Obama winning big in WV county conventions today

I've been posting for quite some time now of the large gap in West Virginia in the grassroots support and county level Democratic activists for Sen. Barack Obama well out of proportion to the polls that showed Sen. Hillary Clinton ahead in West Virginia by a large margin.

Today in Berkeley County, one of the largest counties in the state, 50 of the 52 delegates elected at the county convention today to the state convention in Charleston were Sen. Barack Obama supporters.

Check out Clem's explanation of West Virginia's convoluted primary process. Basically we elected delegates at the county level who'll be electing delegates at the state level. However, the delegates will be selected to the national convention proportional to the votes their candidates received. The primary vote still matters (voting runs from April 23 to May 13 in West Virginia since we have early voting). What this shows is the enthusiasm gap in the state and also could very well signal turnout for the primary. Telephone polls are not the same as going to the ballot box.

West Virginia Blue is getting comments and emails from other counties showing other high support for Obama.

* Morgan County, 30 out of 32 delegates for Obama.

* Ohio County, 75 percent of the crowd were estimated to be Obama supporters. No delegate count included. 40 of 44 delegates for Obama. Hat tip to WV26003.

* Pocahontas County, 100 percent of delegates for Obama.

* Greenbrier County, 25 out of 28 delegates for Obama. Three uncommitted.

* Kanawha County sounded more chaotic and I haven't got a report on numbers there yet.

Most of my afternoon was tied up in the Valley district of Berkeley County.

There was a line to get in to the Berkeley County Democratic headquarters. It took a while to get in, but the local Democrats ran it very smoothly, asking the people their names and precinct to know which district to put them in. There are six districts in the county. I'm in the Valley district. There, of 24 people who attended, one woman said she was for Clinton although she was adamant she would vote for Obama in November since it appeared to her he'd be the nominee. The other 23 were all Obama supporters.

Ken Collinson was elected to chair the county convention. Ken was the only one to raise his hand up to vote against him doing it.

Under the rules, we had to pick four women and four men to serve as delegates to the state convention in Charleston on June 13 and 14 (fixed where I left XX in rough draft. Carnacki). We had four women who said they could attend and all were Obama supporters so we elected them as a slate for our district. We had seven men who were nominated for the four delegate positions and so we had each of them tell a little about themselves. All said they were absolutely committed to Obama. One of the men has volunteered for the Obama campaign in other states and is going to Pennsylvania next weekend to canvass. Another began the veterans Camp Kerry that drew many veterans to volunteer for the Kerry-Edwards campaign. Another was our local Democrat of the year and an active volunteer. The fourth man has been active with the Obama campaign. We also had a diverse slate demographically of older and younger Democrats. Two of the women and one of the men are African Americans.

The meeting hall had been jammed packed with bodies. I estimated the crowd at one point to have been about 150 people and in the narrow long space of a former clothing shop that was a tight squeeze, particularly on a warm day.

After most of the delegates had been selected, many people left, which was fortunate because I don't think the air conditioning was working.

One of the six districts had four women delegates but did not have any men who could commit to the state convention. So those seats and two at large seats were put up for a county wide vote as well as two at large seats for women delegates. Interestingly, two women who have long been active in local Democratic activities were not selected over two enthusiastic Obama supporters. In the past, attending the state convention has been seen as an award for party participation. We were able to get one more of our men on one of the six remaining slots for male delegates.

I was told one of the men, a long time Democrat and active volunteer in campaign after campaign, one of those older gentlemen there every weekend rain or shine, was a Clinton supporter. I do not know if that is true. He's on a county executive committee and under the county rules are not supposed to publicly say one way or the other. However, if he were supporting his dog for president I would have still voted for him to go. Others apparently felt the same way and he was elected. Would I have felt the same way if it wasn't so overwhelming Obama? I don't know.

But it was.

Here's a photo taken by one of our local Democrats, Ryan Frankenberry as we elected the two at large seats for the women. This is nearly two hours after the county convention began, iirc, and most of the crowd has left.

This is what democracy looks like - at least at the sweaty, county level at least.

Update [2008-4-12 20:0:27 by Carnacki]: More on the county convention and state convention process at the West Virginia Democrats site here pdf.



Display:


Re: Obama winning big in WV county conventions tod (2.00 / 2)

After most of the delegates had been selected, many people left, which was fortunate because I don't think the air conditioning was working.

Funny to read about AC when my house is still surrounded by a good three feet or more of snow.

