MyDD :: Final Zogby PA poll out

Final Zogby PA poll out

by elrod, Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:17:49 PM EST

Zogby's final 2-day average came out and it shows Clinton up 10, 51-41.

http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/zogby_c linton_obama/2008/04/21/89838.html

But keep in mind that Zogby said yesterday that his Sunday sample had Clinton up 52-39. So Monday's sample must have been 50-43, or 7 points, in order to result in a 51-41 margin. Of course, the Saturday sample had Obama up by 2, so the polls are swinging wildly. Still, 7 points for the Monday night reading seems reasonable with all the other polls. It's all GOTV for the rest.

UPDATE: Monday sample had Clinton up 5, not 7. I made a slight error. Zogby actually had Clinton up by 15 on Sunday, 53-38, not 13. That means Monday's sample must have had Clinton up 5 and not 7.

Tags: polls, Zogby (all tags)

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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (2.00 / 2)

A newsmax/zogby poll?

Enough said.

by mefck on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:25:17 PM EST

yes Zogby (none / 0)

that means she might actually be up 20....

just kidding of course.

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:31:14 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

This could be Zogby's "Obama by 13 in CA" moment. If I liked Clinton, I'd dread this result.

Bet the house on Obama by 2-5

by reggie44pride on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:31:27 PM EST

Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (2.00 / 1)

As a Clinton supporter, I am DREADING this.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:36:57 PM EST

Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

Zogby has had an anti Clinton bias this entire primary season. And historically Zogby has been anti-Clinton. I still remember how he had Lazio ahead of Clinton the day before the election in 2000.

If Zogby now admits to a 10 point growing Clinton lead, her victory should be substantial tomorrow. I would think 15 to 20 points.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:37:03 PM EST

Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

It isn't growing. Sunday she was up 15. Monday she was up 5. 2-day average is 10. But that might be good in the end for Clinton since he's often wrong...

by elrod on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:42:05 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (2.00 / 1)

Zogby has had an anti Clinton bias this entire primary season.

No, Zogby has an anti-accuracy bias.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:11:03 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (2.00 / 1)

You're all missing the point that this is a Zogby/NEWSMAX poll.

by mefck on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:40:44 PM EST

Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

And the point is???

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:42:27 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

The point is that some Obama supporters believe that all facts support their view that Hillary is bad and that, as a Hillary supporter, one should be condemned to a constant state of misery.

Good thing we don't take them too seriously. ;)

by bobbank on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:46:44 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (2.00 / 1)

Actually I think the person's point was that Zogby's a moron.

Your interpretation was certainly ... odd.

by rfahey22 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:57:22 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

My point is the Newsmaz is an unreliable right-wing site that still perpetrates the storyline that Sen. Clinton murdered Vince Foster.

by mefck on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:10:52 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

Your point about NewsMax is well taken, but NewsMax, ostensibly, had nothing to do with the polling other than they commissioned Zogby to do a poll. At least that's what it's supposed to be in theory.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:35:06 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

Fair point.

by mefck on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:46:16 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

and vice versa.....

Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!

by hootie4170 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:11:02 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (2.00 / 1)

I guess they're not tolerable, and we're not tolerable, but at some point we are all going to have to learn to tolerate each other, because if we don't, we are all going to have to tolerate McCain.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:31:17 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

I just wanted to say - about the 52-39 score - reading the release, I think Zogby was saying that was the split of White voters, not that it was the overall split for Sunday.

Please feel free to correct me if you disagree, but from the paper I saw, it was very unclear what he meant on this number.

by bobbank on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:45:17 PM EST

Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

You know something I had the same feeling. The numbers were 53-38, but it really wasn't perfectly clear to me what they were referring too.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:50:47 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

Zogby actually released his one-day samples for Saturday too, which were 47-44 for Obama. So you had 47 for Obama on Saturday and 38 on Sunday for a 42 in the two-day average. For Clinton, she had 44 on Saturday and 53 on Sunday for a 48 in the two-day average. Alas, yesterday's report showed Clinton up 48-42 over the 2-day sample.

