MyDD :: Final PA Polls...Really

Final PA Polls...Really

by Todd Beeton, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:29:24 AM EST

There are three new polls out of PA, which were in the field yesterday and again there are some mixed messages, with Zogby and Suffolk showing double digit (and expanding) leads for Hillary Clinton, while Insider Advantage shows Clinton losing ground.

Candidate	Suffolk U 4/20-21 (4/19-20)	Insider Advantage 4/21 (4/20)	Zogby 4/20-21 (4/19-20)
Clinton	52 (52)	49 (49)	51 (48)
Obama	40 (42)	42 (39)	41 (42)
Undecided	6 (4)	9 (12)	6 (6)

Another uncertain indicator is undecideds. Depending on who is polling, they either are moving from Barack to undecided, from undecided to Barack or not at all. So who is to be believed? I've heard a couple pundits lately bullish on Obama's chances, feeling like the movement in the state is really in his direction, but this always seems to be accompanied by an underestimation of the extent to which the electorate is still torn even going into election day. When I was in Philadelphia I still sensed some indecision on the part of even ready made Obama voters, weighing Clinton's "get things done" model of the presidency with his inspirer in chief model. No matter how nationalized we think this election has been, people are having the same conversations in Pennsylvania in April as they were in California in February. So I think some of those who think Obama has a chance underestimate this; however, whereas just last week it looked as though undecideds defaulted to Hillary, Mark Blumenthal notes that that may no longer be the case.

So merely looking at the numbers above, part of me wants to amend my 8% Clinton win prediction upward, but then again my gut is telling me to hold off. Thoughts?

Update [2008-4-22 11:39:36 by Todd Beeton]:A-ha, and good old ARG is out with its final poll, also showing Clinton pulling away with 56-40, a 3 point net gain for her. For sake of comparison, in Ohio where Clinton ultimately won by 10%, ARG's final poll had her up 14%, Zogby had it tied up and Suffolk had Clinton up by 12%. What would have been helpful is if Survey USA had had a final poll, since they've been remarkably prescient this cycle to judge if the late breaking movement for Clinton is real. Right now it looks like it is.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, pennsylvania primary, hillary clinton, barack obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 106 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

Should Hillary win PA by over ten percent, then it will be time to ask Obama to concede his inability to win any large state that he is not a senator from and pull out of the race.

by krj47 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:31:50 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (1.50 / 2)

The MSM and the DNC will not allow that. Obama is their chosen one because they hate the Clintons more than they want to win in NOV.

by tiffany on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:35:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Cool, I didn't realize that being the FRONTRUNNER was meaningless. Point noted.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:12:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 3)

Sigh. A primary loss is not a general election loss. Nor will it be. PA will vote for a rusted car on cinder blocks over McCain.

You could also extrapolate:

Given Obama's month-from-hell in the media, Hillary's loss of 8 percent from where she polled a couple weeks ago means she should pull out.

Should Hillary win by 10-15 percent, and make no noticable dent in the delegate or popular vote catagories, especially once North Carolina and Indiana vote, she should pull out.

Frankly, no one should pull out. Lookit all those newly registered Dems in PA. Would that have happened had Clinton dropped out sooner? Or had Clinton won on Super Tuesday as she planned?

This ain't necc. a bad thing, although once the primary itself is over, it'd be nice to be able to focus on McCain again. The Wankuh.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:39:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Month from hell in the media???? (2.00 / 1)

Obama hasn't begun to get media hell yet. A couple tough debate questions don't amount to media scrutiny. I agree he had a bad month but the media cushioned its impact. They have the capacity to amplify it but chose not too.

by ineedalife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:44:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Month from hell in the media???? (2.00 / 1)

He cushioned his own impact by laughing at them and saying they're proving his point.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:51:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Month from hell in the media???? (2.00 / 2)

He would not be able to cushion the impact without the complicit help from the media. His very disappointing performance in the last debate was hardly covered in the news. the ABC moderators were chastised and blamed for Obama's cluelessness. The deia would have never done that for Hillary. Remember the diamonds or pearls, the UFO question, the piling on by Russert. Where was the outrage then?

by tiffany on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:03:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Month from hell in the media???? (none / 0)

Whoops! I meant the media would have never done that for Hillary

by tiffany on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:04:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Month from hell in the media???? (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, you're right. I haven't seen ANY negative coverage of Obama. It's all talking about Tezla. LOL.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:13:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Month from hell in the media???? (2.00 / 1)

Maybe it wasn't that disasterous of a performance.

