Zogby PA: Obama slips

by mikelow1885, Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:20:58 AM EST

The lastest from the pollster we love to hate:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?I D=1484

Clinton 47%
Obama 42%

Obama only got 40% on today's half of the poll.  Perhaps this is the turnaround for Clinton; we shall see.  She's way ahead among Catholics, and I really think the debate is sinking Obama.  Don't be fooled by crowd sizes at campaign stops: they're overrated.

I think Hillary needs a 10%+ win; she'll need as much of that 8% undecided as possible to get it.  And I think she will.




Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania, Zogby (all tags)

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10% win won't (none / 0)

gain her many delegates at all.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:24:04 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

Obama's numbers go down on Fridays and Saturdays, never really could tell why - I guess it us the youth vote.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:25:44 AM EST

I approve of you sig, mind if I use it too? (none / 0)

nt.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:28:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I approve of you sig, mind if I use it too? (none / 0)

Go Right Ahead


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:29:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

Hillary wins by better than 10% and will get great press because of it and a continued jump in the polls.  And BO supporters will not only tell everyone how great it is he only lost by 10% and then go on and on and on about the delegates.

And BO supporters will demand that HRC pull out since she only won by 10%.  Funny when BO ran for the IL senate didnt he get everyone else thrown off the ticket so as he would not have to run against anyone.  Sound similar.  He wants HRC to quit.

Go hillary.

david


by giusd on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:26:36 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

that's smack down, he wants to bully her out, fake her in to giving up. Jon Stewart had a funny joke, Obama has a clear shot to the nomination .. if Hillary gives up. She won't, she's no quitter.  


Hillary - alternative energy
by anna shane on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:30:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

I dislike them both, but you tell it like it is.  The story line will be exactly that.

Further, Hillary will spin for two weeks how she was outspent and yet still won.  Obamacrats will spin us dizzy about delegates.


by reggie44pride on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 01:40:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This was diaried on yesterday (none / 0)

and everyone talked about how worthless Zogby was, it was compared to ARG, the Comlumbus dispath (which requires people to mail in the survey).

Zogby is really inaccurate, there probably is movement towards Clinton due to the debate and surveys like PPP, SUSA, Q-Pac, Rasmussen, will pick it up on Monday.

Patience.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:27:42 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

Wasn't it 47-43 yesterday? That's a one-point drop. Even if he got 40 in a one-day sample, that's not much really, especially as it tends to go to "undecided" and not to Clinton.


by elrod on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:28:15 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (2.00 / 0)

we'll see, but the longer it goes on the better she does. She wears well. He gets a little frayed at the edges.  I sure hope she wins, I want us out of Iraq, and Bush's no-bid contracts and those mercenary armies with us.  She has the comprehensive plan and the workaholics  to oversee that it's done right.  She's also again tied in the national polls, so things may be finally going Hillary's way. With what she's sustained, it's magic.    


Hillary - alternative energy
by anna shane on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:28:19 AM EST

she is not tied in the National polls, (none / 0)

she is losing


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:35:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

47, 44? (none / 0)

seems tied to me?  


Hillary - alternative energy
by anna shane on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:46:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

for one its (none / 0)

not yet a trend.

47-44 is not tied either. If you want to talk margin of error then please mention that.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:47:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

well? (none / 0)

but she's ahead?  


Hillary - alternative energy
by anna shane on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 09:07:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

National Polls Mean Nothing In April (none / 0)

In April, 1992, Bill Clinton was in third place (by quite a few points), behind both Bush, Sr. and Perot.

It's freakin' April...about four months until the convention; almost seven months until the GE.

And, while we're at it...where was Barack Obama in the polls four months ago?

That's the thing about political campaigns...

So, all this back and forth about polls--any polls about anything that's happening more than a few weeks out at least--is totally wasted think IMHO.


by bobswern on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 01:48:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

She led most PA polls by over 20 a month ago. She now leads most PA polls by 3-8. That's not "wearing well." That's turning voters off.

