MyDD :: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum?

Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum?

by elrod, Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 11:52:27 PM EST

A Zogby PA poll just out shows Hillary up on Obama 46-43 after leading him 47-42 yesterday. Zogby says Obama actually polled at 46-44 over Clinton today, taking a lead in one day's polling. He had pulled in only 40% yesterday.

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Newsm ax_Zogby_Pa_race/2008/04/19/89395.html

Any tracking poll should be taken with a grain of salt - especially a Zogby poll. But his analysis seems to show that the debate fallout has subsided in PA and voters might have responded well to his Philadelphia rally and his whistle-stop tour today. It's retail politics time. The final stretch ad shootout, where each candidate accuses the other of treachery and being nattering nabobs of negativism will play a role. But retail politicking will go a long way in swaying undecided voters.

Tags: Obama, Zogby (all tags)

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Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 3)

Don't worry, you know the headline we'll get on Tuesday:

"ZOGBY: OBAMA WILL WIN PA"
I'd take Zogby with more seriousness if they haven't blown every poll they've had this election season, and if one of thier top pollsters and Zogby's brother was not a declared superdelegate for Obama.

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 11:54:33 PM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 3)

You make an excellent point. I think right now, we can point to all the polls we want to... we'll just have to wait until Tuesday night.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 11:55:19 PM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

Yeah but Zogby has an especially horrendous record. I'm actually glad that Zogby's sticking to his MO, which is:

1) Show a close race leading up to election.

Show Obama tied or ahead on day of election.
Clinton wins handily.

Bring it on, Zogby!

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:31:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 2)

Well, I'd like to believe it, but Zogby is a moron...

What's interesting is that today, First Read was saying that during the daily news conference, the Clinton spokespeople kept talking about "just wanting to get a win" and predicting a victory of about 3-4 points. Now, I don't buy that for a minute. Obama's leaked internals from months ago showed a 5-point loss, so I find it hard to believe that Clinton's polling shows him doing better than his optimal scenario (which was before Wright, etc.). It's a clear attempt to lower expectations. My gues is Clinton by 10-12.

by rfahey22 on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 11:56:49 PM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

Tweety said on MSNBC that the Clinton campaign's internals have them +17 going into the primary. I suspect it will stay around that, maybe sink a little bit, but yea, they might be trying to play down expectations to make that victory look even better.

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 11:58:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

That's unlikely. Even SUSA hasn't shown that high of a lead. Clinton could win by 12, but I doubt much more.

by elrod on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:01:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

SUSA's at 14 right now, and was at 18 a week ago. Internals are typically (and I say that with caution) far more accurate than polling companies, but we'll see either way. I don't think it will be a single digits victory, but with these polls all over the place, who knows.

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:15:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

Thing is, late deciders tend to:

a) slightly favor "incumbents". In this case, that would be Hillary Clinton.

b) be older women.

Which probably explains why the campaign's internals are ridiculously high - a good portion of the people that are DTS in regular polls would probably end up supporting HRC.

by Mostly on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:57:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

Actually, I have a hard time believing that in light of today's comments. I mean, one can only push plausibility so far. I would expect them to knock 5-7 points off of their real expectations, but 12? Maybe I'm wrong.

by rfahey22 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:07:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

Those weren't leaked internals from months ago. Those were just predictions.

I have no idea where this race is right now. But I do believe there are a lot of undecideds and that closing retail politics will settle this. Obama has done poorly with last minute deciders so far. We'll see what happens in PA.

by elrod on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:00:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Done poorly with late deciders? (2.00 / 0)

In TX and OH I'll grant you, but most [place like Conn, IA, Wis the opposite is true.

by IowaMike on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:04:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Done poorly with late deciders? (none / 0)

Add NJ, MA, CA, RI, FL, TN, AR, to TX & OH.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:33:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Done poorly with late deciders? (none / 0)

Not true in CA. Her margin was almost entirely early voters, actually. In in my own state of TN he actually performed better than the polls, though there weren't many polls in the last week. Also, a tornado in the Memphis area drove down turnout.

by elrod on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:02:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Done poorly with late deciders? (none / 0)

Actually true in California. Per CNN exit poll:

Deciding on day of election:
Clinton 51, Obama 43

In Tennessee the same pattern holds:
Clinton 49, Obama 44

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:16:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Perhaps the train stop campaigning (2.00 / 1)

is helping. I think it is a BRILLIANT idea by the Obama campaign.

by puma on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:01:29 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 8)

Great news! And in fact, I've managed to get an EXCLUSIVE photo of Zogby's polling tools!