I'm so tired of this "Media for Obama" meme. There is so much "guilt by association" that the GOP will go after Clinton with -- and lots of new ones that weren't part of the 90s.

The only difference is that one side says "The GOP will do it, so we will too." And the other says "The GOP will do it, and that's reason enough NOT TO."

I prefer the latter.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:05:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Month from hell in the media???? (2.00 / 1)

I remember that Clinton's patriotism wasn't ever questioned. That I remember. Her religious ties were never questioned. Who gives a shit about diamonds or pearls questions? That can't harm her in an election. If they said "why do you get so much foreign money? Who do you owe allegiance to?" That'd be different.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:10:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Month from hell in the media???? (none / 0)

There was plenty of derision for media stupidity before. Your hyper-sensitive Clinton radar wasn't tuned in for that tho.

"complicit help from the media"

I really hope the conspiracy theorists of the defeatist reactionary wing of the Democratic Party gets marginalized after this election tho.

A Democratic victory in November is important, no doubt. But building a 50 state party is much more important, far far more important. Hillary is not of that mold, and thus roundly disapproved of by those that seek to build a long term working majority that will take the Democratic Party back the days of FDR, and true progressivism.

by MuddyWaters on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:39:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Month from hell in the media???? (none / 0)

You're absolutely right. Never any whining about HRC's debate treatment. Just pure objective analysis.

If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:57:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow! Thanks for the laugh. That's the (none / 0)

whiniest thing I've heard all day:

Given Obama's month-from-hell in the media

Obama supporter working to defeat McCain.

by Rumarhazzit on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:35:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow! Thanks for the laugh. That's the (2.00 / 1)

sometimes it's hard to remember that only Clinton supporters are allow to whine about the media.

by bawbie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:41:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow! Thanks for the laugh. That's the (none / 0)

There was nothing particularly whiny about the parent post you're referring to.

Your hyperbole is a glaring artifact of cheerleading, not reality.

by MuddyWaters on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:41:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Will they vote for a rusted car over McCain?

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-Mv O.php

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-Mv C.php

by lb on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:10:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Hm. Will HRC be unable to win Illinois in the GE? She lost that big state to Obama by a ton. According to you this should have some bearing on her ability in the GE.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:43:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

uhhhhh...what?

If you assume that Hillary loses every state in the GE which she lost in the primary, what's the electoral math that shows her winning the general?

Take your time.

by Brannon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:49:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (1.00 / 2)

The 3 crappiest polls unite!

by rfahey22 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:33:10 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Interesting. The Obama echo chamber -- the MSM and fanboy bloggers -- have all settled on the 7-8 point line on this, which conveniently allows them to maintain that a loss in that range is akin to an Obama victory.

I thought we were railroaded into Bush, and I was right. But that was nothing compared to the railroading we're getting with Obama.

Notice now that Obama is the likely nominee Republicans are starting to let the mask slip. Hannity last night said Obama is now the weakest GE candidate. Gee, what a shocker.

by Jim J on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:35:02 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

Why do you listen to Hannity? I mean, really, do you think he has the Democrats' best interests at heart? Elevating Hannity to criticize another Democrat has to be one of the more puzzling developments this cycle.

by rfahey22 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:37:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:I listened to Hannity Yesterday on the Radio... (2.00 / 2)

And, heard his comments, and the context of what he was saying, and I think it was an honest, authentic analysis of the trending going on. I thought Hannity was expressing his genuine surprise at this development basically, because clearly he thought the GOP would never have a chance in the GE; it's clear now that some Republicans are beginning to have "hope" themselves that they could actually have a chance--if Obama's the nominee.

