Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady; Rasmussen: Clinton Gaining

by Todd Beeton, Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:47:39 AM EST

bumped - Todd

Contrary to ARG's poll released yesterday, which showed a 20 point swing toward Clinton in just a week in Pennsylvania, the new Quinnipiac University poll shows the race holding steady at a 6 point Clinton lead.

CandidateApril 9-13April 3-6
Clinton5050
Obama4444

You'll note that the poll went into the field before Obama's comments got widespread coverage, but Quinnipiac's conclusion was that:

There was no noticeable shift in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama's 'bitter' comments.

That's not to say there wasn't some movement, it's just that it was somewhat of a tug o war, with Clinton gaining ground in the Philadelphia suburbs and Obama making gains among African-Americans and men. Most of Clinton's good news in the poll, though, is simply having "halted the erosion" of support among her core constituencies, especially women and white voters. Here's a rundown of how various demographic groups polled this week versus last:

  • White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
  • Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent;
  • Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, unchanged from 54 - 41 percent last week;
  • Men are for Obama 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 48 - 44 percent tie last week;

On the other hand, Rasmussen Reports poll, which was in the field yesterday, shows Clinton actually widening her lead over Senator Obama by 5 points in just a week.

CandidateApril 14April 7
Clinton5048
Obama4143

Rasmussen doesn't conclude whether Clinton's increase was directly due to coverage of Obama's comments, but they did poll people's attitudes about the comments and the results certainly suggest that they may have had an impact.

In Pennsylvania, 75% of Likely Primary Voters have heard of the remarks. Thirty-five percent (35%) agree and 51% disagree. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Obama supporters agree with the comments while 25% disagree. Among Clinton supporters, 73% disagree.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) say that the comments reflect an elitist view of small town America. Forty-eight percent (48%) disagree. Most Clinton voters (57%) believe Obama's comments reflect an elitist view while Obama voters overwhelmingly reject that notion.

My suspicion is that the truth is somewhere in between, but the fact is, even before the current controversy, Clinton was re-asserting herself in the state. Of course, what we've learned this primary season is that 1 week is an eternity, so if Obama's comments did hurt him in the state, he certainly has plenty of time to reverse it.




Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, pennsylvania primary, hillary clinton, barack obama (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 44 Comments :: Post a Comment


Good Luck (none / 0)

I don't think he will reverse it.  As we saw in the Ohio poll, Clinton pulls ahead in the last days as her core groups "come home to mama".  Most polls underestimated her in the end (except SUSA).  Obama better hope SUSA isn't right this time- or he's gonna have some splainin' to do- after breaking all records for candidate spending in Penn.


by easyE on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:42:33 AM EST

Re: Good Luck (none / 0)

I agree and the onslaught of journalists such as Robinson and company hitting Clinton for Obama's "bitter" gaffe this week leading up to this primary is an indication of exactly what is going down in Pennslyvania and it ain't Clinton....


by Liberty on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:10:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good Luck (none / 0)

Out of curiosity, why do you single out "Robinson" as the headliner to the "and company"?


John McCain defends Bush's Iraq strategy.
by recusancy on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:30:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You Are On Your Own (2.00 / 1)

Excerpt

But we know that for the past seven and a half years, we've had a whole different philosophy in the White House. They call it the ownership society - but what it means is you're on your own.  You're a worker who's been laid off from a job? Tough luck, you're on your own. You're a single mom trying to find health care for your kids? Tough luck, you're on your own.  You're a senior whose pension got dumped after a lifetime of hard work? Tough luck, you're on your own. - Obama

Now, John McCain seems to think the Bush years have been pretty good because he's offering more of the same. And today's a good reminder of that because it's Tax Day. This is supposed to be a day when we pay what we owe to the government. But it's become a day when George Bush's Washington rewards its friends on Wall Street. - Obama

http://thepage.time.com/full-text-of-oba mas-remarks-to-the-building-trades-legis lative-conference/


by dearreader on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:02:47 AM EST

With a margin of error of +/- 4%... (2.00 / 2)

...in the Rasmussen Poll a 2% shift could also simply mean that there is no movement present in the past week.

