MyDD :: McCain Democrats just Waiting

McCain Democrats just Waiting

by latinfighter, Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:00:02 PM EST

As discussed on ABCnews...

McCain democrats are starting to show increasing strenght particularly in the last 30 days. Polls by various organizations led by Gallup, Pew,CNN & WSJ have detected them in all regions of the country.

The big question is.....

When will McCain democrats officially come out in big numbers? When will they start coming out?

Pew Research, Gallup, & WSJ have all done surveys in the last 30 days about these Democrats who have signified their intention to vote for Sen. John McCain in the fall.

The numbers run from these renegades run a shocking 30% to as high as 40% of registered democrats.

Stephenapolous & Rothenberg expect these McCain democrats to start being significantly noticed the minute Sen. Barack Obama knocks off Hillary Clinton. Or when Clinton officially withdraws her candidacy.

Lionel Simmons of Air America together with Stuart Rothenberg both predicted that this may possibly be the largest crossover of voters from one party to another since Ronald Reagan in '80 & '84.

Although white ex-Reagan democrats are leading the organizations of these independent groups in OH,MO,MI,FL,& NJ- Latinos have also started launching McCain democrats in NV,CA,FL,NY,NJ,NM.

Personally, I believe that once Obama either secures the nomination by knocking off Clinton in any of the upcoming states or if Clinton decides to drop-out- We will All Witness a very strong public take-off of these groups.

Every pollster has pretty much agreed that if at least 15% of democrats or Republicans swing to the other side in November, that would be more than enough to end this race in November.

Right now, every single major pollster is detecting between 30% to 40% levels.

As a Hispanic, I predict Obama will carry the Hispanic vote by 55% to 45%. ( I'll go with Latino pollster in CA & NV who have been predicting this for months).

Yes,he will carry the democratic vote. But it will be the worse performance of any democrat since reliable Latino presidential polls were first taken in 1988.

In turn, McCain would exceed by a large margin George W. Bush's numbers among Republicans.

As Jose Jimenez, a tri-state Hispanic Nueva Vision pollster in NY,NJ,CT has pointed out. McCain's strenght with democratic Latinos & democratic blue collar whites are two major reasons why polls show McCain very possibly beating Obama in New York & New Jersey.

Jimenez said, " if Sen. Obama does not carry at least 70% of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Cubans, & South american groups in New York & New Jersey, there is no way he can carry these two states. He is weak among white jerseyans & white new yorkers while very strong among african-americans. But without solid 75%+ support from hispanics, McCain will beat him soundly in NY & NJ. McCain has a 77% favorable rating among Hispanics in NY & NJ. The concern for Obama is Puerto Ricans & Dominicans are much more democratic than Mexicans in the West Coast. If he is having a hard time attracting Hispanics in the east coast, he will sure have big problems in more swing hispanics in places like CA,NV,MO & MI. "

Tags: McCain Democrats, Waiting to Come out (all tags)

Permalink :: 22 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (2.00 / 1)

I live in New York and I assure you McCain will not beat Obama here nor will he beat Clinton, not even among white voters.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:02:13 PM EST

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (none / 0)

Yes, every single person in MYDD & Kos can assure & guarantee that Obama will kick McCain's ass.

Unfortunately, you are one vote. The entire net community does Not Represent nor mirror reality.

Two polls from two difference orgs have shown McCain beatin Obama is NY.

What you are hoping is some "Kumbaya" moment. When Democrats will hold hands & unite.

Sorry, that will be much easier said than done.

Kerry, Gore, Clinton NEVER had this unification issue.

Obama has VERY REAL issues with this.

Jesse Jackson may have succeeded in the primary, but this will be an UGLY,SLAP in November.

My memories of Reagan will surely comeback on November 4.

by latinfighter on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (none / 0)

Are you in New York? Do you talk to New Yorkers?

No?

I am

McCain will not beat Obama in New York...as much as you want him to and will probably work to see he does.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 07:04:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (none / 0)

Then why don't you help him heal the rift, as opposed to complaining? Or maybe you want a McCain presidency?

by NewOaklandDem on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 07:17:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (none / 0)

wait, are you trying to equate Obama with Jesse Jackson and hinting you're going to vote republican in November? Not being snarky, but your comment was a bit vague

by Djo on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 07:28:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (none / 0)

I live in NJ.