Like it or not, and you may well not: Obama is the weaker candidate in the general election. He may be able to pull of a shocker; but I highly doubt it. Obama as our nominee will mean McCain as our next president.

Listening to Limbaugh, Hannity, and even on occasion and for brief periods, it's good to hear what the opposition says. If you don't want to hear it, you might want to go on vacation for the next 6 months, because their message is coming to a media outlet near you, whether you want to hear it or not.

"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman

by Tennessean on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:51:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:I listened to Hannity Yesterday on the Radio... (2.00 / 3)

When Clinton was inevitable, they were all over her and praising Obama.

Now it looks like Obama so they're setting their sights on him.

Regardless of who the Democratic candidate is, those morons are going after them. If Jesus Christ were running Hannity would accuse him of having a drinking problem for having turned water into wine.

Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.

by SFValues on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:54:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:I listened to Hannity Yesterday on the Radio... (2.00 / 1)

Ok, well, forgive me if I think that your enthusiasm for your candidate has made you incredibly shortsighted. I hope you don't wet your pants in fear when they say that whomever our candidate is in the GE is doomed.

by rfahey22 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Same as the lefty blogs, such as TPM, KOs and Americablog using Drudge as their main source????

by tiffany on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:06:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Clinton's campaign actually has a Drudge liaison, did you know that? So, for better or worse, he's been "legitimized" by one campaign (even though that's backfired spectacularly).

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/22/a merica/drudge.1-156891.php

by rfahey22 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

A win of less than 12 for Hillary would be a loss... heck, she's polling in places as up 16. So an 8% loss for Obama is exceeding expectations.

You'll be doing the same thing in North Carolina.
And Obama win by less than 20 shows Hillary can win the south, or something. The only upcoming state where 50+1% is what you need to "win" is Indiana -- the last true could-go-anywhere primary.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:41:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

She needs upwards of 20 to (2.00 / 2)

make a dent.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:43:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Hannity is afraid of Obama! He knows he's the toughest one out there. Clinton would be a cupcake.

by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:03:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Hopeful thinking! Hannity really wants Obama because he is easy to portray as unpatriotic, clueless, anti white and wrong for America. I am not saying this is true but Hannity will brain wash Americans into believing this.

by tiffany on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:09:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Sure, because as Hannity goes, so goes the country!

by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:22:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

RightWingers don't say that crap to convince their own, they do it convince the opposition.

That's what propaganda is. And you've bought into it totally.

I hate to break into your stereotyping of America, but people don't vote on that garbage, regardless of how smart you think you are.

Those talking points are designed to change Democratic Base behavior, not the general electorate behavior.

While the Republicans are busy talking about issues, they can count on people like you to go on a snipe hunt for flag pins.

Meanwhile, the electorate wonders why the Democratic party is busy taking shots and hanging out in duck blinds with shotguns rather than talking about issues.

You see how that works? The power of the nonsense you mention disappears when Democrats stop reacting to it -- as it has no basis in reality.

Americans aren't stupid, but some Democrats are. And smart Republicans exploit that.

by MuddyWaters on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:52:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

I have yet to understand how the wife of a divisive president that never got over 50% of the vote is considered viable.

This is not '92 people. There is no Perot to split the Republican vote. Furthermore, primary voting is out pacing the GE vote from those years.

It's totally different. Bill was a fluke in '92. It never should have happened -- but it let the DLC slip their conservative hands around the Democratic mindset.

