MS-01 Special Election Results Thread

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:16:44 PM EST

Here are the results out of the special election in Mississippi's first congressional district, which was left open by Roger Wicker's move up to the Senate:

Note: This one's going to a May 13 runoff -- very exciting stuff given the hard Republican slant of the district (and the fact that the two Democrats in the race combined to receive more than 50 percent of the vote).

Travis Childers (D): 33,138 votes (49.4 percent)
Greg Davis (R): 31,066 (46.3 percent)

100 percent of precincts reporting (as of 11:16 PM Eastern)

Note, this is an R+10 district, according to the Cook Political Vote Partisan Voting Index, meaning the district tends to lean about 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. If this margin holds -- and I'd underscore that it's still quite early -- this would be a huge upset.

Update [2008-4-22 21:6:50 by Jonathan Singer]: There are other candidates in the race, so the totals listed above add up to less than 100 percent of the vote. If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, there will be a runoff held. However, here's to hoping that Childers stays above that magic mark...

Update [2008-4-22 21:28:52 by Jonathan Singer]: Wow. This 10-point margin has been holding up for a long while. There are still a lot of votes to count, but if Childers pulls this off...

Update [2008-4-22 21:35:31 by Jonathan Singer]: Tightened up quite a bit here. Remember, as long as neither candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, there will be a runoff.

Update [2008-4-22 22:2:1 by Jonathan Singer]: Tightening up again. Davis' lead had been 52-44 recently, now it's back to 50-46. A real nail-biter.

Update [2008-4-22 22:8:2 by Jonathan Singer]: Davis is back under 50 percent. Looks like we may be headed to a runoff -- and a competitive one, at that.

Update [2008-4-22 22:25:47 by Jonathan Singer]: Childers has retaken the lead. Any chance yet he can get back above 50 percent? Here's to hoping (though forcing a runoff in an R+10 district is still an accomplishment)...

Update [2008-4-22 22:53:57 by Jonathan Singer]: It looks like this one is going to a runoff. What an achievement! This was an overlooked special election in a district that tends to lean about 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. And yet, the leading Democratic candidate received 49 percent of the vote, and the two Democratic candidates in the race have received just north of 50 percent of the vote, combined, with 99 percent of precincts in. I say once again, these are horrible days for the Republican Party.




Tags: MS-01, Special Election, House 2008 (all tags)

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Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Davis just got a big chunk.  With 13% in the margin is down to 51-44.

If this goes to a run-off we may still have a chance, but winning this outright would be huge.


by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:09:44 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

16% in, Childers back up 53-43.

The defeated Democrat and the defeated Republican (Holland and McCullough) are both taking 2% each.


by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:16:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow (none / 0)

Believe it or not, this is the race I've been following for the last few days, and Swing State Project has (as always) provided great coverage.

I mean, Pennsylvania was a foregone conclusion, the only thing that matters is spinning the margin. This is a real race.

Thanks for not forgetting about it tonight, Jonathon. Any chance you'll post the other PA primary results? I hear there's a competitive Democratic primary in English's seat, and a bloody GOP primary in PA-10.


Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:11:38 PM EST

Huge win (none / 0)

Childers is hanging above 50%. We have a real chance here.


by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:17:29 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (2.00 / 1)

Gosh this really really would be huge if we take this district...


by blueflorida on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:18:35 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

If they can't hold this one, they're on track to lose 40+ seats in November.

25% in and still Childers is up 53-43.  Getting a good feeling here...


by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:22:02 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

40% in, same margin.


by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:26:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

46% in, suddenly Childers is down 46-50?!  Davis literally just pulled several thousand votes out of nowhere with Childers barely getting anything.  The vote reporting must be split pretty bad between Childers and Davis areas.


by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

61% in, Childers down 44-52.  This turned bad fast.  Hopefully Childers still has some favorable counties left.


by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:37:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (2.00 / 0)

probably desoto county votes


by blueflorida on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:41:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (2.00 / 0)

Yep, DeSoto county just came in for Davis which just produced his big boost. Most of what's left should be favorable for Childers.


by blueflorida on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:45:28 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Down to a difference of 352 votes...


by blueflorida on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:18:17 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Hey, follow the link and look at the race listed below this one. Can't get much closer than that (with 100% in).


The best sig is no sig.
by Noonan on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:26:52 PM EST

She did well in the counties surrounding (1.00 / 2)

Philadelphia and Obama really needed to do well there to keep it close...


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:30:10 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Childers just took the lead...by 338 votes. We're pretty clearly headed for a runoff.


by blueflorida on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:30:44 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Actually, check that. Childers just may get to 50%. He won Calhoun which was unexpected. He's got favorable precincts in Prentiss & Clay county still out.


by blueflorida on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:36:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

This thing is tighter than a tick: 99% of precincts reporting and Childers is at 49%.


by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:43:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Damn! I didn't think a Democrat could ever win this district. If Childers pulls it off, we have three of the four Mississippi Congressional districts for the Dems.


by elrod on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:42:59 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Just missed it! I hope the runoff goes his way....


by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:45:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

minor candidates (none / 0)

How did the rest of the vote break?  That 3-4%
will a big factor in the runoff.

This confirms that we're headed for divided government in the fall.  The Democrats will do better in Congress than than the presidential race.


by mikelow1885 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:52:06 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Heck, I did not know there was an election, and this is my district. What the heck is going on here?


by Check077 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:52:45 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Well check it out!


Please visit Cotton Mouth to support Mississippi progressives.
by cottonmouthblog on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:48:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (2.00 / 1)

This shows just how angry and frustrated people are everywhere in this country with Bush and his Republican enablers. I think this shows that Democrats might pick up a lot of unexpected seats, even far out ones like the two Senate seats in Wyoming or the Senate seats in Alabama and South Carolina or dozens of House seats that the pundits are now calling "Safe Republican".


by RandomNonviolence on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:01:10 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Runoff it is.

Time for the DCCC to dump a few hundred grand here.  They can afford it.  We won't get many other chances at pickups for that kind of money in November.  They spent 2-3 million each for a few seats in 2006 and still lost them.


by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:49:30 PM EST

Re: MS-01 Special Election Results Thread (none / 0)

Is Greg Davis the more conservative or less conservative of the Republicans in the primary?

KO mentioned this race when it was still having its primary; something to do with dittoheads registering as democrats having the unintended consequences of knocking the "true conservative" out of the race, and likely throwing the whole election to the democrat.


by Mostly on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:36:05 AM EST


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