Was there any talk of the Outrage Du Jour that proves that Obama is the Worst Person Ever?


by BlueinColorado on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 07:27:04 PM EST

oh please, it's all blog-blather ;p (2.00 / 2)

anyway, congrats to Obama, good indication if he can win there for him in the GE


by zerosumgame on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 07:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There was some discussion (none / 0)

But it was from people agreeing with him, including the Hillary Clinton supporter in the Valley district.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:24:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama winning big in WV county conventions tod (2.00 / 1)

Can someone explain what this means? WV hasn't even voted yet - what are these conventions?


by DamnYankees on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 07:46:51 PM EST

Damn Yankee (none / 0)

What we did today was vote on our delegates to the state convention. The primary wraps up May 13. Then we have the state convention a month later. Those delegates will vote for delegates to the national convention. The delegates to the national convention will be in proportion to the primary vote results in the three congressional districts. See my update for further details. It's very confusing and as Clem noted the rules look like they didn't expect WV's primary to matter when the rules were adapted. The convention in the past has usually been treated as a reward for party support, etc., with the delegates just voting whoever the nominee is.

In this case, I have to wonder if the Obama delegates overwhelmingly outnumber the Clinton delegates but Clinton wins the popular vote in WV whether the Obama delegates will change rules at the convention? Clinton has said pledged delegates really aren't pledged. That could work against her in this case.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:28:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Damn Yankee (none / 0)

That last line was quite interesting. So Clinton could "win" lots of wavering delegates who could come out for Obama at the state convention? Is this one of those states where the number on May 13 will likely look different than the number in June? Either way, WV has only 28 pledged delegates to the National Convention so we aren't talking about a whole lot of movement either way. I could easily see Hillary winning 18-10 if the delegates go according to the primary, though the 3-3 split is hard to break at the district level.


by elrod on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:37:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

elrod (none / 0)

I don't think anyone here, including Clinton's supporters, see her getting +8. Best case scenario I've seen for her from knowledgable people is +4 and most likely +2.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:51:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: elrod (none / 0)

Even if she wins the state by 30 points? I live in Appalachia (East Tennessee) and I've seen how poorly Obama has done in this region. Are you saying that if he loses by, say, a 65-35 margin that Hillary Clinton would only win the delegate count by 2 or 4? If so, that's remarkable and shows just how screwed Hillary is. Only KY is as favorable for her as WV and I don't think KY has that many more delegates than WV.


by elrod on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 10:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: elrod (none / 0)

Yes elrod, that is exactly the point.  That is why every time you see someone saying: "A win is a win."  when they're talking about PA it is very likely that you have stumbled upon someone who doesn't understand the process.  That's also why this race is, and has been, over.  

Pennsylvania and North Carolina are the 2 biggest states left to vote.  You can see how even a huge win in WV means 4 or maybe even 6 delegates netted for Hilary.  Barack's lead is about 140 delegates right now.  4 or 6 delegates nets are about the max one could expect for even a big winner in the remaining states with the exception of PA and NC.  If Hilary wins PA by say 15% (she won't, but let's pretend like she might) then she would pick up about a 15 to 20 delegate net gain.  North Carolina is shaping up to be a blow out in favor of Obama.  Right now his margin there in twice Hilary's margin in PA.  While PA has a greater number of delegates, a win of such a margin in NC for Barack negates any gains Hilary makes in PA.

That leaves even fewer and much smaller states for Hilary to try and close what is still going to likely be about a 140 delegate gap.  At the point she will have only a hand full of states left in which to compete and the most she can hope to get, even with a blow out, from any of the remaining states will be about 5 or maybe 8 delegates.  Btw, Oregon is an Obama state.  His lead will grow when (if) they vote.  Montana and South Dakota are also likely Obama wins.

When convention time rolls around she will need to get as many of the remaining super delegates as Barack gets plus however many the gap is (presumably between 115 and 150) plus 1, in order to get the nomination.  Pigs might fly out of my butt too.

I got news.  This doesn't even make it to convention.  It was no longer competitive by early February.  


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 01:00:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama winning big in WV county conventions tod (2.00 / 3)

Looks like these folks weren't offended by the "bitter" comments. I bet they recognize that folks ARE pissed out, frustrated and bitter at how they've been ignored by the national government.  