I'll go with what many Union leaders are saying privately.

Obama will carry Essex & Hudson County.

But he will lose All the other dozen counties in NJ.

McCain will beat Obama very comfortably in NJ.

The only NJ people saying Obama can beat McCain are liberal white activists. Even blacks know how hard its going to be in NJ.

Newark, Jersey City, & Trenton cannot carry the entire state.

by libdemusa on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:13:28 PM EST

Nope. (none / 0)

We've seen this argument before, only with white voters; conventional wisdom had it that whites wouldn't go for a black candidate. Then Iowa happened, and voila, everything changed.

As to New York, no non-incumbent republican has won a statewide election here since 1994. Our state hasn't gone red in a Presidential election since 1984. It's not going red this year.

Also, please note that while both of our candidates are going through a trough right now, he still performs better than she does.

"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis

by MBNYC on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:18:40 PM EST

Re: Nope. (none / 0)

MBNYC,

Stop repeating what liberals like to erroneously always cite.

Yes, white voters among democrats.

You are talking about liberal white democrats who have no problem voting for Obama.

The rest of us are talking about the majority of white people. ( who are to the right of liberals)

White liberals are no more than 25% of all white voters. They standout in democratic primaries. But come GE, its a whole different picture.

Obama is Only getting 30%-35 of white democrats in the primary. Wait until the entire white population gets to vote in the GE.

See, this liberal white joining up with Blacks is a WINNING FORMULA in dem primaries. Right there, that's over 50% of all democratic voters in many states.

But come GE, that's a DISASTER! ( that coalition drops to 30% of All voters. It would not even be close. It would be a big defeat)

Ask Dukakis & Mondale- they'll tell you!

It would be an electoral lanslide.

by libdemusa on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:30:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope. (2.00 / 0)

"liberals like you"? From someone names 'LibdemUSA'? Who apparently doesn't believe in paragraphs. Yeah, gotta love where this site is headed.

by Whash on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:36:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope. (2.00 / 1)

My name has nothing to do with Obama's problems.

Don't take things personally. It won't help Obama.

He's has very real issues with a Large segment of Democrats.

I am a white male "bitter" union democrat.

There are millions of us "bitter" white working class democrats who will send Barack a Very Strong, Loud & Powerful Message on the ballot box in November.

We love america. We are hardworking proud democrats.

And yes, we are " bitter" that someone who is NOT qualified for President would be in this position because he happens to be making some racial history.

There are tons of more qualified Democrats & Republicans who could be President today.

Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Edwards, Clinton, are ALL much more qualified than Barack.

And yes, millions of democrats agree with that statement. Only liberals refuse to even acknowledge it.

by libdemusa on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:44:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope. (2.00 / 1)

I don't buy the working class act - sorry. I'm a union organizer and we're terrified of a McCain presidency - the Supreme Court rules on other things besides abortion you know.

I mean, if you won't vote your interests I can't make you, but you're screwing yourself. I'm sure you know that.

by Mostly on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope. (2.00 / 1)

So you are not bitter that republicans have ruined the economy for working class whites? You are not bitter that McCain offers no alternative to changing the course on the economy? You are not bitter McCain supports a war that has sucked many billions of dollars that could be used to help retrain many out of work workers or give better education to your kids or tax breaks for middle class Americans?

by Pravin on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:56:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope. (2.00 / 0)

And Hillary doesn't have problems with a large portion of the democractic base? And McCain doesn't have problems with the republican base?

by Djo on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 07:30:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Heh. (2.00 / 2)

Stop repeating what liberals like to erroneously always cite.

What, empirical evidence that contradicts your faith-based assertions?

I'll say this again: Obama performs better in general-election matchups against McCain than Clinton. That is just an incontrovertible fact based on national and state polling both.

"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis

by MBNYC on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:53:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (2.00 / 0)

Every pollster has pretty much agreed that if at least 15% of democrats or Republicans swing to the other side in November, that would be more than enough to end this race in November.

