by Jonathan Singer, Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:08:22 AM EST
Here are some actual numbers:
√ Hillary Clinton: 1,258,245 votes (55 percent) Barack Obama: 1,042,297 votes (45 percent) 99 percent of precincts reporting (as of 2:03 AM Eastern)
√ Hillary Clinton: 1,258,245 votes (55 percent) Barack Obama: 1,042,297 votes (45 percent)
99 percent of precincts reporting (as of 2:03 AM Eastern)
Tags: Pennsylvania Primary, Pennsylvania, Democratic Primaries (all tags)
Anybody know how the results come in? Do cities report late or early? Which parts of the state come in first?
Typically cities are the last to report. Has been the case in several states so far this season.
times says that the rural areas will actually be the rear here.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 04/22/what-to-watch/
Right now, it looks like a double-digit margin, just what she needed
Philly comes in first.
If you look at CNN they have a county-by-county map - you can see what percent of each county has been counted - so far most of Phili and Pittsburg have been counted - so Clinton's margin will probably widen as the rural votes come in since most rural counties are still at 40 % or so...
I've seen. You can measure how they are doing against how they are expected to do in each district.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4 /22/11912/6533/642/500733
SCOTUS just ruled 6-3 stop counting ballots!
Did they give it to Gravel in exchange for his agreement to pay his credit card bills?
Isn't Hillary the one in the red?
OK, that one made me laugh out loud. Two points.
Here ya go http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/state/#PA
if ya scroll down they will have county breakdown.
The most exciting part of those results is the right side of the screen. So far it looks like 30% are voting for someone other than McCain!
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/E lectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&a mp;ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
FOX NEWS project Hillary win!
GO HILL!
would mean I would have to watch faux news.... eeewww.
But the outcome... good!
I never thought I would say this, especially back in 2004 when Fox News basically carried all of Bush II's Iraq water and helped him win, but Fox News is the fairest with CNN coming in second, to Democrats, especially Hillary, this cycle. I don't know who that shrill woman with the short hair on MSNBC is, but between her and Tweety, I feel like throwing my TV out the window.
Do you think that has anything to do with Clinton's recent cozy relationship with Murdoch and Melon-Scaife?
Just saying.
This is going to be close.
Rachel Maddow? Seriously?
You're praising FOX but busting on Maddow?
This primary has gone on too long. People are going crazy.
Maddow is in the upper echelon of intelligence within the chattering class. I would normally consider this a dubious honor, but she far exceeds her peers.
The cognitive dissonance is ridiculous.
I prefer, "teh stupid, it burns."
Hey I am a lesbian. I use to listen to Rachel on AA. But after this primary I can say I wouldn't Kiss that woman with someone else's mouth.
Good grief.
LOL.
That's all it got on that one.
Seriously...?? From the same outfit that brought you "Saddam Hussein was behind 9-11...."
I wouldn't trust them on the time of day....
...or the claims made by any of their advertisers.
Not to put words in your mouth, Jen, but that's how I'd finish out your true statement.
Not sure who advertises on Faux News since I do not watch them, but sure....
Obama performance in the Philly subs is shocking, exits have it at over 60%... the campaign thought that if they won Bucks, Deleware, etc. Co. they would win the election. I don't think that was completely accurate. But, Bowers is saying it is... I'm going with Clinton by 5. However, much had been made of Obama doing poorly in "White Flight" regions - I cannot think of a better example better than Levittown PA, and it looks like he is winning.
I agree. Obama's performance is extraordinaily weak. From the demographics its clear he would not be able to beat McCain in PA this fall. Hillary would beat McCain with ease in PA.
On to Denver!
It's looking like President McCain
Well that is not really true... you cannot like primary performance with general performance. Otherwise you have to make the reverse argument... Clinton is week amongst AA's, Youth, and "Latte Liberals" she'll lose a lot of states if she does not turn them off. Frankly, if the Supers decide against the pledge leader, rather you like it or not, there will be major problems. I'm not trying to be scary here. But, can you imagine what happens at universities across the country if in Denver on the second ballot Pelosi stands up an announces Pledged Delegates Obama-1900 Clinton-1800 Super Delegates Obama-400 Clinton-505. It would be a terrible moment for our party. You saw the reaction to ABC after the debate. Imagine that times 100.
