Contrary to ARG's poll released yesterday, which showed a 20 point swing toward Clinton in just a week in Pennsylvania, the new Quinnipiac University poll shows the race holding steady at a 6 point Clinton lead.
| Candidate | April 9-13 | April 3-6 |
| Clinton | 50 | 50 |
| Obama | 44 | 44 |
You'll note that the poll went into the field before Obama's comments got widespread coverage, but Quinnipiac's conclusion was that:
There was no noticeable shift in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama's 'bitter' comments.
That's not to say there wasn't some movement, it's just that it was somewhat of a tug o war, with Clinton gaining ground in the Philadelphia suburbs and Obama making gains among African-Americans and men. Most of Clinton's good news in the poll, though, is simply having "halted the erosion" of support among her core constituencies, especially women and white voters. Here's a rundown of how various demographic groups polled this week versus last:
- White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
- Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent;
- Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, unchanged from 54 - 41 percent last week;
- Men are for Obama 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 48 - 44 percent tie last week;
On the other hand, Rasmussen Reports poll, which was in the field yesterday, shows Clinton actually widening her lead over Senator Obama by 5 points in just a week.
| Candidate | April 14 | April 7 |
| Clinton | 50 | 48 |
| Obama | 41 | 43 |
Rasmussen doesn't conclude whether Clinton's increase was directly due to coverage of Obama's comments, but they did poll people's attitudes about the comments and the results certainly suggest that they may have had an impact.
In Pennsylvania, 75% of Likely Primary Voters have heard of the remarks. Thirty-five percent (35%) agree and 51% disagree. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Obama supporters agree with the comments while 25% disagree. Among Clinton supporters, 73% disagree.My suspicion is that the truth is somewhere in between, but the fact is, even before the current controversy, Clinton was re-asserting herself in the state. Of course, what we've learned this primary season is that 1 week is an eternity, so if Obama's comments did hurt him in the state, he certainly has plenty of time to reverse it.Thirty-seven percent (37%) say that the comments reflect an elitist view of small town America. Forty-eight percent (48%) disagree. Most Clinton voters (57%) believe Obama's comments reflect an elitist view while Obama voters overwhelmingly reject that notion.
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