I don't begrudge people voting for Hillary, but the Hillary partisans bewilder me.

by MuddyWaters on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:18:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Add in ARG's too 56-40.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:36:02 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

So has anyone seen actual calculations for how big Clinton needs to win in PA in order to overtake Obama for the nomination?

by Pelerin on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:37:43 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

Over 20-25 and then at least 20 for the rest of the contests.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:43:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

How can Democrats be so stupid to go for a media manufactured, inexperienced neophyte like Obama??? We saw the same mistake with Bush but many did not learn their lesson. This country falls for image and does not care about substance. This primary says more about our country and we are in dire need of education and world knowledge. How can we be so dumb???

by tiffany on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:40:36 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

You're equating Obama with Bush? Interesting. Bush destroyed everything he touched and had a terrible academic record. Obama is the anti-Bush.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:45:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

In terms of experience on the national stage the comparison is valid. Certainly Obama will have better intentions, and thus will not pursue the same agenda...but is just as prone to make poor decisions in office...

People like to compare Obama to JFK...without recollecting what a disaster JFK's first 18 months were...

by SaveElmer on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:00:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Just as prone? There is no evidence of that.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

People voted for Bush because he was more likeable, not because he was smarter than Gore or Kerry. Bush was terrible in the debates and shoed his immaturity and inexperience but people voted for him anyway. Same with Kerry. Also, the same people bashed Gore as they are doingwith hillary. (Frank Rich, Dowd, Huffington, Sullivan) There are many similarities.

by tiffany on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Whoops again! I meant same with Obama. Obama does not do well in debates or when he is not scripted.

by tiffany on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:18:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 5)

Oh! Let me play too!

Ahem.

How can America be so stupid and go for Obama instead of the candidate I like. I'm smart, and America's lack of agreeing for me makes them SO DUMB. There obviously can't be any reason other than their total lack of intelligence to explain why they're not on the Clinton bandwagon.

God, Americans are so dumb. Also, people who prefer wines I don't like (heavy cabs, oversweet whites) and cars I don't like (crossover vehicles) or music that I don't like (hip hop, tween pop) are stupid stupid stupid!

And comparing Obama's lifetime experience to Bush's shows pretty clearly we're not in for another Bush. I'll take the law prof over an MBA, and a community activist over a patrician male debutante any day.

Oh, here's another one. Americans who think Obama will be like Bush are so dumb! Because I disagree!

Am I doing it right?

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:46:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

I really dislike crossover vehicles too. MOJO for that.

A few crossovers would be fine, a Murano, maybe a CX-7.

But now a company has to have 2-3 each to be competitive. They are still gas guzzling vehicles, without any of the off road capabilities of a true truck and without the economy of a mid-size sedan.

by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:00:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Son of former President, meet Wife of former President. There's the Neophyte nonsense that scares the hell out of me.

by MuddyWaters on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:20:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Here's an idea:

Maybe you should stop calling half the Democratic electorate "dumb" or "stupid" or "uneducated".

It doesn't make you look good.

by bawbie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:43:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Maybe people don't like confirmed liars and failures as President. Hillary has high negatives for a reason. She lies without batting an eye and her signature executive experience - leading the health care reform group in 1993-94 - was an utter failure.

by elrod on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:48:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Bushites voted for the name of Bush back in 2000 -- and Clintonites are now voting for the name of Clinton.

That's the actual similarity between then and now. That neither Clinton nor Dubya would have been a candidate if not for their last names.

by Aris Katsaris on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:15:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

What I don't get is the undecideds. Regardless of who they support, they have had months to look at the candidates and now six weeks of personal face time to make up their mind and they JUST CAN'T DO IT.

It's been about the same amount of undecideds the entires time, it drives me to distraction.

by MNPundit on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:43:51 AM EST

Reluctance to tell pollsters? (none / 0)

Some people just don't want to share with pollsters who they are voting for.

by ineedalife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:47:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If I never hear the word Pennsylvania (none / 0)

again as long as I live, that will be just fine. What a hellhole! Next state, please.

by ReillyDiefenbach on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:06:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

i hope its true, having been hanging out in kos comments sections i think the turnout seems to be for obama.

clinton fans i hope she gets 10% but early in the day its not looking good.

by zane on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:44:43 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

This Obama supporters says 10-15 but I also say that it won't make a dent in Obama's lead and any gains will be erased by NC & IN.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:47:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

I think she's going to win Indiana, narrowly.

