Over the past five months, Rasmussen Reports polling on the Virginia Senate race has remained fairly static, with support for former Democratic Governor Mark Warner ranging from 53 percent to 57 percent and support for former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore ranging from 37 percent to 38 percent. The latest numbers from the pollster, released yesterday, are right near that range:
Democrat Mark Warner still has a comfortable lead over Republican Jim Gilmore in the race for Virginia's seat in the U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters found Warner up 55% to 39%.The gap was slightly larger last month when Warner led Gilmore 57% to 37%.
Warner dominates among unaffiliated voters. He leads Gilmore 65% to 21% among those not affiliated with either Republicans or Democrats.
Warner is viewed favorably by 65% and unfavorably by 32%. Gilmore's numbers are 51% favorable and 42% favorable.
It's hard for me to remember another Senate race that has consistently had such a large advantage for the challenging party over the incumbent party. Certainly, Bob Casey led Rick Santorum throughout the Pennsylvania Senate election last cycle, but even his double-digit margin tended to be smaller than Warner's current lead (although Casey's final 17-point margin of error was larger than Warner's lead today). In 2004, Barack Obama led Alan Keyes consistently, but Keyes was a joke and had never won statewide, as has Gilmore (who was elected as Attorney General in 1993 and Governor in 1997). So it sure looks like we're watching an unprecedented race here. And truthfully, I would be really excited to see someone with the charisma and leadership ability of Mark Warner in the United States Senate.
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