MyDD :: Poblano's Unity Bounce

Poblano's Unity Bounce

by minnesotaryan, Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 08:34:08 PM EST

If you enjoy statistical analysis of elections at all, you really need to check out Poblano's site. The links below are a look at what he terms as "the Unity Bounce" which either candidate could earn after we have a nominee. I obviously take no credit for this, or even for finding this (it's on Politico, DK, and of course Poblano's statistically oriented blog is no slouch), but I didn't see it here yet. It's really cool and it makes me really excited about November. Also reminds me how powerful we (democrats) will be if we can work together.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/c lintons-unity-bounce.html

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/c ontemplating-unity-bounce.html

Tags: general, statistics, awesome (all tags)

Permalink :: 7 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Poblano's Unity Bounce (none / 0)

Haven't you noticed?!? There's a SCANDAL going on! Your diary won't get much play, unfortunately.

But thanks for the links.

by amiches on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 08:37:58 PM EST

Re: Poblano's Unity Bounce (none / 0)

Yeah, and I'll hop over to those in the minute. Gotta get my laugh on.

John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country

by minnesotaryan on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 08:54:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poblano's Unity Bounce (none / 0)

Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting.

But, unfortunately, people aren't in a "working together" mood, right now.

Sorry to say it, but it's true.

Hopefully that will change.

No way. No how. No McCain.

by freedom78 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 08:42:45 PM EST

Re: Poblano's Unity Bounce (none / 0)

Psh, I know. I could care less. I only come to this blog to have fun anyway (no disrespect to Jonathan, Todd, and Jerome, but there isn't much by way of interesting analysis in the diaries posted by we lowly users on this blog).

Of course, what mydd lacks in information and analysis, we really make up for in humor. Some of these Better Dead than Obama diary writers really crack me up. I'm sure we all know them :-)

John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country

by minnesotaryan on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 08:53:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poblano's Unity Bounce (none / 0)

Ain't that the truth!

No way. No how. No McCain.

by freedom78 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 08:54:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poblano's Unity Bounce (none / 0)

Hey seriously though, Poblano's analysis is based on the idea that only half of those 28% come back to Obama. I certainly think we can do better, but even looking at the map without them, all Obama needs to do is get a state like Wisconsin. I live in WI now (despite the name) and while a lot of the students are a little flakey, they're Obama-crazy in the best sense of the word. I would be shocked if he didn't win here even with a much smaller bounce.

John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country

by minnesotaryan on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 08:58:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poblano's Unity Bounce (none / 0)

Yeah, it's good info. I think Wisconsin will go blue, regardless. People are assuming a lot of McCain, and that his war-hero persona will be enough. But all that 9/11 stuff wasn't enough for Rudy and Mr. "I'm not an expert on this stuff" will have trouble selling his particular brand of snake oil, this year.

No way. No how. No McCain.

by freedom78 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 09:03:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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