Thanks for the demographics though :)


by CapTim on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:04:30 AM EST

Re: With a margin of error of +/- 4%... (2.00 / 1)

Thank you for knowing how to read a poll.

There was no statistically significant change in either Rasmussen or SUSA this week.

I wrote a diary about this last night when Jonathan was saying +9 to +16 for Indiana for Clinton was not statistically significant.


by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:02:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: With a margin of error of +/- 4%... (none / 0)

Agree.

Now explain why Obama's flood of the PA media market has not brought the returns it normally does.

Given his HUUUGE airtime and ad advantage, with one week to go he should have surged to equal Senator Clinton, not be holding steady "within the MOE".

I have a feeling, a hunch that "Bittergate" cost Obama about 5 points of expensive, hard-fought momentum leading up to the primary, and it ain't over yet.


by dembluestates on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:33:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: With a margin of error of +/- 4%... (none / 0)

certainly; those comments and the subsequent press onslaught harmed him quite badly in PA.  Money isn't everything in a campaign, just ask Mitt Romney.


by semiquaver on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:44:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: With a margin of error of +/- 4%... (none / 0)

"Now explain why Obama's flood of the PA media market has not brought the returns it normally does."

You can only do so much with the demographics in place.

Clinton could spend 10 million in North Carolina and not move 2%!

"a hunch that "Bittergate" cost Obama about 5 points of expensive"

Hard to quantify, but I would say it adds 2-3 points for her.  Not a big amount.


by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:44:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady (none / 0)

The new SUSA poll has Clinton up by 14.

Says Election Inspection: "If you believe last week's SUSA poll was valid, Obama has improved 4 points since then. Now kick yourself for believing last week's C+18 SUSA poll was valid, you fool!"

I then heap abuse on ARG, figure Rasmussen looks like a good median, and return to my prediction of 2 weeks ago: Clinton by 5-15% in PA, gaining 14 delegates.


Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!
by X Stryker on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:17:55 AM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady (2.00 / 1)

"Clinton by 5-15% in PA"

You are really going out on a limb there.  Way to narrow in that prediction from a small win to a rather big one.

Posting the same thing at pollster doesn't make it any more of a bold prediction.  Almost anyone would predict 5-15%


by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nah, I'd predict 7-17% (none / 0)

Same idea, though:

"See that rock I just threw up in the air?  I bet it hits the earth when it comes down!"

:Rock lands:

"See what a great prognosticator I am!"


by RT on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 05:19:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady (none / 0)

My own prediction about Pennsylvania is Clinton by 9 (with a margin of error of +3/-1) so I'm basically going with anywhere between 8-12 points with a total delegate take of 14 for Clinton (for all you Clinton supporters out there, that's not a big win)


by TheNewMexican on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 07:59:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Argh! (none / 0)

"If you believe last week's SUSA poll was valid, Obama has improved 4 points since then."

Due to the MOE, he did not improve by a statistically significant margin.

"kick yourself for believing last week's C+18 SUSA poll was valid, you fool"

Their +18 and +14 polls are not significantly different, statistically speaking.


by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:01:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady (none / 0)

Come on 5-15%, you're not taking any chances with your prediction, that is such a large margin that you are leaving room for.

I think that  barring no missteps at the debate or in between 4/22, she will win by 10-14% which is enough to carry her on to a win in IN.

Her base is standing firm i.e women, union workers, seniors, catholics, union workers.  The latebreakers usually swing to her and if that happens, we can add about 2-3pts to the average of those polls throwing out Arg.


by shark on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady; Rasmussen: Clin (2.00 / 1)

It's a foregone conclusion that Hillary will win the state.  Obama's goal is to limit the win as much as possible.  

