There are two new polls out of Pennsylvania that were in the field yesterday, the first full day after the debate. And as you might expect, we're getting some mixed messages.
Zogby, which began its Pennsylvania daily tracking poll yesterday, showed Clinton gaining a net 3 points when the 17th, the day after the debate, was added to its 2-day rolling average.
| Candidate | April 16-17 | April 15-16 |
| Clinton | 47 | 45 |
| Obama | 43 | 44 |
John Zogby doesn't attribute the movement to a post-debate bounce for Clinton though, but does see a disturbing trend for Obama in the fall if he is the nominee.
"No ground really gained or lost by either candidate after Wednesday's debate. The one day sample had Clinton leading by 4 points. She is solid with Catholics, whites, Hispanics, and older voters. Obama holds his strong support among African Americans, the young , and Very Liberals. What is very significant here is that when we ask these likely primary voters who they would vote for today in the general election, Clinton scores 75% to 9% against McCain, while Obama leads McCain 72% to 14%. The difference? Only 11% of Catholic Democrats and 12% of white Democrats choose McCain in the match against Clinton, while 22% of Catholic Democrats and 18% of white Democrats choose McCain against Obama."
Rasmussen Reports, on the other hand, released a poll taken entirely over the course of yesterday and finds a 6-point turnaround in Obama's direction in the aftermath of the debate.
| Candidate | April 17 | April 14 |
| Clinton | 47 | 50 |
| Obama | 44 | 41 |
Rasmussen doesn't address whether the movement was in any impacted by the debate but this bit of analysis leads me to believe that there may be a slight inflation of Obama's numbers here and that in PA as we've seen elsewhere, we'll probably see undecideds and soft Obama supporters come home to Clinton in the end.
Obama's support appears to be a bit softer than Clinton's at this point in time. Six percent (6%) of Obama voters say there's a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Only 2% of Clinton supporters say the same.Overall, with less than a week to go, 9% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided, 3% say there's a good chance they will change their mind, and another 12% might change their mind. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Clinton leads 53% to 47%.
Zogby has definitely had some questionable results this cycle but I've found the statewide tracking polls to be interesting to the extent that they measure small shifts in real time, but it's only really helpful (if at all) once you have 3 to 4 days of results to go by.
Update [2008-4-18 13:46:14 by Todd Beeton]:And speaking of post-debate polls:
These results are based on interviewing conducted April 15-17, with Thursday night's interviewing the first conducted following the April 16 debate in Philadelphia. [...]In Thursday night's interviewing, Clinton received a greater share of national Democratic support than Obama, the first time she has done so in an individual night's interviewing since April 3. That stronger showing for Clinton helped to snap Obama's streak of statistically significant leads in the three-day rolling averages Gallup reports each day. Until today, he had led Clinton by a statistically significant margin in each of the prior 11 Gallup releases.
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