She usually picks up undecideds in the end so the top Obama number may be the key. We have to watch for that number on Monday.


by elrod on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 12:42:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Reality break (none / 0)

"She led most PA polls by over 20 a month ago"

bullshit

Since Super Tuesday, she's led in one poll by > 20.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democrati c_primary-240.html


by reggie44pride on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 01:42:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reality break (none / 0)

OK, 19 points in SUSA. She led PPP by 26.  She led Rasmussen by 15, now 3.


by elrod on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 02:39:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reality break (none / 0)

She was never up "20" in "most" polls after Super Tuesday, as you suggest.  Just more spin.

You have to really cherry pick polls to say she was ever up 20.  

"OK, 19 points in SUSA."

And still 14 points in SUSA.  So your point?


by reggie44pride on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 03:23:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

I think that, in the future, we should just pretend that Zogby doesn't exist. The only two polls that I really trust are Rasmussen and SUSA.


Nothing like a one liner from which someone can judge your entire character.
by motbob on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 01:40:13 AM EST

But Zogby isn't always wrong (none / 0)

In the MO primary, your trusted SUSA was completely wrong while Zogby and ARG somehow lucked out with the right numbers


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 09:39:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

She probably wins by between 11-13 pts...

He gets most of the lost delegates back in NC?

Indiana is the real interesting state?

No more debates, just plenty of hunting and pecking into peoples pasts.....

Advantage is to Hillary right now there, Hannity and the right wing are bound and determined to get rid of Obama, so they can lure Hillary into the briar patch in the fall....


On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....
by WashStateBlue on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 02:03:28 AM EST

She'll "win" by more than that (none / 0)

..thanks to no paper trail.

Pay attention to those exit polls.


by rhetoricus on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 10:55:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby? (none / 0)

Are we really trusting this pollster? I would rather wait for SUSA to know if there has been any change in the dynamics.


by ann0nymous on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 03:57:04 AM EST

Re: A Review of the Pennsylvania Primary (none / 0)

Jay Cost at realclearpolitics.com gave us some hints a few weeks back on what to expect Tuesday...If you like wonky stuff like I do...

A Review of the Pennsylvania Primary:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horsera ceblog/2008/03/a_review_of_the_pennsylva nia_p.html


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman
by Tennessean on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 07:00:52 AM EST

she will win 20+, don't trust Zogby (none / 0)

Zogby is BS-master and pro-Obama a big way. If Zogby said she is +5, it means she is 20+


Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 08:53:09 AM EST

Pay not attention to the man behind the curtain (none / 0)

Don't be fooled by crowd sizes at campaign stops: they're overrated.

Who ya gonna believe. Me or your lyin' eyes.

:-)


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 09:01:50 AM EST

Re: Pay not attention (none / 0)

In OH Obama was drawing 10-20K at all stops.  He went on to lose nearly every county.

Obama and Clinton supporters are completely different.  Clinton's are more traditional, skew older.  Obama's are younger, more energetic, more likely to attend rallies.

That said, 35K is VERY impressive.  I think he similarly drew 30K in SC.


by mjc888 on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 09:10:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pay not attention (none / 0)

"He went on to lose every county"

Which state are we talking about?


by rhetoricus on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 10:54:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't worry (none / 0)

Hillary's buddy just guaranteed no paper trail. You'll see a massive difference between the exit polls and "actual vote count," just like in New Hampshire. If the Clinton people don't steal it, the GOP will do it for her, because they'd rather face her in the fall.

PS, want to bet money about those exit polls?


by rhetoricus on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 10:53:06 AM EST

Re: Zogby PA: Obama slips (none / 0)

The Zogby polls have historically been anti Hillary, since the time that Zogby had Lazio ahead of Hillary the day before the election in 2000. All other polls were showing a significant Hillary win at the time.

In this primary season Zogby has shown an exceptional bias when it comes to Hillary. His California poll, predicting a double digit win for Obama, was pure crap  as was Massachusetts, and New Jersey and others.

So if Zogby is now actually showing a 5 point Hillary lead in Pa., you can be certain Hillary must be up 10-15 points at this time.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 11:38:01 AM EST


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