MyDD :: A Real Tossup in Alaska

A Real Tossup in Alaska

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 03:28:50 PM EST

In a difficult year for Republicans, Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is providing GOP leaders with yet another headache.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Stevens is essentially even with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Stevens currently attracts 46% of the vote while Begich earns 45%. Four percent (4%) say they'd vote for a third party option while 5% are not sure.

[...]

Normally, a long-serving incumbent can count on unified support from his own party while picking up some support from the opposing party. However, Stevens is supported by just 71% of GOP voters while Begich attracts 78% of Democrats. Begich leads by 22 percentage points among unaffiliated voters.

Stevens is viewed favorably by 50% of the state's voters while 47% have an unfavorable opinion. Begich earns favorable reviews from 56% while just 35% have an unfavorable opinion.

Among unaffiliated voters, Begich is viewed favorably by 66%, Stevens by 42%.

Here, again, is one of those races that the Republicans just shouldn't have to worry about. Alaska voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, no Democrat has won a House election in the state since 1972, and no Democrat has won a Senate election in the state since 1974 (which was a pretty good year nationally for the Democrats).

However, the map is expanding for the Democrats, on the presidential level, on the congressional level and on the Senate level. And specifically in Alaska, where there are serious questions about the propriety (or impropriety) of Senator Ted Stevens (the longest serving Republican in the history of the chamber), the Democrats have a real shot of victory.

If you want to expand the map by helping out Mark Begich, who as you can see is very popular and has a legitimate shot at victory this year, head over to his campaign website or his Act Blue page and get involved today.

Tags: AK-Sen, Senate 2008, Alaska (all tags)

Permalink :: 22 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

If we could take out Stevens, that would honestly be amazing.

I, for one, suggest an ad campaign based on his "series of tubes" speech. You don't have to be a computer geek to realize how out-of-touch this guy is, and also realize that he has no business regulating anything that he doesn't understand. Add that in with his bridge to nowhere (that may or not play with Alaskans) and his stance on logging that would require the Forest Service to reconstruct the roads, and I think we've got a winner.

Disagree without being disagreeable.

by thatpurplestuff on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 03:34:22 PM EST

I'll Disagree (without being disagreeable) (2.00 / 1)

First of all, yay Alaska! This could be the year to give "Uncle Ted", as we call him up here, a run for his money.
However, I don't think the two issues you bring up would have much traction to Alaska voters. The fact that Ted is ignorant regarding the internet would be seen as part of Ted's charming side. (ya know, the folks that believe ignorance is a virtue). And the "bridge to nowhere" was a lot more popular up here than down there in the lower 48.

But, Stevens is very vulnerable on political corruption. Both Ted and his son Ben have been subjects of several federal corruption investigations. I won't go into the grimy details, but a lot of even right wing Alaskans have been noticing a stink on Ted in the past year or so and they don't like that.

Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie

by toyomama on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 03:49:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll Disagree (without being disagreeable) (2.00 / 1)

I concede the issue to you, as the only stuff I know of Stevens are the few things I've read about him on the net and seen on the news. I think you're right about the bridge to nowhere being a dead issue, since it would be hard to get people outraged over federal money coming IN to their state. The only idea I can think of is to contrast that with maybe some of the pork that he's approved for other states in order to get pork to his own state... maybe try to draw up some cost/benefit analogies among the electorate and see exactly how much of Alaskan federal tax dollars Stevens is willing to give away to pork in other states. Just my 2 cents, and probably not all that helpful... haha

Regardless, I'm sure we've got political gurus 1,000,000x wiser than myself looking at Stevens' weaknesses. :)

Disagree without being disagreeable.

by thatpurplestuff on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 03:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

Begich will bag more than 78% of Democrats when its all said and done, so if he can maintain that whopping lead with independents, he'll win.
I've always felt good about the race because Stevens is SO ridiculously out of touch and corrupt. Also, Begich is a great candidate, and if we have Obama atop the ticket actually competing in Alaska, everything will look even better.

by AC4508 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 03:40:36 PM EST

don't mean to rain on your parade (2.00 / 1)

but it seems like AK is for us what NJ is for the GOP. All year long, polls show we're right in there, but then the voters revert back to the party they are comfortable with.