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 07:51:45 PM EST

Yes (2.00 / 1)

That's what I heard from several people and that was my take on it at West Virginia Blue.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:29:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

re (2.00 / 2)

just more proof the party apparatus is out of touch with what the people want. Clinton will beat Obama silly in the WV primary but do these "elites" care? Nope they are hellbent on losing again and feeling good about themselves


by rossinatl on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:00:13 PM EST

Re: re (2.00 / 2)

Right, because the only Democrat that could possibly beat an old nut job like McCain is Hillary.

The only way that is going to be true is if die hard Hillary supporters try and make it true. If you are looking for a group that is more interested in feeling good about themselves than winning that is who you should look towards.

[BTW I am not talking about the rank and file Hillary supporter. I am talking about the doomsayers here at MYDD and in other places who choose to spout the idea that Obama can't win and/or say they would rather see a McCain Presidency than an Obama one.]


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

rossinati (2.00 / 3)

Hahahaha. Good one. Because the activists at the Berkeley County Democratic convention are all elitists and not in touch with the "people."

We were dropped off by our chauffers  at the marbled wall headquarters on North Queen Street - it looks more like the Savoy than a party hq- and then after the convention we went off to drink champagne and eat caviar.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

rossinati (2.00 / 3)

If you were not snarking, your comment shows the up-is-down world some Clinton supporters are living in. These county conventions were open to every independent and registered Democrat in the state. They were advertised by the state party and numerous notices put up about them. Clinton's campaign had every opportunity to rally her supporters to attend. The people who attended were those who are the same people most likely to be out canvassing for whoever the Democratic nominee. These were the PEOPLE, Democrats and independents, actually enthused enough by a candidate to give up a beautiful spring afternoon. Yet you refer to the PEOPLE who attend as "elites." Without us - the volunteers you dismiss as the "party appartus," you know, the people who actually show up and do phonebanking and canvassing, sign waves and voter registration booths, election after election. I wonder how you think you'd win if Senator Clinton should become the nominee without those you are eager to dismiss with your asinine comment. Good luck with that.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 09:53:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: rossinati (none / 0)

Standing O here - great post.


by interestedbystander on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 01:07:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: rossinati (none / 0)

Obama has shown again and again and again that his campaign gets the process of the elections and he is setting up his people accordingly. He has a clear plan to deal with states both favorable and unfavorable to him, and Clinton is evidencing ignorance of the workings of the various state methods, probably because she assumed they wouldn't matter.

That's a big failing of the Clinton campaign.


by MNPundit on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 04:46:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama winning big in WV county conventions tod (2.00 / 1)

Carnacki,

Out of pure curiosity: how will the national delegates be allocated if, say, Clinton wins over 60% of the WV primary vote, but Obama has a majority of the state convention delegates? Is there a scenario by which Obama goes to Denver with more WV delegates despite Clinton's majority in the primary popular vote?


by blueflorida on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:08:18 PM EST

blueflorida (2.00 / 1)

Good question. It depends on many factors, but best case scenario I've read for Clinton is she comes out of WV +4 although most likely scenario is she wins and comes out +2 in number of delegates. If I could go hypothetical, let's say Clinton crushes in WV-02, but Obama wins by 1 vote each in WV-01 and WV-03. Under that possibility, Clinton could win a landslide in the statewide popular vote, but Obama would win more delegates. That's purely hypothetical but not impossible. Please don't make me do the math. I've been drinking.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:36:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: blueflorida (none / 0)

I thought all districts have 6 Delegates? You dont net Delegates with a 1-vote win, as the Dels are split 3-3 then. You have to win with over 58% to get to 4-2.


by micha1976 on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 06:28:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks (none / 0)

Too much whiskey last night.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 11:37:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hey, Carnackles (none / 0)

DCDemocrat here under my guise of Beltway Dem.  Good to see you on the front page!


Our long national nightmare is over.
by Beltway Dem on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 03:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey, Carnackles (2.00 / 1)

Hey DCDemocrat!

I hope you're doing well. I've been meaning to give you a call.


by Carnacki on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:54:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama winning big in WV (2.00 / 3)

Obama's campaign (we're not talking about candidates here) is far superior to Clinton's campaign.  They seems to know every rule and every quirk and every edge in every state.

Clinton wins California, Obama makes moves to ensure he will have committed loyal delegates coming out of the state convention.

Clinton gloats after winning Texas, but the winner of the Texas Two Step is Obama.