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:01:31 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 4)

I think you left out the ouija board.

by rfahey22 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:05:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 2)

That would be silly.

He's saving that for the general election.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 0)

As soon as ARG gives it back.

by Mostly on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:58:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

LOL the fight between Zogby and ARG. They both go all the way out to project what they hope their candidate will get.

by Sandeep on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:18:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 2)

lol that was genius

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:16:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

Love the photo!!!!!!!!

by Politicalslave on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:01:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

I Love the photo

by Politicalslave on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:03:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby (2.00 / 1)

Is a piece of crap poll. Seriously If I see anyone try to take any meaning out of something that has the quality of ARG or the Columbus Dispatch Again I am going to fill there thread with comments exactly like this.

The real polls like SUSA, Rasmussen, Q-Pac, PPP, will have polls out on Monday.

Patience!

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:02:02 AM EST

Re: Zogby (none / 0)

They were the only ones that had Hillary up slightly the day before in TX.

by IowaMike on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:06:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I believe (2.00 / 0)

PPP did in their final poll of TX.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/ 2008/03/ppp-best-combined-democratic-num bers-in.html

They were the closest among all pollsters even the vaulted SUSA in their OH and TX predictions.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:23:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 2)

As always, the trick will be in predicting turnout.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:05:12 AM EST

I hate Zogby (2.00 / 1)

because he calls his mother and that is the extent of his polling. He is working for Newsmax! aren't we better than to link to Newsmax!

NEWSMAX!!!

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:08:21 AM EST

Re: I hate Zogby (none / 0)

Newsmax -- screw that. Scaife, well, we can overlook him.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:12:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 2)

" If those white/Catholics do vote, then they will probably vote for Clinton and she can conceivably meet the 10-point victory threshold that meets pundits' expectations. It looked like she was moving some of these voters after the debate, but today is a different story. Too soon to tell."

- That phrase tells you all you need to know about Zogby.

How the hell does he know who they are going to probably " vote for.

" she can conceivably meet the 10-point victory threshold that meets pundits' expectations."

- Zogby is an armchair pundit , no forget that he is a charlartan.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:11:25 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

It just could be a voting block that's lost to McCain at this point. The problem is that Clinton has gone too negative again, and that turns some voters off.

by mikelow1885 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:38:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

Zogby had both tie in Ohio remember??

by darlene25 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:15:07 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 0)

and he had Hillary up slightly in TX.

by IowaMike on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:08:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So did PPP (none / 0)

nt.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:24:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

I doubt it will be that close, but Rasmussen also has it Clinton +3 now.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:16:48 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

And PPD, too.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democrati c_primary-240.html

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:17:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

In other news, Obama wins California.

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:16:58 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

Since when PPP is a real poll?

by darlene25 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:17:02 AM EST

They've nailed (2.00 / 1)

everything since Feb. 5th and where they do poll they are among the more accurate pollsters.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:27:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

Lately PPP's been pretty accurate, though historically they aren't so great. I think I heard that they changed their formula for likely voters around the time they became more accurate.

by rfahey22 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:33:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah (none / 0)

The switched from a 2004 primary model to basing it on turnout in 2008. I predict their final PA poll will be with 3% of the final result

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:26:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

F&M and Q-Poll are best for PA (2.00 / 2)

And both had Hillary up 6 early in the week. Zogby is only interesting in that it's a tracker and people are jumping all over trackers to see debate fallout. This is the first tracker since the debate (nationally or PA) to show movement back to Obama. It might mean that voters have already put the debate out of mind - at least in PA.

by elrod on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:24:11 AM EST

Re: F&M and Q-Poll are best for PA (2.00 / 1)

I do think that Obama has probably been somewhat effective in changing the discussion as to the quality of the debate. There may have been a reflex action about who won the debate, followed by a second-guess phenomenon.

by rfahey22 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:30:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: F&amp;M and Q-Poll are best for PA (none / 0)

He did what Hillary did.