I agree the gains are mostly erased by a landslide 2x PA in NC.

by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:57:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Indiana is a tight contest...

North Carolina is gone for Hillary...but she will have impressive victories in West Virgina and Kentucky...

by SaveElmer on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:58:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Indiana is tight now. Pennsylvania was Blowout 6 weeks ago. Obama has yet to play on the ground in Indiana -- a tie before he even gets to Indiana looks bad for Clinton.

by MuddyWaters on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:22:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Polls Look Very Good for Clinton... (2.00 / 1)

Zogby has undecideds breaking for Clinton:

Trends in PA favor Hillary Clinton on the eve of the vote: Undecideds break Hillary's way.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?I D=1486

InsiderAdvantage has Clinton with a 10 point lead, 49%-39%:

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/s torylink_421_351.aspx

But you really have to read the ARG report to see the devastation to Obama in this poll, Clinton 56%-Obama 40%:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 49% to 47% among men (44% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 61% to 35%.

Clinton leads 66% to 30% among white voters (81% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 86% to 11% among African American voters (15% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 53% to 44% among voters age 18 to 49 (51% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 59% to 36% among voters age 50 and older. Obama has a 3-to-1 lead among voters age 18 to 24, while Clinton leads 58% to 40% among those 25 and older (91% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 61% to 35% among voters without a college degree (64% of likely voters) and Obama leads 50% to 46% among voters with a college degree.

17% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 32% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Wow.

"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman

by Tennessean on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:44:49 AM EST

Re: The Polls Look Very Good for Clinton... (2.00 / 1)

Heheh. Is ARG going to be right for once or a goat still? I guess we'll see later today.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:46:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Polls Look Very Good for Clinton... (none / 0)

32% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

We learn that a third of the PA Democratic party are just neo-con idiots, not true Democrats.

by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:56:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Polls Look Very Good for Clinton... (none / 0)

Zogby has undecideds breaking for Clinton:

That really isn't true.

If you look at the day by day from Zogby, Obama had a very good Saturday, Hillary had a very good Sunday and yesterday was about in line with everybody else. The undecided number didn't move.

Sat: Obama +3
Sun: Clinton +15
Mon: Clinon +5

(I don't remember the exact numbers, but they are something like that)

It seems to me that you really shouldn't draw any conclusions from that, other than that Clinton is probably ahead and Zogby is certainly a shitty pollster.

by bawbie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:46:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Polls Look Very Good for Clinton... (none / 0)

32% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Why is it surprising to anyone that the supporters of the trailing candidate say they won't support the leading candidate? Of course they're digging in their heels and putting forth a "my way or the highway" sentiment.

I bet the numbers would be reversed if Obama was trailing and Clinton was leading. IMO it says very little about the supporters of either candidate, and is mostly reflective of human nature in contests.

Once Obama has the nomination, I fully expect a good portion of those Clinton-or-no-one folks to change their tune.

by ChrisKaty on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:50:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

Good and fair post.

Not having a favorite, it's nice to read an objective post.

Since I think you favored Obama (at least last year), I compliment you on your objectivity.

by TomP on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:45:58 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 3)

The post was fine, but Todd is a declared HRC supporter, for the record. Which is not a slam on my part -- Todd's analysis has been great througout.

by HSTruman on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:50:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

Agreed

Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.

by SFValues on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:56:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Thanks. I didn't know that. Based on last summer, I thought he was more sympathetic to Obama. I guess I have not kept track.

You started with Clinton, moved to Edwards, and ended up with Obama, right?

That gives you a good perspective.

by TomP on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:07:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 2)

I used to really like Hillary, and really wanted her to run in '04, but I never supported her this cycle. I was originally torn between Edwards (who I actively supported in '04) and Obama, but ultimately chose Obama.

In my ideal scenerio, Edwards ends up as the most active and succesful AG imaginable in an Obama administration and uses the post as a base for a 2016 run. Regardless, I remain hopeful that he's influential in the next administration regardless of who wins.

by HSTruman on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:20:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks. It is so hard to (2.00 / 1)

keep track of all folks who who their preferences were. I recall when you endorsed Edwards.

by TomP on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:31:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

I don't know about AG, but I wouldn't mind seeing Edwards serve some kind of roll.