Obama wins a bunch of states that Clinton ignores (until the pledged delegate count passes from her to Obama)

I was approached by 5 campaign workers over a one month period in PA to ensure I was registered to vote --- all were Obama campaign workers.  

Now it seems that Obama's campaign (20+ points down) has worked the grassroots to build an edge to in the delegate count coming out of WV

What the heck is Clinton's campaign doing, looking at polls and counting wins&losses.  

Our nominee needs to put every state play; a nominee who can threaten a ground campaign in every State and CD; a nominee who will bring hundreds and thousands of new voters to the polls.

Politics is not a sports, its war.  A win is a win works fine in football and baseball; but we cannot afford a pyrric victory.  I do not want to be looking for a silver lining.

If Clinton pulls this out she'd better offer Obama the VP and anything else he wants cause his campaign staff and their results make hrc'S CAMPAIGN LOOK LIKE A HOMECOMING QUENN CONTEST


by kmwray on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:17:14 PM EST

kmwray (2.00 / 3)

I've been pointing out on West Virginia Blue for months how active the volunteers for Obama have been in the state while the volunteers for Clinton have not been. I do think, however, that the contested primary has actually been good for Obama despite the negative aspects. For one thing, the Obama campaign has paid staff already working in the state coordinating with grassroots volunteers who have been at it for months. Compared to 2004, that's a big advantage when we didn't see a paid person in the state until August or September and there was not as much of a volunteer effort - though some - until June or July because our primary occurred after Kerry had the nomination.

The Clinton campaign hired a media person for the state last week or so, but we've not seen anyone out here.

At a recent Berkeley County Democratic Association meeting, after local candidates made their pitches, Bill Yearout asked if anyone wanted to speak on behalf of either presidential candidate. One Obama volunteer stood up and made a presentation. Bill then asked if any Clinton representative wanted to make a statement. There was silence. He made the call a couple more times, but no one stepped forward.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:43:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Another data point (2.00 / 1)

So I guess West virginia will then (along with Washington and Texas) give us another data point with regards to how representative a caucus-style event of the electorate at large.  This will help further inform us as to the validity of those caucus results in Colorado, Minnesota, etc.


by DaveOinSF on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:18:00 PM EST

Dave (2.00 / 2)

I'm not sure I follow you. The primary voters will still decide how delegates are awarded. Please see Clem's diary or the West Virginia Democrats site for further details.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm aware of that (none / 0)

It's just that we can take these "caucus" results and compare them to the primary results when WV votes in May, similarly to how we can compare the caucus and primary election results in Washington and Texas, to better inform us as to how valid all those low-turnout caucuses are as an indicator of the will of the electorate at large.


by DaveOinSF on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dave (2.00 / 2)

Well it's certainly a sign of enthusiasm for a candidate and the organizational abilities of a candidate.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 09:54:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Enthusiasm perhaps (none / 0)

But not support


by DaveOinSF on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 12:25:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Enthusiasm perhaps (none / 0)

What is interesting is Obama's campaign is investing in the state where the polls show Clinton with a big lead. While the Clinton campaign has hired one person to handle in-state media - and I'm not even sure it's a fulltime person - the Obama campaign has had active volunteers calling people and has opened a state headquarters in Charleston and several regional offices with paid staffers. The money he's investing in the state and the ground work being laid by the staff and volunteers will pay dividends for him in November.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 04:45:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another data point (1.50 / 2)

Listen left coaster.  Don't bag on MN.  We have a still breathing former VP and former democratic nominee for president.  We had until his untimely death the ONLY Senator to vote against the war and by almost all measures MN is a bastion of progressive reasoned thought.

I realize your state hasn't fallen into the ocean yet but just cause we didn't vote for your candidate doesn't give you the right to bag on us.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 12:04:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good lord (none / 0)

I said nothing about Minnesota save the observation that they had a caucus.


by DaveOinSF on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 12:26:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't get this (2.00 / 1)

How the hell does the WV system work? The primary determines how many delegates go to each candidate, but the county conventions determine who those delegates are? WTF. So if Obama gets, like 70% of the county convention delegates and Clinton wins 65% of the primary vote, what does that mean? Does Hillary Clinton send a bunch of pro-Obama delegates to the National Convention? Please explain this. I know the GOP had a similarly weird thing in WV too.


by elrod on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:30:58 PM EST

elrod (2.00 / 1)

Don't get me started on the GOP caucus, which Mitt Romney won, but the McCain supporters engineered a Huckabee win on the second round.

