get angry at the Republicans for taking away their vote.  This process is a huge win for Indiana.


by bakho on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 09:14:08 AM EST


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