I've never been a big fan of Edwards because of his senate record. But I did like the man's message and would like to see him get a chance to redeem himself.

However, putting someone with presidential aspirations in the AG roll could be a problem for a sitting president.

Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.

by SFValues on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:39:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

It could be, but I actually think he and Obama would work really well together on the issues likely to arise under an AG's portfolio. If that wasn't the case, then obviously you're right -- it would be a bad fit.

by HSTruman on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:47:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

What is 'MSM'?

by sunnyaz08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:49:46 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Mainstream media. Some don't like it...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/8 /15/1023/64571

by goshzilla on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:54:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Screw Hillary Clinton. (2.00 / 1)

And screw Barack Obama too. Whatever candidate wins, we need to focus on the Senate. From Franken/Nelson-Pallmeyer to Shaheen to Kleeb to Begich, Democrats NEED YOUR HELP.

Even if my candidate loses, because the election's stolen, or manipulated by the media, or the winner is too new, or been there too long, I will do everything I can to work my butt of for some darn good Senate candidates running this cycle. (And if my candidate wins, I'll work especially hard for her/him.)

by goshzilla on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:51:07 AM EST

Telling, Telling, Telling (2.00 / 1)

Obama barely cracks 40% in these polls.

60-40 anyone?

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:52:02 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Trust the Suffolk Poll, They are the only polling organization that had Hillary winning NH.

by CMFost23 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:54:59 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

They aren't statewide.

by elrod on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:45:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Suffolk 52-40 is for Allegheny County only (none / 0)

It's not a statewide number

http://www.suffolk.edu/28479.html

by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:55:19 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

A month ago...Remember the sudden shift of who should win? You know..."Popular Vote"...
Because of the huge number of potential voters in PA, the word was put out that Sen. Clinton by 20%
could make a significant challenge to Obama's popular vote lead..

(now remember this meme was not reality based but let us continue)

Well even 10 points is not going to cut it.

What I look forward to is the day when polls are gone..you know when 80% of the public are cell phone only.

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:55:38 AM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

80% of the public are cell phone only

You do know that Pew Research found that the "cell phone" effect doesn't significantly affect results, correct?

http://people-press.org/reports/display. php3?ReportID=276

http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/514.pd f

When it is 80%, maybe though

by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

If Clinton can win PA by 10-15pts after being outspent 3:1, with Obama as the 'presumptive nominee', media support and a string of high profile endorsements then we need to start asking serious questions about Obama's ability to win big contests.

Yes, PA's demographics favor Clinton but Obama should sweeping every state by now. Supposedly he's the near certain nominee. Obama thrives in caucuses and states with large AA populations, but Clinton wins the big contests.

Clinton/Obama has been my preference for a while now. I love Obama, but i'm worried he's not going to be able to win against McCain.

by liberalj on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:00:30 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

Geez, all last week, everyone was saying, SurveyUSA! SurveyUSA!!!

...and, yet, surprisingly, that poll is absent here... I wonder why?

OOOOOOH! I see... 'cos they reported significant movement towards Obama over the weekend... and so did a bunch of other polls not cherry-picked here...

In the end it won't matter until tonight... so, no point in fretting either way... Polling PA is like wrestling an octopus...

We'll see what happens!

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:03:31 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Look further down and READ. The poll was mentioned LAST NIGHT. This post is dedicated to NEW polls that were released this morning. READ.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:39:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 3)

Anything less than a Victory for Obama is a bad sign for his Campaign.

How can Obama take any positives out of anything but a Victory?

He outspent Hillary 4-1.
He is the front runner
he is the presumptive nominee.

