New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45%

The poll by Newsmax\Zogby was done between April 15th-16th (Tues & Wed. The only other poll to come out today was from PPP, which showed Obama in the lead. While the two polls that came out most recently show this to be a very close race, I just don't feel it. I think it's HRC ahead by 8-9%.

The article follows below, with a link to it.
--
UTICA, New York – With just five days left before Democratic primary voters go to polls to decide who they want to be their presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are locked in a battle that is too close to call, the latest Newsmax/Zogby telephone poll shows. The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2008 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday’s contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia, shows Clinton at 45% and Obama at 44%, with 12% either wanting someone else or left undecided. The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 601 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Clinton leads by a wide margin in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, while Obama leads by a large percentage in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In the central part of the state, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Pollster John Zogby – “This is not a year for negative campaigning and Clinton’s pounding of Obama on his controversial description of small town voters in Pennsylvania does not seem to be working. Obama leads in the Philadelphia and eastern part of the Commonwealth, among African Americans, and Very Liberal Pennsylvanians. He also has a slight lead among voters in union households and has an 18 point margin over those who have lost a job. Clinton maintains her lead among whites, Catholics, Liberals, and Hispanics. “The gender gap is huge with Obama leading among men by 15 and Clinton leading among women by 15. But Clinton holds a wide advantage on the question of understanding Pennsylvania (58%-27%) and handling the economy of the country (47%-38%). She also is ahead in understanding the personal financial situation of individuals (41%-35%). “On the other hand, Pennsylvanians by a two to one margin (60% to 29%) are more likely to agree with supporters of Obama that voters in Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic situation than with Clinton and critics of Obama that he is an elitist who does not understand working people. “On the key questions of who they would rather have a beer with: Clinton 38%, Obama 39% -- with 15% undecided. A key demographic group that has changed its mind in the last week is Democratic voters age 35 to 54, who just one week ago favored Clinton by a 45% to 40% margin. Now, Obama leads among those voters by a 47% to 41% edge. Clinton leads among voters older than age 54, while Obama leads among the younger set. Among men, Obama holds what has come to be a predictable advantage, leading with 50% support, compared to 35% for Clinton. But Clinton makes up for it among women – also a predictable support group for her – leading by a 53% to 38% margin. Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads, while Clinton leads among mainline liberals. Among moderates, the two are deadlocked, while Clinton has an edge among conservative Democratic voters. Among whites and Hispanics, Clinton holds double-digit leads, while Obama holds a huge lead among African Americans, winning 82% support. Two issues were dominant in the minds of these voters – with the economy far and away the most important to voters in deciding whom to support – 54% said it was at the top of their list. The Iraq war was a distant second, with all other issues winning just a passing notice from the likely voters. Asked which candidate was most likely to improve the respondent’s personal financial situation, Clinton won 41%, compared to 35% who said Obama would be tops. Six percent identified someone else, while 19% said they were unsure. Asked which candidate would be most likely to improve the U.S. economy, Clinton also held an advantage, winning 47% support to 38% who said Obama was most likely. Men favored Obama, while women favored Clinton. http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Newsmax_poll_hillary/2008/04/16/88622.html http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Newsmax_poll_hillary/2008/04/16/88622.html



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Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

I think it'll end up being 54-HC; 43-BO


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:53:23 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

I'd consider that good enough for Obama, btw. I'd prefer he kept her closer, but she really needs close to 20 points to get the right kind of delegate pick-up.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:54:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Is that the same 'newsmax' that...? (none / 0)

If it is, they aren't credible in my opinion..


Obama trivializes the problems of 2/3 of America because the issues facing us are complex issues that Obama's team is unwilling or fearful to address.
by architek on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 07:01:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Contrary to Sen. Clinton's slogan (none / 0)

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/opinion/ 20080417_VOTE_FOR_BARACK_OBAMA.html

Excerpt

Contrary to Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign slogan, we believe Barack Obama is more likely to be "ready on Day One" to lead us in a new direction. Because of his experience.

Sure, Clinton has more "experience" of a sort. For one thing, she has 14 more years on earth. How much of this experience is directly applicable to the job of president is, at best, debatable.

We are frankly troubled by her assumption that her husband's administration and accomplishments were her own. And if her equation holds, that the first spouse is an equal partner in the administration, then the reappearance of Bill Clinton in the White House is a prospect we have a hard time reconciling with the work that needs to be done.

