Three polls out: Zogby, ARG, M-D.
I won't get into their specific findings, they average out as a Clinton with a 49-42 percent lead with 9 percent undecided.
Obama's big problem is that he's ending with an even lower final numbers than he had at the end of Ohio's polling, and Clinton's problem is she's not yet showing numbers consistently above 50 percent as she did in Ohio. There's one or two more days of poll results to come out, most importantly, if we get them, a final round of SUSA polling.
In previous cycles, I thought highly of Zogby's final polling, but he's really blown a number of high profile races this year, wildly over-sampling Obama supporters, to show Obama leading by 13 percent, when the final outcome showed Clinton up by 9 percent (his excuse was that Obama's AA vote didn't materialize).
But its probably more important to look at more recent polling examples, because as the primaries proceed, the pollsters learn and adjust their samples. In Ohio and Texas, Zogby did much better. He nailed Texas exactly, and at least caught that the undecideds had moved away from Obama, if not catching that they went to Clinton. Likewise, ARG, which has blown some races, did well in Texas (exact) and Ohio (off by 4%). Survey. Mason-Dixon did OK in Ohio, pegging Obama at 43, but under-polling Clinton by 6 percent, and missed Texas by just 4 percent, calling it by 1 for Obama (as did SUSA). The point of all this being, that later polling has shown an improved Zogby, and dare I say it, ARG too.
Zogby has a one-day polling sample for Sunday that would blow some eyes open, showing Clinton with a 53-38 percent lead, which translated into Clinton having a 5-day tracking lead of 48-42. Basically, "if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory."
ARG shows a chasm among polling for white and black voters, the white vote going 63-32 for Clinton, and the black vote going 86-12 for Obama. Their 11 percent Clinton lead would solidly shake this race up in its last two months, if that is the final tally (the gender turnout is most likely going to be greater than their M-W 45-55 projection which is also the case for M-D).
Obama's had a lot more time to campaign against Clinton in PA, where he started with a large deficit. And even though he's outspent Clinton by 3:1 or 4:1, and had the opportunity to target Democratic voters for 7 complete weeks, Obama doesn't look like he's on the verge of even coming close to sealing the deal through Pennsylvania. The betting, at this point, seems whether its high single-digit margin, or a 10 percent or greater blowout by Clinton.
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