Anything less than a victory should really get the supers thinking.

by CMFost23 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:03:39 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Keep spinning that one.

by rfahey22 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:06:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

Good luck with that! Too bad the PA governor said Obama wouldn't win PA. The bar is very low for him in that state. Under 20 and the delegate count doesn't move. 6 weeks of campaigning and lots of money doesn't beat 16 years of publicity and a beloved former President on your side. But it does get him close enough that a loss in PA doesn't change the math.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:13:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

If you go to a casino, already down $1,600, and win back $800, you still lost, but not too badly. If its part of a national plan to visit 50 casinos, and to end up by enough to secure the Democratic Nomination (did I mix my metaphores here?), than it helps.

If you go to a casino up $1,600, lose $800, then yes, you're still up $800, but you're likely not too happy. Especially if you need that $1,600 badly to purchase your own nomination.

Or something.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:14:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

you mean 48 casinos

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:44:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

That was the game boards decision, and all the relevant slotjocks agreed to abide it.

Real life metaphore: Everyone knows that even if you hit the ultimate jackpot, if you violate any casino rules in doing it, typically the age requirement, you are SOL. Rules is rules, especially when the stakes are high.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:02:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

I agree - how comfortable can the supers be if Hillary wins Ohio, Penn, New York, Massachusetts, Cali - and they nominate someone else? Maybe they are not really comfortable having to vote for either of these candidates, but to me Obama has to demonstrate that he can win in a Democratic stronghold or traditional battleground state and so far he has not done that aside from Illinois.

Yes, you can nominate a Democrat on the basis of wins in places like Georgia and Wisconsin over New York and Massachusetts, but I'd be pretty queasy about doing that if that were my decision to make. And for all those who say Obama will surely win all of these states - observe Massachusetts which right now puts polling at a clear Clinton victory, while McCain and Obama are in a statistical tie. Or observe Ohio where right now Clinton wins and Obama loses based on most polling data.

Obama's failure to compete in Pennsylvania is just foreshadowing of where he will fail to compete in November. It may be too late for Clinton, but a win in PA is a win and strengthens her argument that she is the best possible candidate in the fall.

If the supers are persuaded by Obama's ability to "redraw the electoral map", then this argument may not matter, but count me as one who would rather go into November competing as best we can in traditional strongholds and battlegrounds versus what I perceive to be a much more risky strategy of "changing the map".

by mikes101 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:50:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

It's not the size of the state, but the motion of the delegates. If by motion you mean the leading of.

Supers can vote any way they want to. But if you think they're concerned by this "Obama can't win big states" argument, you obviously haven't been paying attention to the constant stream of supers lining up at his side.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:04:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

There are still what, 40% of superdelegates that have not endorsed anyone?

I'm not predicting how supers are going to vote. But I do think that another Clinton win in a crucial GE state only bolsters her argument that Obama is less likely to win in the GE. Whether supers are persuaded by that argument is another matter - but I think there is something behind the fact that 40% of the remaining supers have not already endorsed Obama - he has failed to seal the deal. To me, electability is a pretty persuasive argument.

by mikes101 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:14:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

I've seen analysis that says the supers are on the fence because
a) they don't know yet
b) they like the attention
c) they want to avoid pissing a powerful voting block off (pick one)
d) they want to avoid pissing a powerful politician off (pick one)
e) they don't want to influence primaries
f) they like the attention A LOT.

I'm think a little bit of all.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

How concerned should the supers be that HRC completely mismanaged her campaign, is constantly moving the goalposts, can't come close to matching BO in fundraising, does not seem to have any noticeable effect on downticket races? I could go on......

If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:06:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

>>HRC completely mismanaged her campaign

I'm really tired of this meme. She fixed her campaign and is competing with Obama just fine now. She did not expect such a strong competitor and had some stooges in her campaign - yes - but she has adjusted. If anything I give her credit for competing so hard.

>>is constantly moving the goalposts

Seems like Obama is playing that game too - a loss of 8 would be a victory for him? Please...

>>can't come close to matching BO in fundraising

I don't think the Democrats are worried about John McCain's advantage in fundraising over either of our candidates.

