MyDD :: Another SD commits

Another SD commits

by thezzyzx, Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:27:49 PM EST

Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal is the latest to commit to Obama. He might be another Judas because, according to the Yahoo article, "Former President Clinton named Freudenthal U.S. attorney for Wyoming in 1994, and Freudenthal held that job until 2001."

That's two so far this week, not a huge movement by any means, but helpful for Obama. Perhaps the tightening PA polls are having a result.

Tags: Wyoming, Obama, Superdelegate (all tags)

Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Another SD commits (2.00 / 1)

Indeed. If Obama pulls ahead in polling in PA, and especially a trifecta of PA, IN, and NC, the Supers might call it before PA goes. But I'd say most likely, they'll let Pennsylvania vote before deciding anything. If she loses there, it's pretty much done.

This long period of time between the last set of primaries and Pennsylvania was the worst thing that could've happened to Hillary. Obama tends to drive the poll in his favor the longer he's in a state.

One things for certain; Hillary's going to be able to pretty much write her political ticket. VP, SMJ, SCOTUS, you name it. Governor of New York would be interesting, too, but I think she'd rather be a Senator.

Serious question- Is This Snark?

by ragekage on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:34:25 PM EST

Re: Another SD commits (2.00 / 1)

"One things for certain; Hillary's going to be able to pretty much write her political ticket."

That's true now. I'm not sure that still will be the case if she forces a floor fight.

I actually want her to stay in at least through PA to make sure there isn't some weird Bradley effect happening, but (assuming she loses) after NC, she'd lose bargaining power with every day that passes.

Beat McCain!

by thezzyzx on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:39:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another SD commits (2.00 / 0)

The supers aren't going to call it before Pennsylvania, nor should they.

Besides, how stupid would it look to have the party say "We have a nominee!!!!" only to have Hillary Clinton win Pennsylvania by 20+ points the next day (and she would, since the only people voting would be people who wanted to "send a message")?

by Mostly on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another SD commits (none / 0)

This is very true.

Serious question- Is This Snark?

by ragekage on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:30:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another SD commits (none / 0)

My son says that Obama is trending up in PA. If that continues he will win PA. The Clintons are going to have to spend all their money in PA. They will have to keep putting off paying their bills. If I were the Clintons I wouldquit now, and take all the money I have after paying down all the debts and put it in the bank for my next campaign.

by Spanky on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:40:20 PM EST

Re: Another SD commits (none / 0)

There is NO. WAY. Obama wins in Pennsylvania. It's a state I know very, very well.

by Mostly on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another SD commits (none / 0)

He wins, even if he loses. B/C Hillary will not be able to catch up significantly in pledged delegates.

See this great breakdown:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/2/12211 0/7678#12

Best-case scenario for Hillary is 17-20 pledged delegate advantage, and that's if she really smacks him, by 15-20% of the vote. Not likely to happen.

Even if she did - from a percentage point of view, she will be FARTHER BEHIND in the delegate race after PA then she is before it! That's how far back she is. She cannot have any reasonable shot of catching up.

by Cycloptichorn on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:51:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another SD commits (none / 0)

Cool beans. Another welcome nail in the coffin, even.

by jwolf on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:40:54 PM EST

pick your words carefully (2.00 / 0)

Much of the anger directed at Obama seems to be driven by the perception that HRC and her supporters have been treated disrespectfully.

So, try not to use language from which they can draw offense.

The "nail in the coffin" words might offend. She's not dying. And "nail in the coffin" makes it sound inevitable. This implication is bound to offend some HRC supporters.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:16:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another SD commits (none / 0)

Seems like there is one SD a day.

McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future

by KathyM on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:44:41 PM EST

Interesting (none / 0)

I wonder if it will have a morale effect on either side if Obama eventually overtakes Clinton in superdelegates.

That has been the one factor that she's been ahead on the entire race.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:53:24 PM EST

Re: Interesting (2.00 / 1)

It's not a morale factor at that point, it's practically dispositive. As it stands now, even among the most incredibly optimistic Hillary-supporter estimates with unprecedented assumptions like Clinton winning Montana and South Dakota, Obama would need at WORST 100 supers of the 250 outstanding to translate his pledged delegate lead into a clinched victory.

If he picked up the 30ish supers he needed to take the lead, the percentage of remaining supers needed would be so small, it's hard to imagine them not lining up at that point, because the chance of a Clinton clinch would be virtually nil and the other option is a multi-ballot convention.

by Rorgg on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:11:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well yes. (none / 0)

I understand that it would be more damaging than that... I like to understate things. A little.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:56:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another SD commits (none / 0)

Judas

My dream is Hillary will sponser a joint resolution to authorize the use of the United States Armed Forces against Trinity Church

by denounceandreject on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:08:52 PM EST

Re: Another SD commits (2.00 / 0)

Do not tease the Clinton supporters. It will provoke them to drag their feet on supporting Obama, if HRC is not the nominee.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.