At this point, Indiana is much more important for Obama to win.  He needs to get in there hard as soon as he can.  A win there and in North Carolina will probably end this thing.  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:27:46 AM EST

Re: Foregon(e) Conclusion (none / 0)

If that's true, and I hope it is, why did Clinton have to cut her Philadelphia J-J speech off after five minutes?  CBSNews reports that attendees wouldn't shut up to allow her to speak and she abandoned the effort after five minutes.


by creeper1014 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:35:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Foregon(e) Conclusion (2.00 / 1)

"wouldn't shut up to allow her to speak "

Speaks volumes to the average person about their manners.


by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:46:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rasmussen is the most accurate (2.00 / 1)

Rasmussen is the best poll going right now.  With the robo calls and constant polling they get good predictive data.

Here is my take, Obama has kicked rural Pennsylvania in the jewels.  But he did it during the end of the weekly news cycle and most of the discussion was over the weekend when people don't pay attention as much.  So we haven't really seen the fallout from "bittergate" yet.

For those of you that don't get it, Obama cannot belittle God & guns for the same reason Trent Lott cannot suggest Strom Thurmond would have been a good President.  It is that simple.  Obama just did something 10x worse than "I voted for it before I voted against it."


by dMarx on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:47:58 AM EST

Re: Rasmussen is the most accurate (2.00 / 0)

If Obama's comment is 10x worse than Kerry's, where does a vote to invade Iraq and never admit you were wrong rank?


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:50:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen is the most accurate (none / 0)

Once again, Senator Clinton did NOT "vote to invade Iraq".

She voted to give Bush the authority he demanded to act as wartime Commander in Chief, with safeguards.


by dembluestates on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:35:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen is the most accurate (none / 0)

Which resulted in the invasion of Iraq. Your point is?


by tysonpublic on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:04:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Never Admitting You Were Wrong (none / 0)

You're quibbling.

"CLINTON: Well, obviously, I've said many times that, although my vote on the 2002 authorization regarding Iraq was a sincere vote, I would not have voted that way again."

Cleveland, Ohio - February 26, 2008

Now you'll come back and whine that she never used the word "wrong".  Go ahead. The meaning of her words is clear and all the nitpicking in the world won't change it.


by creeper1014 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is not Kerry (2.00 / 1)

You're forgetting that Obama is not Kerry. Republicans will always paint Democras as elitists. But it's a lot harder to paint a black man as an elitist. Sorry, but that's how the culture of elitism works. The essential Democratic elitist is the New England patrician Democrat. It isn't the South Side Chicago black politician.

Oh, and Obama has already shown how can turn around attacks on him a thousand times better than Kerry. Obama is a fighter.


by elrod on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:50:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen is the most accurate (none / 0)

By what metric is Rasmussen the most accurate?

Because you want them to be?


by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:57:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

There was no change! (none / 0)

"Rasmussen doesn't conclude whether Clinton's increase"

Given that the MOE is certainly greater than 2, there was no statistically significant change in either the Rasmussen or SUSA polls.


by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:50:59 AM EST

Re: There was no change! (none / 0)

Why do you say that there was no change in the Ras poll. She increased by 4pts from the previous poll which had her up by 5pts.

Also, Ras polls, imo, have not been the most accurate pollster for Dem primaries in this race.  Check out it's predictions for Oh, Tx etc.

I would say that bad pollster Arg got Tx just about right and wasn't too far off for Oh.


by shark on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:27:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady; Rasmussen: Clin (2.00 / 1)

Tomorrow night's debate will factor a little, ya think? Being behind the the total primary Clinton has to go after Obama. You know ABC will go for gotcha's on both sides.
check out this (they are all good but scroll down to Monday to the question he asked Obama)
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/attyt ood/
"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie
by nogo war on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:12:14 PM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady; Rasmussen: Clin (2.00 / 1)

In the scheme of things , I really don't think the whole bitter thing would move that much votes.

Both candidates are practically frozen in place.

Just trying to fight for voters at the margins , people have been following these elections for a long time and I figure most people have made up their minds by now , I don't even think the debate would mean much in the scheme of things unless there is some earth shattering event.