THERE IS a way to match Clinton's and Obama's performances on a relatively equal playing field: their campaigns.

A candidate's campaign may be the best indicator of how she or he will govern. If so, an Obama administration would be well-managed, inclusive and astonishingly broad-based. It would make good use of technology and communicate a message of unity and, yes, hope.

It would not be content with eking out slim victories by playing to the narrow interests of the swing voters of the moment while leaving the rest of the country as deeply divided as ever. Instead, an Obama administration would seek to expand the number of Americans who believe that they have a personal stake in our collective future - and that they have the power to change things.

It would motivate them to hold their representatives accountable for making it happen. That is, after all, the only way to get us out of Iraq, to address global warming, to make us energy-independent. It's the only way to resist the forces arrayed against providing universal health care, rebuilding our infrastructure and returning our schools to world-class status. It's the only way to give our children the means to compete with children in other parts of the world who are healthier, better-educated and have more opportunities than many of our own.

An Obama administration would be freer of the the corrupting influence of big-money donors and corporate interests. Obama has raised $240 million overall, with half coming in contributions of less than $200. People who contribute to political campaigns can feel they "own" a candidate and so Obama would owe allegiance to the wide swath of America that has financed his campaign.

Based on his experience in running a quarter-billion-dollar enterprise with thousands upon thousands of volunteers, we could expect an Obama administration to be well-managed and cost-effective, with the president choosing forward-thinking advisers committed to his program, demanding that they work as a team and pay attention to details.

He would be steady and calm, given neither to irrational exuberance or outbursts of anger. He would make mistakes, that's for sure, but he could be expected to recognize them, adjust, and move forward.

He would adjust his views to reality rather than trying to adjust reality to his views.

Obama's unprecedented appeal to younger voters is significant not only because it expands the electorate, which is vital. It's also a validation of his promise as a president to be free of the baby-boomer/Vietnam/segregation-era hangups.

Younger people are more egalitarian, more accepting of diversity, and more comfortable with rapid change. They also are less confined by old resentments or regrets.

AND AN OBAMA administration would lower the tone of the rhetoric that separates us.

As New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has said, Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who has the skill and eloquence to help us raise our eyes and our aspirations beyond individual, personal concerns, beyond religion or region or race or gender, beyond our well-founded fears to a shared destiny.

Most candidates claim that they will change the way business is done in Washington. Barack Obama has made us believe that, yes, he can.


by dearreader on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 07:52:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If Zogby says it (none / 0)

it must be wrong.  They've had a horrible track record.  I'd say Obama is down by about 10-12 points right now.  I'd be surprised if the gap closed to anything less than that by election day.


John McCain: Just like Bush..only older
by jkfp2004 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:54:40 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

Hmm. We'll just have to wait and see how things play out. Nobody'll know until it happens.


Campaigning with KnowVox for the nominee in the fall.
by ragekage on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:54:59 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

What a well thought out response. You must have studied logic.


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (2.00 / 1)

Ugh. I don't want Zogby showing good numbers for Obama. The Newsmax tag is hilarious.  They commissioned this poll?


by elrod on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:56:44 AM EST

Debate (none / 0)

Just curious, but what does this mean?

"The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2008 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday's contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia"

Does this mean some voters were polled as they were watching the debate? Interesting if true. The anti-negativity sentiment cited in the poll might help Obama after this debate.


by elrod on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:00:07 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

Well, that must really mean that Clinton is ahead by 20%...

Why has Zogby become so crappy?  They used to be incredibly reliable... then, after they blew it in 2004, the outfit just went totally down the tubes!


by LordMike on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:00:50 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

Zogby is a de-facto Obama campaign operative - his brother, the president of an Arab American institute is an Obama superdelegate.  He's just doing his job.


by anatol on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 04:38:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

I don't see how it helps to be so incredibly wrong all the time... no one believes his polls, and his polls' enthusiasm for Obama hurts the candidate, not helps him...


by LordMike on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:05:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

Obama might actually win after that abortion of a debate... the crowd actually heckled and booed the moderators


by CaptMorgan on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:02:06 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (2.00 / 1)

These polls are wack. I've never believed anything less than Clinton +10.

I'd love to see Obama close into single digits, but I don't think it will happen in real life.


by Ddeele on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:03:21 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (2.00 / 1)

I wish, but I find it hard to believe.

