so when is obama going to win a big state in, besides illinois? the chances are slipping away, and his expectations spin is pretty much an acknowlegement that he's going to fail again in PA. and it's getting late in the campaign.

i guess it's time to deputize indiana as a big state, and try to win there.

I feel (that gut thing) Clinton by 10-12.  Turnout extremely heavy in both Philly area and even heavier than expected heavy in Western PA.  Apparently also they are getting a lot of calls from potential voters who want to vote but never changed their registration, dunno what that is about.  

Anyway, 10-12, more likely 12.  Sniff.

Obama would be over 45% in the polls if this thing were truly close. We may be looking at a sleeper blowout here. Obama has slogged his way through since MS, and I peg him at 40% of the vote. Sorry Clinton haters.

Obama folds Pennsylvania tent to focus on hitting the ground in Evansville, Indiana today.  Obama's camp shouldn't count his NC chickens so soon.

Let's drive Hillary's momentum into North Carolina and attack his undefended stronghold, let's close the gap with NC Latinos and Asians for Hillary.  

Get Out the VOTE Hillary '08 GOTV.

lets all buy Jerome a drink tonight. cheers to a marvelous blog and level headed analysis. They dont call you the blogfather for nothing.

Regarding the 20 point lead that never was:

PPP (D)    03/15 - 03/16    597 LV    56    30    Clinton +26.0
SurveyUSA    03/08 - 03/10    608 LV    55    36    Clinton +19.0
Strategic Vision (R)    03/07 - 03/09    600 LV    56    38    Clinton +18.0
ARG*    04/12 - 04/13    600 LV    57    37    Clinton +20.0

do I need to go on?

Also hoping for a nice Ron Paul protest vote today as well.

That would embaress McSame, and Philly was a stronghold of Paultardianism.

Under 5

12% to 14%. Hold on to your hats folks, it's going to be an exciting night!

You know I'm sick of hearing how many resources Obama has put into PA the last 6 weeks, and how if he doesn't win the state it is a "poor showing".

1. This state is demographically tailor made for Clinton.

2. The Clintons have been campaigning in PA for 15 years and have strong roots there....To somehow think six weeks of resources (no matter the cost) would have a dramatic effect is just ignoring reality.

3. Clinton has the entire PA Machine behind her.

Clinton supporters can downplay PA as "a win is a win is a win" and spin it however they want.  The point is with each passing contest the Clinton spin will become less and less effective unless she has a unforeseen primary win(s).

As to the "never a 20% lead" comment -- http://www.pollster.com/08PAPresDemsZOOM r.php

shows that the lead was indeed 20% in January.  In February it began to diminish.

but it looks like 20 in January to me.

The February polling you cite was in context of Obama's post Super Tuesday string of 11 successive victories, coming back to earth in March after Ohio and Texas. Hence Clinton's average 13% margin.  And she did in fact have a 20% lead in only January poll taken, also in those taken at end 2007.  

I don't begrudge HRC supporters trying to spin the result as positively as possible on her behalf.  A win is a win.  That said, those citing Obama's ad spending advantage might also note Clinton's huge advantage in support from the state and city (both Philly and the Burgh) Democratic machines.  

Having lived in Pittsburgh for more than a decade I was pleased to learn that former mayor Sophie Masloff is still active, even if she did pledge her superdelegate vote to Clinton.  

c'mon double digits!  but i'm thinking it will be a CA & OH-type margin, 7 to 9% victory for Hillary.

And all hell breaking loose afterwards

The spreadsheet also gave Obama smaller-than-actual victories in Washington State, Maine, Wisconsin, etc. He's ahead of where the spreadsheet has him.

I'm sticking by my prediction yesterday:

Clinton by 17 or 15

HRC 58, BHO 41

or

HRC 57, BHO 42

The one thing that easy to see is this was never a "20 percent lead" by Clinton.

   contradict those of her husband, who said just a couple of weeks ago that she needs a BIG win in PA.

  might want to get their stories straight for spin tonite.

RCP and 535 are good reads for more on the expectations game.

Who's John McIntyre? What right does YET ANOTHER GUY have to tell a woman to quit?

Remember - no candidate who has won as many votes and delegates as Clinton hasn't taken the fight to the convention.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horsera ceblog/2008/04/unconventional_thoughts_o n_the.html

Clinton has gop women voting for her.

Clinton by 20.

At a certain point, "expectations" cease to matter.  The endgame here is really whether Clinton can eek out a popular vote win by the end of the primaries.  If she can't, she really has no argument to make to the supers at all.  Keeping that in mind, even a high single digit win in PA -- with its extremely favorable demographics -- just aint gonna cut it.  

Also, the 3:1 $ argument strikes me as a red herring.  Sure, he outspend HRC significantly.  But she and Bill have campaigned in PA and had a huge presence there for years.  Moreover, Rendell's machine has been at her disposal the entire election.  That has huge value that at least equals the $ Obama spent.  Not to mention, he was spending cash in part to offset the worst set of external events imaginable.  

To that last point, would you really have guessed things would be even this close if I told you immediately after Mississippi that Rev. Wright would happen, and that bitterage would then follow?  

Ah, yes, the typical pre-election Clinton goalpost move. Where should it be this time? The 50 yard line? The 60?

She needs a blowout for it to matter one bit. 10-12 point win won't do it.

And whil the "3-1 spending" gets mentioned here, other blogs mention Obama's month from hell, and Hillary's relatively easy ride -- something that doesn't get mentioned here.