She won't lose NY, but it is worth noting her fav's there have fallen to 47/49.
This election is in 2008 not 1986. The so called "Reagan Democrats" are not as large as a demographic chunck as they were for Reagan and Clinton. You have to look at where Population has expanded, and who these 'new' persons to society are, so Vagas, Denver, Portland, Seattle, Charlotte, etc.
Obama still performs better, relatively, in national head-to-heads... though both there numbers are depressed by the primary continuing.
Breaking..CNN has called it for McCain!!!...be interesting to see how many vote Huck and Paul end up with...
Paul had 15% last time I checked, with 74% for McCain. Only partial results that I saw a few minutes ago.
FOX PROJECTS HILLARY WINS!
How much did they project she won by?
Any idea where we can find results from the PA-03 primary (Go Waltner!)?
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
well THAT was depressing.
thanks
NBC CALLS IT
MSNBC calls it for Clinton. No surprise I guess. Now, about that margin....
Clinton Landslide in Luzerne Co. 75-25
Luzerne Schuylkill Carbon all 76-24
Look for similar results in Lackawanna, Wyoming, and Susquehanna
52-48 wont cut it out of philly
With 12% reporting:
Obama - 52% Clinton - 48%
I'm surprised results in Philadelphia are so close. Maybe it's just a quirk of which polling stations have reported and which haven't.
With 22% reporting:
Obama - 54% Clinton - 46%
(please note I'm talking about Philly only)
not nearly enough!
MSNBC reported that Philly went to Obama 69%, according to exits. I think that is probably a little high, but I expect his margin will grow larger than the presen spread (8 points). The first precincts to report in philly had it tied, with more recent reports favoring Obama more considerably. It may just be that some Clinton-friendly precincts reported first. Or, maybe the exit polls are just way off. Either seems possible.
With 28% reporting:
Obama - 55% Clinton - 45%
CNN Calls Pennsylvania for Hillary.
CNN allocates 28 delegates to Clinton.
there wrong... firstly they count supers...and that really shows no knowledge of how delegates are allocated.
Actually, no, it is only pledged delegates.
Oh, I just looked at the bottom of the screen. I'm doubtful they can do that yet, because so many of Clinton's districts require a 63% win to break - and it is going to be real close rather she gets that or not.
uhh.. it looks like she slammed the turnout outside philly. the GOTV people on Hills side scored a voctory tonight (probably their first). ;)
The sad thing is what these polls should be telling BO supporters is that he can win without HRC on the ticket but my guess is BO and his supporters will go nuts. I have even heard his supporters say they would vote for McCain if HRC was on the ticket.
david
huh? These polls say he can win without her?
I think Tapper is spot on. At what point is it not clear you are missing a big part of the population of supporters? Both candidates look weak right now because they cannot consolidate support. She with her early bufoonery as the frontrunner. He is all establishment now--what is the hold up? How come the flocks have not emerged?
Oh, those damn voters and their preferences!
They should tell you that BO does really bad with Reagan dems!!!! And IMHO BO can not win without these dems. You can think anything that you want. But no dem has won the GE or the popular vote without these democratic voters.
LHJ, Carter, Clinton, and Gore. Just saying i have ever seen a northern dem win the GE and these voters are why. Kerry won the independent vote in 2004 and still lost the GE by 2%. BO can not win imho without these voters and lets be clear he has not connected with them.
Look at the counties elsewhere - they're going like 70/30 for Hillary. The only reason the state as a whole appears close is becuase 2/3 of the vote counted so far is coming from Philly.
sorta like texas http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/state/#TX
and ohio http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/state/#OH
Is that Philadelphia only has 20% of the votes, but, in what has been counted so far, Philadelphia has accounted for nearly 2/3 of the votes. Philadelphia is Obama's base, and if he's trailing by 8-points with a Philly-centric sample, he's going to lose by a lot once the rest of teh state comes in.