Interesting how Obama supporters tend to deny outliers in our favor and Clinton supporters believe them.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:03:52 AM EST

Zogby (2.00 / 1)

is on the level of Marist, ARG, and SV.

Give me a reliable poll like Q-Pac or  Rasmussen or SUSA.


This site is dedicated to electing democrats. (from the guidelines)

Bring Back the Wonk - Just say No to the Primary War.

by Student Guy on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:06:56 AM EST

Re: Zogby (2.00 / 2)

On a random note, this site has gotten far, far worse. I barely read or post these days, but having spent a bit more time here tonight because of the debate, I see it is really out of control.

Sure, they'll ban you if you post an outrageously offensive diary, but short of that, anything goes.

I give you credit for even trying.


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:31:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah this site is really bad (2.00 / 1)

It is kind of like a car accident.  You just can't look away.  

And at least most people can see that ABC was ARG level in its crappiness.


This site is dedicated to electing democrats. (from the guidelines)

Bring Back the Wonk - Just say No to the Primary War.

by Student Guy on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 03:33:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Three things wrong with this diary... (none / 0)

1.) Zogby (one of the very worst track records for accurate polling in the past year...pathetic)

2.) PPP (not very far behind in the most inaccurate pollsters race)

3.) That's one hell of a paragraph you got there! (Makes your diary very difficult to read.)


by bobswern on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:14:35 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

I just can't get over the Newsmax connection. How low they've sunk.

This poll may be right. There've been a few showing a very close race. The very reputable F&M poll has it at 6 points. And SUSA, despite its track record this year, has not polled PA since 2004 so they may not get the demographics right. Q-Poll has it at 6 too. But I doubt it's tied.


by elrod on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:24:32 AM EST

Zogby is shit (none / 0)

The poll to watch in PA is the Franklin & Marshall one. They have been good the last couple cycles (i.e. Rendell v. Swann and Casey v. santorum). Pretty good in the GE in 2004 as well.

And I don't think you can argue with Survey USA's track record either.

Franklin & Marshall and SurveyUSA diverge, so something has to give. I would be willing to guess that it is somewhere in between, probably Clinton by 10 or so.


by johnnyappleseed on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:29:40 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

After California, I have no respect for Zogby.  That poll single-handedly embarrassed Obama that day by creating sky high expectations, even while other polls had Clinton up 10% (which turned out to be correct).  


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was McCain, and Hell followed with him.
by freedom78 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:37:03 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

Either Zogby and PPP is right, or Survey USA and ARG is right. We will see on Tuesday and I can't wait.

Here is my thinking, if Clinton nets 200,000 votes, I will consider this a good night. Anything less will make it tough for her to win the popular vote.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:57:31 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (2.00 / 1)

There is one important reason why I believe PA will be a double digit win for Clinton. Since April 1, every poll has Obama at 45% or lower. In fact, he has been consistently at 40%-43%. Considering Clinton wins late decider's (about 10% of the voters make up their minds on the last day), I think she will win PA by 10%-12%. This is not the south where Obama outperforms his poll numbers, this is Hillaryland.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 02:26:33 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

I agree with your sound analysis.

If this were in one of his strength states, like NC will be, and she were unable to crack 43 consistently (as she has not), I would not put a lot of stock in polls that show them "tied."


by reggie44pride on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 02:43:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

Hillary should win PA, but I wonder if the fact that the debate seemed somewhat one-sided, in favor of Hillary, that there might be some backlash and swing a couple percent to Obama.  Even if that happens, I still think Hillary will win PA by close to 10 points.  She'll win WV in a landslide and Indiana by 5.  She'll lose NC and Oregon decidedly.  Eventually the writing will be on the wall and she'll come to terms with the fact that she just can't win.  Obama supporters will all be able to breath a sigh of relief, recognize her for her fight, and then hopefully we can all get together behind Obama for the GE.  


by froggyman on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 05:21:44 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

Not without michigan and florida


by WAREHOUSE553 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 05:33:31 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (2.00 / 1)

Interesting, but likely just an outlier.

Still, it's yet another poll which shows no ill effects from "bittergate".


by smoothmedia on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:58:57 AM EST

Re: New PA Poll: HRC 46%, Obama 45% (none / 0)

Zogby Poll for California on Feb 3-4

Democrats 2/3-4

Obama   Clinton
 49%      36%

No need for a comment!


by orionwest on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 09:12:53 AM EST


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