(And don't anyone try that "Obama had it easy" routine. You'd have thought with Wright and Bitter (my new favorite pub) Obama was finished if you had only the screeds here to base it on. So any closing of the polls by him require that caveat if it's going to be similarly belittled with the spending meme.)

That said, odds are it'll be a decent Clinton win, something her supporters should enjoy. The hangover of what it ultimately means to her electoral prospects -- and Obama's -- is something we'll all begin to deal with, hmmm, Friday?

hahaha, Jerome you don't cease to amuse me with your "unbiased" observations! I remember how 6 weeks ago you wrote a WHOLE big post about how it was exciting a poll had come out for Clinton leading by 20 points.. you were like WOW, WOW, WOW..hahaha and now you are trying to set your own expectations game. Just know that everybody can see right through it, you are trying to set the expectations low for Clinton and the Obama people are trying to set the expectations for Obama low and That's all there is to it!!! Clinton used to lead by 20 points and that's evaporated.. and So What!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106738/Gallup -Daily-Obama-Maintains-National-Lead.asp x

For what it's worth.

Jerome's reference to "all the advantages Obama has."  Jerome knows as well as all of us that Pennsylvania is a singularly advantageous state for Clinton, but he says silly things like this anyway.

It would be like me saying that I can't believe Obama is leading by so much in North Carolina despite all the advantages Clinton has there.

The best thing Clinton and mydd.com has to offer Pennsylvania is polling.  Just in case you're curious why we keep losing elections.

According to jerome, Obama is the favorite in PA since he has spent the most money..hahahaha

same margin as Massachusetts 15%

I have learned that the blogosphere is always wrong. Whatever the blogs say, bet on the exact opposite happening.

Therefore I'm taking the median of both the inverse of the dKos consensus (Barack and Jay-Z will beat the bitch by eleventy-kajillion points!) and the inverse of the mydd consensus (HRC by 12-14 points).

That means an Obama win by tenty-kajillion, 999 bajillion, 999 quatroons, 999.

   Clinton 54%
   Obama   46%

  Clinton claims big win...Obama claims stalled Clinton momentum. Clinton doesn't get the popular vote count necessary to catch Obama, nor the necessary amount of delegates.

  If Clinton, for some reason, loses...we'll suddenly hear how when she said PA was a must win, she really meant IN.

I predict . . . an Obama win!

I have seen from more than one source:

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepa ge/20080420_The_big_switch__Democrats_st eadily_gaining_in_region.html?imageId=76 71609

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2008/ 4/20/173938/448

Basically, the districts that showed the most growth during the registration drives were in areas favoring Obama.  In Clinton strongholds, new registration was almost flat.

ADD to it the fact that most polls are underrepresenting these voters, could be a recipe for an upset. . .

In all honesty, I don't see Obama winning, but if he runs up large margins in Philly and vacinity, and Pittsburgh metro, this will be inside of 5 points.

   I love how Jerome tries to spin PA as a lost advantage for Obama.

  It's not that Hillary won both OH and NJ on either side. It's not as if New York borders Pennsylvania...I heard a rumor that Hillary and NY are close...oh wait she lives there!

  But yes, PA should've been an Obama stronghold...RIIIIIIIIIIGHHHHHHHHHHHTTTT TTTT!!!!!!

  Very nice.

The one thing that easy to see is this was never a "20 percent lead" by Clinton [since Super Tuesday on Feb 5th].

{{{spin}}}

The one thing that easy to see is this was never a "20 percent lead" by Clinton

Jerome...I think you've been reading my posts.  I am not a Clinton fan by any means, or Obama for that fact, but I am really tired of hearing how he was down "20-30 points" just a "couple of weeks ago."  Your Feb, Mar, and Apr analysis shows it's just poppycock.

Rendell's prediction:

The guv said that, if the turnout is even through the state, Clinton will win by 6 to 10 points.

If turnout is heaviest in the Philly burbs, Clinton wins by 4 to 6 points, Rendell said.

I'd take those spreads.

I'm posting this now to hopefully forestall any future revisions of history.

And 4 days after TX and OH hey had her 19 points up. If she doesn't pull double-digit win (exceeding expectations, right?) then she'll get about the same 'bounce' she got out of TX and OH, which means temporary and minor (3-5 pts).

The way I set my expectation I think is the best of all: If Clinton comes out of Penn. needing a lesser percentage of the pledge delegates left in order to win the nomination, she has 'won,' but if she falls back in term of the percentage of the delagates left she needs to win the nomination, than she has 'lost.'

what's the sweet spot, where Clinton neither 'win' nor 'looses,' but stays the same?

The way I set my expectation I think is the best of all: If Clinton comes out of Penn. needing a lesser percentage of the pledge delegates left in order to win the nomination, she has 'won,' but if she falls back in term of the percentage of the delagates left she needs to win the nomination, than she has 'lost.'

what's the sweet spot, where Clinton neither 'win' nor 'looses,' but stays the same?

"undecideds either will or will not break for Clinton in Pennsylvania."

Wow, I should be a pollster! Here's my first prediction:

Either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will win today's primary.

and by 14-19% in the four polls after 3/4/08 (when the race shifted to PA proper), has enjoyed major institutional advantages including having Rendell and Nutter on her side, significant demographical advantages and, of course, having close family ties. Therefore, she ought to win by 20% or more.

Besides, she needs to win all of the remaining contests by 20-25% to have any shot at getting the pledged delegates lead, and if she can't match that target in PA, where else can she?


See spreadsheet: papolls