Dave is spot on--look at the turnout outside philly(--who doesnt love these interactive maps!) It looks huge-- I think the increase in turnout across the state reported in another thread might obscure the underlying magnitude of the increases outside philly.
I wonder if she'll get the 25% spread she needs to begin making any kind of headway in pledged delegates?
Heh. Just kidding. She won't.
Sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. Reality. I never expected Obama to win PA, but Clinton needs a 25 point spread (and 20 points in each remaining primary) to catch up in pledged delegates.
This race is over.
Is a little grace too much to ask from you? Try this: "Congrats to Hillary and her supporters." It won't hurt, I promise.
Congrats to Hillary and her supporters.
Actually there are other states that haven't voted yet. I realize that counting every vote is not on everyone's priority list, though.
No one I saw.
Love the spin there. Obama tried to win it. Tried his best. Outspent HIllary 2 t o1.
It looks like Hillary won double digits.
Obama cannot even say that he beat expectations.
If the popular vote margin is over 200,000, this is a good night for Clinton. If not, well...
I agree that +200,000 is the good night point for her.
If she can lose less votes on May 6 than she gains tonight, she has a good chance at the Clinton goalpost popular vote thing
10 pt spread so far
Also - 2/3s of Obama's total votes so far are out of Philly area
RON PAUL WINNING IN ARMSTRONG COUNTY!
Go Ron Paul!! =P
County that is.
19% in, 69-31 for Hillary
the most votes, Obama country, and he's still down.
National Review Online is reporting that Clinton won the black vote 98%-2%. The Huffington Post has the details.
of people who cannot read a poll?
Tim Russert, Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman are amazing. Hillary just wins a major primary, and they cant stop attacking the Clintons. Pathetic.
if she were a gentleman, she would step out.
i got hide rated for snark? f^^! if you cant take a joke. Matthews is totally broadcasting his misogyny.
Many comments perceived as pro-obama/anti HRC get hide or troll rated
so it goes
Major...and all but meaningless to the final result.
I watch the same stuff on TV and no one is attacking the Clintons. In fact, they go out of their way to pretend this win actually matters.
You can get rid of that tag line.
But I agree, these results so far way overrepresent Obama's support, since more than half of it is coming from Philadelphia.
Yes. Philly is 50% in already.
what is the hold up in the philly suburbs? did they keep some polls open or something?
50% of the PENNSYLVANIA vote counted is coming from PHILADELPHIA. Normally, only 20% of the Democratic vote in Pennsylvania comes from Philadelphia.
That's because Philly is 50% is (vs. in the low 20s for the entire state).
Clinton's margin will increase.
It's about people, not counties.
At 31% Reporting, Hillary is at a 10 point lead.
she is winning alot of those counties by 70%.(yes, salad days and all.) I thought she wasnt supposed to do that?
a significant number of delegates.
Actually, they both need supers to win and are making the arguments to get their votes.
Mine is simple.
Clinton will win the general easlily if the Dems want to win this time and not lose three in a row.
"They both need supers" is equivocating.
Obama needs a small percentage of superdelegates. Clinton needs a large percentage of superdelegates.
Nobody has been able to win a large percentage of anything in this race to this point, and it isn't likely to begin now.
Is it true that no Democratic candidate has ever won the White House without winning Penn? That's what I thought I heard Sen. Casey say tonight.
i thought that was Ohio?
Yeah, it's Ohio for Republicans.
??? How could ANY candidate overcome such huge negatives?
Clinton winning the GE just can't happen. Her stark negatives are simply too strong and have dogged her all along.
Its a bummer. But that is the way it goes.
Yeah, there is the one candidate with the very high negatives, and then there is the candidate she beat in every battleground state (by a healthy margin, no less).
(McCain said that during a fund raiser.)
]{
If Clinton maintains this margin, she'll end up netting about 150,000 more popular votes. Obama will double that in North Carolina. She's not going to catch up on that front.
Clinton can't win the pledge delegate count. Time for her to be a true American and get out of this circus.
(No wonder everyone over at News Corps. have given the maximum amount to her campaign)
As usual, when Clinton wins, she loses. When Obama loses, he wins. Are we having fun yet?
That's what happens when you insist on staying in a race you have no chance of winning, long past when tradition and party interests would say you drop out.
uhh.. what tradition had dropping out in late April?
Cite a race, please.
Tradition says you drop out when you have no realistic path to victory, thus preventing the sort of party-fracturing, general-election throwing acrimony we are all seeing now.
Looks to me like you're a big part of that acrimony.
shrug. I'll be voting for the Democratic candidate either way.
It's not acrimonious to offer an explanation for a phenomenon someone noticed, and to explain my post when asked.
please note you offer no races as an example and I can think of none. Keep clinging to your "tradition" thigh. Lord knows the Dems hate to appear fractious and bickering.. oh wait....
Hmm. Where can I think of an example of where a candidate dropped out earlier than expected because he knew he had no chance of winning and didn't want to hurt his party's chances in November?
Where could I ever find such an example?
Screw tradition..
because it also says that a black man with middle name Hussein cannot be the president of United States..
Can't have it both ways, my friend.
This is also what happens when the front-runner can't "close the deal" like past nominees have done.
i think this cuts both ways at this point. they are sharing a paddle up the creek.
Agreed. It's an ugly lesson in game theory.
Hey fox news agrees with you.
What does that say?
You tell me. You seem to have the answer.
It is amazing, isn't it? Nothing new, but still amazing.
Survey USA is about to nail another contest. They predicted Clinton by 6% and that's how it stands as I write this.
Her margin will likely increase, since Philly is already 50% in.
i think it will spread to something more like 8 or 10. She is killing him outside Philly and she should be really strong in those Philly suburbs if her support from the ladies holds.
Obama gave it his best effort, but she delivered.
Did Terry McAuliffe just kiss Fox News' *ss and call them fair and balanced with a straight face? Seriously??
Hooray, hooray. It looks like it will be more than 10%. i hope. outspent 3-1 and still kickin ass.
Surely you cannot say MSNBC is fair and balanced with a straight face, can you?
The CNN exit has been reweighted: now C55 - O 44 or smth like that
Guys, help me figure out what "PPP" stands for. Remember that PPP had Obama up by 3% yesterday, contrary to what other pollsters said. I have two ideas:
1-) PPP=Poor Pathetic Pollster 2-) PPP=Poor Pennsylvania Predictor
piss poor pollster
@ 42% reporting, over 2 million voters came out
HELLOOOOOO
-- 28,604-vote difference
√ Hillary Clinton: 417,187 votes (54 percent) Barack Obama: 348,778 votes (46 percent)
37 percent of precincts reporting (as of 9:51 PM Eastern)
-- 417K-348K = 28K ???????
some Obama voters are counted twice. More important. ;)
Seriously, something needs to be done about the TX caucus. They should petition the caucus. Something needs to be done about the WA primary, which did not count. MUCH more people voted in the primary than the caucus, yet it does not count. Democracy at its finest.
What are we expecting in the Philly burbs of Chester and Montgomery counties? So far no results, but in Bucks so far it is Clinton 67-33.
Latte drinking, butter buying ladies (and sometimes their husbands)....
Should probably trend toward Hillary but if she takes them by more than +5 the exit polls are all out wrong about some of the demographics of the race (particularly educ & income). Exit polls: very cool, very useless.
Its time for Barry to show some class and step down. Hes finished. He needs to get behind Hillary and let us win this damn thing.
Which election are you watching exactly?
Is it the one where one candidate had a 20 point lead a few weeks ago and pissed it away?
Or the one where one candidate is massively outraising the other, to the point where he can actually compete in a state that's heavily weighted towards the other candidate?
Or maybe it's the one where one candidate has won more states, more popular votes and has gotten 4 times as many superdelegates to pledge to him since February?
Where in there is Obama losing, exactly?
Yeah George Soros and David Geffen and the latte sippers on billionaires are keeping him alive financially. This big win proves he can't buy the election.
My god
Has the Clinton camp sunk that Low?
You now dissing the MULTIUDE of small donors he has received? His fundraising and reaching out to the small donors is an amazing accomplishment. I understand, you like HRC, but don't belittle such a HUGE feat