Tonight's sample must have been 49-44 for Clinton. The average of 53 and 49 is 51, and the average of 38 and 44 is 41. He reported 51-41 tonight for the two-day sample.

It all makes sense actually. Clinton led by 5 tonight.

by elrod on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:55:02 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

No, it was the whole sample. Besides, 52-39 among whites would be fairly low.

by elrod on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:51:16 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

This was the way he put it: Pollster John Zogby: "A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a one-day anomaly--undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are breaking Clinton's way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama's 38%.

Could anyone decipher what the 53-38 is referring too?

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:56:45 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

I wondered that too, but he gave away his Saturday numbers as 47-44 for Obama so the 2-day average made sense at 48-42 yesterday.

Also, if she only led white Catholics by 53-38 then she'd be in big trouble. She leads that demographic by over 25 in most polls.

by elrod on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:58:25 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

I would think your assessment is correct.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:06:59 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

Thanks folks. Does a swing that wild reflect genuine volatility or that his sampling technique sucks?

by bobbank on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:17:48 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

With Zogby, I'd assume that every aspect of his operation sucks. I could put a bunch of numbers on the floor and have one of my pet turtles crawl over them and that would be more accurate.

by rfahey22 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:23:42 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

Actually I'm not sure how the diarist is doing his math, but if this is a 3 day rolling poll, and Obama was +2 on the first day, and I believe Clinton was +15 on the second day, in order then for Clinton to have a 10 point lead today, she would've had to be +17 on the 3rd day.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:49:13 PM EST

Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

It is a 2day rolling avg, not 3

by mecarr on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:54:41 PM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

Ok if it's a day tracking poll, then Clinton was obviously +5 on the latest day, if she was +15 on the previous day.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:01:47 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

It's a 2-day sample, not a 3-day. See my response just above. Her one-day samples were:

Saturday: 44
Sunday: 53
Monday: 49

Her 2-day sample on Sunday was 48 and today's was 51.

His one-day samples were:

Saturday: 47
Sunday: 38
Monday: 44

His 2-day sample on Sunday was 42 and is 41 today.

by elrod on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:56:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

I meant to say 2 day above, your numbers appear to be correct, but in the end, no matter how we look at it, it's still Zogby.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:04:15 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

True that. It's just another metric.

Zogby is the only tracker for PA. In OH and TX several polls tracked the last week, and all showed movement toward Clinton. Zogby's is all over the place, and the other polls show the race either steady (Rasmussen and Q-Poll showing a 1-point move in a week to Obama; PPP showing no movement) or moving to Obama (SUSA showing an 8-point move in a week, and ARG showed a 7 point move to Obama). None are showing the kind of major break among undecideds to Clinton as happened in TX and OH.

So are undecideds going to Obama? Not necessarily. They'll probably stay home or split the difference. If that happens, the final result will be Clinton 52 and Obama 47, with one to other.

by elrod on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:16:20 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

That's as good an assessment as any that are presently out there. I,myself, feel it may be a bigger win for Hillary, but mercifully it will all be over soon.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:02:26 AM EST
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Newsmax/Zogby (none / 0)

I've said this every time someone quotes zogby. They are as accurate as a ARG poll or a columbus dispatch poll. I think they contact voters during a senace.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:04:29 AM EST

Re: Newsmax/Zogby (none / 0)

How anyone buys their subscriptions for hundreds of dollars has to be one of the world's greatest mysteries.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:10:40 AM EST
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Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

Zogby gets their results by studying a team of crack-addicted monkeys flinging poo at the walls. Looks like they flung more at Hillary's side today.

by Skaje on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:31:26 AM EST

Re: Final Zogby PA poll out (none / 0)

I just find it funny how people love making fun of and ridiculing pollsters. I mean, it's not like they're evil people.

by mecarr on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:38:31 AM EST