Over the past month, since John McCain secured the Republican nomination, we've seen a Democratic lead in head to head match-ups replaced by a McCain lead or tie nationally as well as on a state by state basis, as you can see from the MyDD Poll Watchers at the top of the page. Many have suggested that this is evidence of longterm damage done to the eventual Democratic nominee but I agree with Chuck Todd, a consistent critic of such arguments, who says that such warnings are overblown.
The first thing McCain needs is for the Democrats to find a nominee. There's a lot of bad conventional wisdom percolating that this drawn out fight is good for McCain. It isn't... [...]Why? A few reasons, not the least of which is finding out where he stands with the voting public.
Currently polls show McCain either narrowly ahead or even with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It is impressive considering how poorly the GOP, and specifically the president, are viewed by the public.
But it is a faux lead. If the de facto Democratic nominee is clear within the next 4-6 weeks, that person will see a poll bounce. And according to GOP pollster Steve Lombardo, it could be one heck of a bounce, like post-convention. He anticipates the Democratic candidate will move up 10 points once the primary race is over.
In short, McCain needs to, as Todd says, "get the bounce out of the way." In addition, the sooner McCain knows the nominee, the sooner he'll know what general election message he'll be running on and where he's going to run it, for depending on McCain's opponent, he'd run two very different races.
He will either be the steady hand in uncertain times vs. Obama, or he'll be the breath of fresh air and openness in a campaign against Clinton. [...]From a message standpoint, those are big differences. It is not easy to advance both, now, at the same time. McCain is trying, but ultimately, being able to refine one line of attack is a must, and that can't happen without a clear opponent.
In addition to message, geographically the battleground will be different depending on who he's running against.
If Clinton is the foe, McCain will be using a target map that looks very similar to the one George Bush pursued in '00 and '04. The emphasis will be on the Midwest and West, as he may be able to pick off a few blue states like Oregon or Wisconsin.
If Obama is the foe, McCain's geographic emphasis is likely to shift East to the Rust Belt, Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular, and even to the Northeast.
Now, this isn't to say that Todd is suggesting that the longer this goes on the better it is for McCain. He concedes that McCain would benefit greatly if the battle for the nomination were to go to the convention and that the sweet spot for the Democratic nominee is to wrap up the nomination in the next 4-6 weeks. But I think Todd's point is an important one. We shouldn't look at McCain's current lead or tie against Obama and Clinton and think the sky is falling; rather we need to keep it in context and to understand that McCain's lead, such as it is, is temporary and is the result of his own bounce at having secured the nomination. As strong as McCain appears right now in the general, we have to remember that while he may be the strongest candidate Republicans could have nominated, that doesn't mean McCain will be immune from the fundamentals that work against a generic Republican in 2008. Far from it. It's just that we won't really know to what extent until we have a nominee.
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