When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line
by lori on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:18:25 PM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady; Rasmussen: Clin (2.00 / 1)

Once again, my fellow East Tennessean is the voice of reason :)


by elrod on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:48:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton wins by 12 n/t (none / 0)


by activatedbybush on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:21:24 PM EST

Not Current (none / 0)

Studying poll results that do not reflect Obama's and Clinton's latest remarks makes no sense to me.  This is anal.  Let the dust settle around recent events and then look at the polls.


by creeper1014 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:30:56 PM EST

Rasmussen results are within margin of error (none / 0)

okay a couple of points here andthere from previous poll is not really much to bank upon.


by ann0nymous on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:38:05 PM EST

ONE week to go (none / 0)

Still sticking with my 14% Clinton win prediction.


Rise, Hillary, Rise
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:42:15 PM EST

Re: ONE week to go (2.00 / 1)

I say Clinton by 8. The Casey endorsement helps a lot and a bunch of PA Democrats just want this thing over with.  The demographics are too hard for Obama to break through to get much closer than 8. 14 is a worse case scenario for Obama and 2 is probably a best case.


by elrod on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:52:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ONE week to go (none / 0)

Im going with +12....for Obama!!!!

Just kidding.  Clinton +12 is my guess.


by pattonbt on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 12:47:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bittergate (none / 0)

and his failure to apologize lost him the nomination.

Time to unite with the one who gives hope for the future and can admit mistakes,

Hillary Clinton.


by gotalife on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:52:41 PM EST

Re: Bittergate (none / 0)

Except for mistakes that involve the biggest issue of political career, of course.

/disclaimer


by GobBluth on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:09:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bittergate (2.00 / 1)

Boy, that's it, you convinced me. Sure, Obama leads in total delegates, states won, the popular vote and money raised, but the fact that polling in PA is unchanged proves that he's lost!

/snark


"I will veto every single beer!" -- John McCain
by fwiffo3 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: PA Race Is Steady; Rasmussen: Clin (2.00 / 1)

You can't paint a black guy as a elitist. No such thing exists.
My god, I haven't heard a more funny tag line in my life. Put Obama in a sport's jersey and he looks like a football player or coach. People have already seen him up close, they know the truth. This whole business is a storm in a teacup.
A former hillary supporter.
by Cristalgirl on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:17:06 PM EST

Gallup's tracking mostly unchanged (none / 0)

Gallup's tracking poll is out for today.  Obama's lead is now 11 points, which is marginally up (within the margin of error) from the past few days. Together with Rasmussen's tracking numbers, there might be a slight upward trend in Obama's margin.

I think in a lot of Democratic circles, Clinton's attacks are seen as low-brow and clumsy; could she be facing a blow-back?


"I will veto every single beer!" -- John McCain
by fwiffo3 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:18:29 PM EST

Gaining??? (none / 0)

How exactly is she gaining when she was up by 20 points a few weeks ago and now she is up by 6.
Umm, my math says she is losing.
That is my she and her minions are all over the airwaves slashing obama.
and how nice to see her downing crown royal in a bar.
how nice.
by kareng on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:32:19 PM EST

whats the breakdown (none / 0)

in gender among those polled in both the quin. and ras. numbers?
Are they polling 48% men and 52% women?
Rise, Hillary, Rise
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:10:26 PM EST

PA Race Is Steady; Rasmussen: Clinton Gaining (none / 0)

Anything can happen in the next six days, but, at this point, this pod for Obama is content. PA is truly Clinton country. Here was the place for my senator to net the massive haul of delegates she needed to resurrect herself. Unless Clinton wins 65-35 needed to net 50 delegates, this is not going to happen. The Obama investment of resources in PA was a wide one if this plays out to a 60-40 conclusion. Clinton gets nothing -- except a blackened reputation for doing McCain's dirty work.


by NYWoman on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 04:52:26 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.

Login
Username:

Password: