Other exit poll reports have Clinton ahead by 4.

Exit polls have been pretty inaccurate.

Personally, I say -- lots of folks are still voting. Too early to tell.  Voting gets done at 8 and then let's wait to count the votes.

so many times this election, that no one should take them seriously.

Second, when drudge has basically the same numbers but with Clinton ahead, I wonder if the leaks are even accurate.

I never believe the exit polls on african american voters. Too much social pressure to say they voted for Obama. I think they overestimate his support.

BTW: I'm an Obama supporter.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Till then, I'm expecting a 20-point Hillary win. Anything less than that is her epic fail.

I just hope Obama can keep it within 5-10 points.

A win would be excellent, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

good I am glad he is starting strong, he needs a cushion, because Hillary will easily surge. now I am thinking a 6-7 point loss is possible, man I can't wait for the polls to close.

I still say 54-46 Clinton

While these look favorable to Obama so far (if we make the huge assumption they are accurate), what is also very important is what percent of the electorate is made up of seniors, women, and African-Americans.  The percent of seniors is very high so far, although I assume they are much more likely to vote early in the day.

Too early, and there is some strange demographics break-outs in the exit polls?

We all just have to wait.

I think I've used this saying at least 3 times: if exit polls were accurate, Kerry would be running for reelection right now.  I apply this logic both in terms of primary results and whenever people make the inane "real Democrats choose Hillary" argument.

if the almost impossible happens and Obama wins, what should Hillary do?

Women
Clinton 55%
Obama 44

Men
Clinton 47%
Obama 53

And if those demographical numbers (ignoring overall ones) are right, it looks like I was correct

My calculations:
AP has 'a little more than half' of voters to be female. I'll interpret that to be ~53-47

Lets say that of the voters, 41% are white women, 10% are African-American women, 36% are white men, 8.5% are African-American men, 4.5% other (Latino/Asian/etc) That means an African-American turnout of 18.5%, which seems reasonable, especially with stories of heavy turnout in SE PA

In OH, Clinton won white women 67-31. Lets say that its 66-34 here and Obama improved 4 points, which seems reasonable (he improved 7 points among white men.)

In OH, the 'other' vote appears to have been close (with no specific numbers), so I'll split it 50-50.

Using the released numbers from the exit polls and assuming Obama has similar support from male/female African-American voters, that leads to:
Clinton - 50.4%
Obama - 49.6%

Part of the key to this is that Obama is apparently doing extremely well against African-American voters (92%!) in PA

CBS News has some early exit poll results up as well.  I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations based on their announcing that 70% of voters polled would be content with Clinton as nominee and 64% would be content with Obama.  At its face, this looks better for Clinton, but when you dig deeper you get a different story, because only 36% of Clinton voters would be content with Obama while 46% of Obama voters would be okay with Clinton.  Anyway, doing a little algebraic manipulations, it looks to me that CBS exit polls show Clinton with 91% of the vote that Obama gets.

If these exit polls are accurate that would seem to point to an upset for Obama (of course, I'm also assuming my math isn't cockeyed<g>).

race.

tease

blue collar workers for Obama 2-1??? That in itself is a good estimation that this exit poll is wrong.

Charlie Cook:

The best use of exit polls is to be able to look and say, approximately, how various demographic groups voted, after the election is over and after the data have been cleaned up.  Anything more and you are simply engaging in mental masturbation.

She needed a big win tonight.  The pressure for her to drop out will be massive if Obama is within 3-5 points of her tonight.

The fat lady (Monica L.) is warming up her voice.

I'm a avid Obama supporter but looking at the 20 fresh polls over the last 2 days, I think it's Clinton by 8pts.  

Obama always exit polls better than final.  

Clinton by 8, 10 net delegates, no change in the overall picture.  

If these polls are even close then its going to be a good night for Obama given media expectations. He should be winning comfortably but he's set the bar at 8-10pts for Hillary.

Obama isn't going to win PA.  I don't care what the exit polls say.  Hopefully he can keep his loss in the single digits.

Interesting CNN statistic that Markos somehow must have forgot to include.

Of people that made their decision based on watching the last debate: 58C, 42O

Just so we're clear about why the North Carolina debate was cancelled.

Probably around noon.  Until then, beer me.

Although they are not making an official projection, CNN on their web site said that their exit polls suggest that Clinton won the Pennslyvania primary as Obama's edge on new Democratic voters was offset by late deciding voters. They suggest that African-Americans went for Obama 92-8, but white males went for Clinton 55-45.

late deciders for hillary with 58%

The diary should be ashamed of himself for touting an NRO story that presents NO SOURCE WHATSOEVER.

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

That would be roughly a tie if AA's make up 20%

I am not worried.  I still think Hillary will win by 12-15%.

Still think Clinton by 12-14....

Exit polls have been not very reliable so far.

was exit polled this morning -

Looking at these exit polls, doesn't look like Clinton's going to pull out that big 12-15 point win that would give her a major boost she really needs.  I just see her money problems getting worse and worse without a big momentum boost to bring in the donations.  Of course these exit polls are crap and are prpbably completely wrong.  On the front page of Kos, it says Obama was +2 in exit polls at this time yet ended up -10.

Best comment I've seen in a while:

"We humans don't have much in the way of a probability filter"

Obama has tended to do better in early exit polls than in final results.

I suspect it is because his more fired-up supporters vote earlier

If the exit polls are wrong, I hope people will remember this before starting again with the "real Democrats" meme.  Exit polls are bunk.

Rendell was just on saying he thought Clinton would be by 6-8 points.

For everyone trying to say it doesn't matter if it's a narrow victory, remember that delegates are the final say of who's going to get the nomination. Margins matter because we don't run a first past the post system in the Democratic primary. Over 10 point margins are vital for Clinton because they start to tip 3-3 Congressional Districts into 4-2s, etc.

So while we can argue about the psychological boost or whatever of a 5 point win, at the end of the day numbers are an objective reality, and if you're behind by 140 in the fourth quarter you gotta start making big dents in your opponent's lead to say you're catching up.

Just a quick note...When Clinton supporters claim Clinton has won the big states like Ohio, Cal, PA, etc. and Obama can't win them in the GE, I just have to remind people he won a majority of the big cities and urban areas that Dems need to carry in the GE.  She gets a lot of her votes in rural areas in the big states that traditionally are a GOP stronghold.  Let's keep things in perspective...

If for no other reason than these exit polls were done FOUR HOURS (I'm including an hour for collection and processing in there) before the polls close they mean nothing. They could be a 100% accurate reflection of the voting up until 4 or 5pm and STILL be way off the final result.

Obama has already exited the state.  There's your answer.  It won't be a nailbiter or he would still be around.  

How could anyone actually report this National Review trash? The entire link reads like some bad Saturday Night live skit

A note, that if it stays roughly around 5 points Obama will actually walk away with more delegates.