As I understand it, and please follow the WV Dem link or Clem's diary for more details, what we did was pick delegates to our state convention. When the primary votes are counted, each Congressional district will have X number of delegates to divide among the candidates depending on the primary votes. At the state convention, county delegates will vote on who those state delegates will be to go to the national convention.

As Clem noted in his diary, the rules appear to have been written without thought that the WV primary would still matter. It hasn't in a long time and getting picked to go to the national convention has been based more on party loyalty than candidate loyalty in the past.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: elrod (none / 0)

OK. So the issue is whether or not the May 13 delegates are binding or not. If not, they could switch to Obama since they already support him by a large degree. I'm an Obama supporter so I'm glad that Hillary will have trouble getting a bunch of delegates from WV (arguably her best state left). But this system is confusing. And yes, it makes sense that the system was set up when nobody thought the primary would matter.


by elrod on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 10:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: elrod (1.00 / 1)

Not to rag on West Virginians, but your state (along with many others) helps make the case that we need to reform our nominating process before 2012.


Stop the racism. Fight the smears.
by CrazyDrumGuy on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 11:45:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

need for reform (none / 0)

Absolutely. It looks like these rules were prepared with more concern for picking who the delegates are than who they represent.

This is this time since something like 1960 that the W.Va. primary has come close to "counting", so it understandable how that could happen.


Visit West Virginia Blue
by WVaBlue on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:06:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

convoluted system (2.00 / 4)

One good thing about this long primary is that it points out how convoluted the system is in many places.  I wonder if the kids of the people that came up with these systems (WV and TX especially) write for Lost now?


Being Normal is for the Mediocre.
by Doug Tuttle on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 10:35:58 PM EST

Can we win this state? (2.00 / 3)

How do we win this state in the 2008 election? It is a state we should win, and so should have Al Gore and John Kerry. I say this because in the last 50 years, the only GOPers to win this state were Reagan and Nixon, before George W. Bush. Jimmy Carter even carried it in 1980, along with 5 other states, and Dukakis, MICHAEL DUKAKIS carried the state in 1988, and of course, Bill Clinton carried it by huge margins both times. How can we win it in 2008? If Gore had carried it, he'd be the outgoing President most likely. I have heard the NRA hurt us there, but also, as coal is big there, we were perceived as being hostile to coal. What can Barack Obama do to win this state? If he actually does win Virginia, he can just win West Virginia too and be exactly at 270. http://www.270towin.com/


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 12:04:47 AM EST

DiamondJay (2.00 / 1)

In my view, the contested primary will help Obama here because an organization is being built now instead of August for the general election. What I've heard over and over is that personal appearances mean a great deal to West Virginians. The latest "controversy" is actually a message that many West Virginians will identify with. They know they've turned to guns and so-called values issues because they're not being heard on economic issues. But if he wants to win this state in the general election, he's got to make personal appearances because retail politics plays big here.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 12:42:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

what pitfalls can he avoid (none / 0)

that Al Gore and John Kerry didn't? That will be key in this election.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 01:02:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: what pitfalls can he avoid (2.00 / 3)

This isn't 2000 or 2004.  Each election is different. Did Democrats win big in 2006 because they corrected the mistakes of 1994?  No.  The game changed and Democrats played it better.


by Homebrewer on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 01:58:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama winning big in WV county conventions tod (2.00 / 1)

hey, nice pic by ryan.  please say hi to him for me - i knew him through WV 4H many years ago.  go obama!  bert leatherman  


by aleather on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 02:11:36 AM EST

Re: Obama winning big in WV county conventions tod (none / 0)

There seems to be a huge disconnect between what the party activists at the county conventions want and what the broader cross-section of WV voters want.  If the county conventions end up 75/25 Obama and the primary ends up 60/40 Clinton, what does that say about the Dem Party leadership?

And, more importantly, what does that say about November?


by johnnygunn on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 05:00:07 PM EST

Re: Obama winning big in WV county conventions tod (none / 0)

What this seems to be saying is that in spite of all that has happened before, the Clinton campaign seems not to have the orginizational capability to meet the Obama campaign in the trenches.  This does not bode well for any arguement HRC may make as far as electibility.  If they are still stumbling in the primary season, what evidence is there that they will be able to be more effective in the GE.


"You might well think that. I couldn't possibly comment"
by xenontab on Sun Apr 13, 2008 at 08:01:11 PM EST


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