I hate to inject any sort of reality into your posts, but 15%+ of each party's voters defect every single election. So yeah... that'll be enough to "end this race in November." (when else is it gonna end?)

by Whash on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:27:55 PM EST

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (none / 0)

Wash,

First of all, they are saying 30% to 40%. Not 15%
( they were saying that 15% was more than enough to tilt the race)

See below. 11% of Democrats voted for Bush in 2004 & Bush won decisively.

Today, Obama will be Very Lucky to even come close to 15%. and he would still lose at 15%!

Thats realiy. Not some BS wishful thinking.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail /2008/03/27/mccain_democrats_putting_a_s ur.html

by libdemusa on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:38:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (2.00 / 2)

Okay, then I guess we're all screwed. Oh well.

by Mostly on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:50:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (2.00 / 1)

Not Screwed - DOOMED! DOOMED I say! At least he's not telliong us that we must nominate Clinton.

by NewOaklandDem on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:56:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (none / 0)

I quoted the diarist saying 15%.

And I haven't seen a single poll that would lead me to believe that Obama would lose 50% of Democrats, that's a ridiculous number, and writing a diary on it won't change that fact

And by the way, you really should try reading what you link to, maybe this link:http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/2008/03/wil l-democrats-really-defect-if-their.html , which points out correctly that in the midst of the 2000 race well over half of McCain's GOP supporters said they wouldn't vote for Bush if he won the nomination.

Well guess what? They did. And all those Hillary supporters who when asked now, several month from the nomination and right in the heat of a bitter nomination fight who say they'll vote against Obama in the Fall if he's the nominee, won't. Flat out, they won't, and no amount of concern trolling will change that.

This sort of poll question has a long history, and it's not a good measure of what happens in the fall, only of how people are feeling right now at the height of the primary. You and the diarist (assuming you're different people) are arguing from a place that is totally ignorant of history.

by Whash on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:56:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We are doomed! (none / 0)

McCain is winning right now. Against both candidates! And instead of doing something about it we sit around and whine about who does this or that.

I no longer have a dog in the hunt. You could call me an any democrat guy now.

A McCain presidency would be bad for most people as it would be a continuation of the past 7 years and 81% of people don't like the trendline.

But instead lets knife fight some more. You stab a guy and a guy stabs you.

What fun.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 08:37:07 PM EST

Idiotic analysis (2.00 / 0)

Any polling right now in the thick of a nasty primary is going to show lots of "My way or the highway" votes. In 2000, as much as 50% of McCain and Bush voters told pollsters that they would vote for Gore over the other candidate if their guy lost. But once McCain dropped out the party consolidated. The civil war miraculously disappeared.

In 2004 I didn't know a single person who liked John Kerry in the primary. I voted for Edwards in the Illinois primary, long after he had dropped out. I couldn't stand John Kerry. But I voted for him in November.

The notion that all these Latinos are going to forget the anti-Hispanic tide of the modern GOP is ridiculous. McCain may be more right on immigration than his party, but he isn't exactly loved by Latinos.

As for working class whites, Kerry lost them by 23 points. Yet he only lost the general election by 3 points. I doubt Obama does any worse among working class whites than Kerry. But I bet Obama does a lot better among Independents who have abandoned the GOP since 2004. As for NJ and NY working class whites are a dwindling percentage of the population.

I despise Hillary Clinton, frankly. I think she is a lying, conniving, passive-aggressive, cynical politician who would sell everyone out for her own personal gain. But you know what? I'd still vote for her over McCain. Why? I'm a Democrat and I know the stakes. McCain means permanent occupation of Iraq. McCain means overturning Roe v. Wade. McCain means more Republican economic disaster.

If these so-called McCain Democrats can't see the forest for the trees then they shouldn't complain when John McBush continues to lead the country to Hell.

by elrod on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:44:04 PM EST

Re: McCain Democrats just Waiting (none / 0)

"Stephenapolous & Rothenberg expect these McCain democrats to start being significantly noticed the minute Sen. Barack Obama knocks off Hillary Clinton. Or when Clinton officially withdraws her candidacy."

They are correct.

4 of us here just waiting to make the move IF this is the outcome.

by nikkid on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 12:43:41 AM EST

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