>>does not seem to have any noticeable effect on downticket races

This is pure speculation. Do you want to cite some sources here?

by mikes101 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

from Surveyusa.com

With 18 hours to go before Pennsylvanians start casting their votes, Hillary Clinton is six points ahead of Barack Obama in this, SurveyUSA's fifth and final tracking poll conducted exclusively for our PA media clients KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, WHP-TV in Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Survey Analysis:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=b92f9f10-4d6b-4f93-b747-e06a37 fce20f

by CMFost23 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:06:02 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

I will say that having a bi-racial candidate will expose all the haters...

http://www.wyff4.com/news/15948849/detai l.html

Let's buckle up and Start going by June 15th

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:09:33 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (2.00 / 1)

"So merely looking at the numbers above, part of me wants to amend my 8% Clinton win prediction upward, but then again my gut is telling me to hold off. Thoughts?"

Yea, what's with all the predicting in this blog about? Bragging rights? Who cares. A poll is a prediction based on evidence gathered in the field -- which is a bit more informed than a 'gut feeling'.

by MuddyWaters on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:10:13 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

By my calculations, Clinton can win with as little as an 8-point victory to as large as a 16-point victory. I will place my bet on a 10-12 point victory. Considering Obama outspent her 4:1 in the state, not bad at all.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:36:22 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

I wonder if any of those polls managed to approximate the effect of the 300,000 new voters registered last month. That is the real wild card here as those people most likely will favor Obama given that his campaign was the most aggressive in getting new registrations. I will pray for a margin under 10 and hope that this leads to a coalescing around Obama starting tomorrow.

by wasder on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:38:46 PM EST

A new kind of politics? (none / 0)

"Antidote for 'toxic' politics, packed with its own venom
Obama deplores attacks as he uses similar tactics:"

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articl es/2008/04/22/antidote_for_toxic_politic s_packed_with_its_own_venom/

Is he still saying that?

Anyhoo, Clinton will go on whatever happens because Obama is off message and his fliers are finally getting attention.

by gotalife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:42:04 PM EST

Misreading Zogby (none / 0)

I posted yesterday about Zogby's final poll. The Sunday reading was Clinton by 15. The Monday reading was Clinton by 5.

And Suffolk is Allegheny County only.

ARG and IA cancel each other in terms of late movement. And neither are worth their salt.

Conclusion: There is no conclusion on late movement of undecideds. They could go either way or stay home.

by elrod on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:43:44 PM EST

Just last Thursday Zogby had Clinton by 1. (none / 0)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/17/1258 0/0037

Today's is his face-saving poll.

by JimR on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:48:19 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

ARG has the AA vote at 15%, is that in line with how the other polls are polling?

by mady on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:49:06 PM EST

Election Journal (none / 0)

http://www.electionjournal.org/

Aggravating, interesting stuff.

by mady on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:10:59 PM EST

The sexist male vote (none / 0)

I've heard a couple pundits lately bullish on Obama's chances, feeling like the movement in the state is really in his direction

Jerome yesterday:

It's nearly all happened in the southeast Philadelphia region. They are white and black men, predominantly 18-34, but also 35 to 45. Liberal, they are not church goers. However, they are not college graduates either. I wouldn't be surprised if they were mostly single too. Now, this group is what comprises the movement away from Clinton and toward Obama in the poll to poll shift of a 54-40 lead by Clinton to a 50-44 lead. I suspect this group is also not usually a participant in the primary system, so counting on their vote might be dubious (also note that SUSA has a gender turnout gap that shows a M-F 45-55 split instead of the norm 40-60 that has been happening).

--donna darko. I don't read or respond to comments. There's too much hate and misogyny here.

by nonwhiteperson on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:21:34 PM EST

Re: Final PA Polls...Really (none / 0)

I've heard a couple pundits lately bullish on Obama's chances, feeling like the movement in the state is really in his direction

Not to mention crossover votes from Republicans and Independents.

--donna darko. I don't read or respond to comments. There's too much hate and misogyny here.

by nonwhiteperson on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:29:43 PM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.