The battle over Florida's convention delegates may be taking its toll on Barack Obama's prospects in the Sunshine State. For the second time in three months, John McCain enjoys a double digit lead over the Democratic frontrunner. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows McCain attracting 53% of the vote while Obama earns 38%. Last month, amidst talk of a possible Florida revote, Obama had closed to within single digits of McCain. In February, however, Obama trailed McCain by sixteen points.

If McCain is matched against Hillary Clinton, the race is a toss-up--Clinton 45% McCain 44%.

Barack Obama's supporters have often made various claims about the man's standing in Florida and its causes. Either it's because of demographics, it's because of him agreeing not to campaign in the state, and it's definitely not because he threw a wrench into the Democratic process. Unfortunately, the numbers tell a different story, and what happened to Florida is a much longer and complicated story than he and his surrogated would have you believe--and further beyond this, Barack Obama is ruining his chances in this state if he is the Democratic nominee.

We'll start by going back to the bill in question which moved Florida's primary up.

Florida House Bill 537

Governor Charlie Crist today signed House Bill 537 that will establish a paper trail for all votes cast in Florida elections. The election-reform legislation will provide optical scan machines for counties that do not already have them for Election Day voting and early voting sites. The legislation also changes the date of Florida's presidential primary to the last Tuesday in January.

Now, if you know anything about Florida politics, you know there is no responsible way to make a case against Florida Democrats voting for a paper trail. This lack of a paper trail cost Al Gore the election in 2000 and kept Democrat Christine Jennings out of congress in 2006. This entire process reveals a shocking truth behind the DNC (and Barack Obama's) position on the matter: it is rooted around a bill that was a victory for Democracy and Florida Democrats who want their votes counted. There is no conceivable way that any conscionable Florida Democrat could have or should have voted against this bill.

Even further, the state Democratic Party has never treated this election as irrelevant. Florida Democrats statewide were implored to get out, vote, and make their voices heard. From makeitcountflorida.com:

The Party does not consider the January 29th election a "beauty contest" or a "straw poll." On January 29, 2008, there will be a fair and open primary election in Florida, which will provide for maximum voter participation -- calling it anything but an election is disrespectful and misleading.

In March, the Saint Petersburg Times issued a poll which established, incontrovertibly, that Florida Democrats want the primary to count, and would even be less likely to vote Democratic in November if the DNC chooses to stick to its guns and disenfranchise a record-breaking primary in this state.

Howard Dean and Barack Obama may insist Florida's Democratic presidential primary was meaningless, but a new poll shows Florida Democrats aren't buying it, and one in four may not back their party's nominee in November if Florida winds up with no voice in the nomination.

Not only do Florida Democrats say that the Democratic presidential contenders' boycott of their primary had little effect, but an overwhelming plurality want the officially meaningless results to count, a new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll finds.

The poll also finds that, despite Barack Obama and Howard Dean's attempt to deflect criticism directed at them, only one in five find the Florida Democratic Party at fault for the Florida debacle. A staggering 25% of Florida Democrats are less likely to vote Democratic in November if the primary results are not counted.

Florida Democrats point the finger of blame for the primary debacle in several directions: 28 percent blame Republican leaders in the Legislature, 25 percent blame Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, and 20 percent blame the Florida Democratic party.

More than three out of four Florida Democrats say it's "very important" that Florida's delegates count toward the nomination, and one in four said they would be less likely to support the ultimate Democratic nominee if Florida's delegates don't count.

Floridian Democrats want their delegates seated, they do NOT feel that the primary was in any way illegitimate (including the lack of campaigning--and furthermore, the only TV ad I ever saw here was for Obama), and the Democratic Party simply cannot afford to damage its chances in this state the way that elitist party bigwigs Donna Brazile, Barack Obama, and Howard Dean are promoting. It's politically irresponsible to the interests of Florida voters and to the Democratic Party in the fall; the proponents of intentionally slighting these voters for the sake of hurting Hillary Clinton ought to be ashamed of their abandonment of their values, their fellow Democrats, and their fellow Americans.

In the midst of all this, I am reminded that Hillary Clinton speaks for the voices of myself, my family, and my friends to be heard:

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton warned Tuesday that it would be a "grave mistake" for the Democratic Party to refuse to seat Florida's delegates to the national convention this summer.

"I think it would be a grave mistake for the Democrats to disregard the highest turnout in primary history in Florida," Clinton said in response to questions following a speech to a joint meeting of The Associated Press, the American Society of Newspaper Editors and the Newspaper Association of America.

"I have called and will continue to call on the Democratic Party to make a decision that respects the votes of the people of Florida and gives those votes due consideration in seating the delegates that will go to the convention in Denver," she added.