Remember when she complained that the media was always asking her questions first, that they were being unfair. It changed the discussion.

He did the same thing.

by IowaMike on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:10:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: F&amp;amp;M and Q-Poll are best for PA (none / 0)

Yeah. People seem to be receptive to that.

by rfahey22 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:49:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TX,OH & Now PA - Same Outcome ! (none / 0)

PA will have the same outcome as TX,OH.

Polls will show it tight but on election day, blue collar white voters will break for Clinton in Huge numbers.

This will again happen in IN,WV,KY.

And yes, this will also happen again in many key battlground states when McCain beats Obama in November.

This trend will keep happening if Obama is the nominee. Particularly in states with large working class white voters. Polls will show McCain & Obama within 5-8 points in states like NJ,PA,OH,MO,NM,CO. But come election day, McCain will sweep All these states by double digits.

GET USE TO THIS TREND !

BTW, I would be not be surprised at all if Clinton wins PA by double digits on Tuesday.

by libdemusa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:30:00 AM EST

Re: TX,OH & Now PA - Same Outcome ! (2.00 / 0)

Clinton overperformed the poll average in OH by 3 points: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primar y-263.html

and by about 1.5 in Texas
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_prima ry-312.html

In other words, the final polls were pretty close to the actual results.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:47:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TX,OH &amp; Now PA - Same Outcome ! (2.00 / 0)

And Zogby actually came the closest to the result in TX.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:50:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And PPP (2.00 / 0)

was close behind with 50-44 (they underestimated Sen Obama too much)

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:29:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TX,OH & Now PA - Same Outcome ! (none / 0)

Blue collar whites voted for Bush over Kerry by 23 points. Blue collar whites (especially men) are not Democrats, unless they are union.

McCain wins NJ by double digits? You're on crack.

by elrod on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:14:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TX,OH &amp; Now PA - Same Outcome ! (2.00 / 0)

Blue collar white's generally aren't late deciders - those are generally older women of all income brackets.

Who tend to break for Hillary Clinton anyway.

by Mostly on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:01:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Blue Collar (none / 0)

Blue collar white women are core Hillary votes. Blue collar white men are Republicans (unless union).

by elrod on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:03:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Just like in Wisconsin and Iowa!!!! (none / 0)

by darryl darryl darryl on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 04:59:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

I wouldn't be surprised either if she wins by 18

by darlene25 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:38:21 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, and if she doesn't win by 18-20, what happened to her?

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:44:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

Um nothing "happened to her" besides her not living up to Obama supporter's ridiculous expectations.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:36:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (2.00 / 1)

She is not going to win by 18 , if she wins by 10 , you should be grateful to the almighty lol

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:45:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

No way is the race this close. I think Clinton will win it by 10% or so, give or take a couple percentage points. The idea that she is up by 17%, which Chris Matthews says the Clinton internals are saying, is a bit far-fetched I think.

by mecarr on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:01:04 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

Not necessarily. The last two polls for the PA Senate race had Casey +12 and Casey + 8. It was Casey + 18. PA undecideds tend to break in a tidal wave fashion.

2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.

by BPK80 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:25:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

If internal polling is as bad for Obama as he expects, then why is he still there? Conventional wisdom is to move on to the next state...

I don't know, really... It's all so damn maddening...

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:23:42 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (1.50 / 2)

It is not "movement" or "momentum" when a poll moves from 47-42 to 46-43.

Ever hear of margin of error?

by reggie44pride on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 03:22:39 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama Regains Momentum? (none / 0)

Is this the same Zogby that predicted Obama winning California by a huge margin? Get real, Zogby has no credibility! may be Sen Obama should stop campaigning because Zogby says he is winning!
LMAO