AK voters may dislike their Republicans in the same way NJ voters dislike their Democrats--not enough to vote in the other party.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 03:59:30 PM EST

Except (2.00 / 1)

It doesn't really cost anything to advertise in Alaska while New Jersey is about the most expensive place to advertise in the country.

My Direct Democracy

by Jonathan Singer on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:03:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Campaigning in Alaska (2.00 / 1)

You're right about the cost of advertising being cheaper, but campaigning up here is very retail. A candidate has to attend lots of potluck dinners in the smaller communities. And traveling to the 'bush' communities means 100% air travel, and that's very expensive.

Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie

by toyomama on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:18:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: don't mean to rain on your parade (none / 0)

To a certain extent, rather than re-electing their (knowingly) bad representatives, like governor Murkowski, they kick them out in the primary and run someone who currently has a 90% approval rating. Not exactly a good recipe for success... I doubt that the Republicans will be able to pull a Palin, probably more like a Padgett.

by KainIIIC on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:36:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: don't mean to rain on your parade (none / 0)

I agree. It does seem like there are a couple of states on each side that flirt with getting rid of a D or R, but the state seems to revert back to their "comfort" zone in the end.

However, historically, we know that eventually ends. Think of Texas, where (D) was the thing to be not that long ago. But, yeah, I cannot envision Stevens losing, but I will be sending Begich money if I think it is possible!

by reggie44pride on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:52:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (2.00 / 1)

The key is who Democrats nominate for President. If Democrats nominate Obama, they will probably have a better than 50/50 shot of picking up the seat. Obama only trails McCain by five points in Alaska and Clinton trails by 25. If Clinton is the nominee, Begich may as well pull out of the race.

by Toddwell on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:34:33 PM EST

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

Based on the huge turnout for Obama at the Anchorage Democratic caucus, I think you're correct.
Begich would have a much better chance campaigning as part of the Obama slate rather than the Hillary slate.

Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie

by toyomama on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:51:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

As much as I want that old lunatic out of the Senate, I cannot really believe that he's in real danger of losing. I remember a similar hope that Knowles would beat Murkowski...

It's hard to envision that Alaska ever had Gravel as a Senator!

by reggie44pride on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:49:16 PM EST

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

Gravel won his Senate seat back in the good old days, before the trans Alaskan Pipeline was built. Our entire Congressional delegation was Democratic.
And Gravel knocked off Ernest Gruening in the primary, one of the only 2 US Senators to vote against the Gulf of Tonkin resolution. Gravel ran as a hawk against Gruening then morphed into a dove as Senator.

Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie

by toyomama on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

The reason Murkowski won in 2004 was because John Kerry lost by 25 points in Alaska. If Knowles was running with Obama and Obama lost by only five or six points, Knowles would have been a Senator today.

by Toddwell on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:58:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

Absolutely right on. We cant abandon Alaska on the Presidential level and then hope for any success from the downballot races. If Obama can even keep Alaska competitive, it gives Begich and Berkowtiz a much, much better chance at winning here.

by AC4508 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 06:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I wonder what Palin will do. (none / 0)

I have a hard time believing that she's going to work hard to keep Stevens; he's more corrupt than the guy she replaced.

We need more Republicans like Sarah Palin. They should actually compete honestly for the moderate vote.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:51:53 PM EST

Re: I wonder what Palin will do. (none / 0)

I agree with the sentiment that we need moderate Republicans. I have consistently told friends and colleagues that I think electing moderate Republicans is just as important as getting Democrats elected, at least in some states. In some places, you may never get a Democrat elected, but it would be great to get a sane (read, not either of the OK Senators) Republican in there.

by reggie44pride on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:54:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

"I agree with the sentiment that we need moderate Republicans."
We need more Dems...we don't need any Republicans.
Every district...every State..Howard Dean.

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 05:18:15 PM EST

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

Would be pretty sweet to dump Senator Tubes. There would be a celebration among nerds nationwide.

by Skaje on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 06:55:32 PM EST

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

Big thanks to Jonathan Singer for showcasing the world outside the Dem. primary. Finally.

In any regards, here's hoping to a successful 2008.

by alex100 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 07:38:04 PM EST

Re: A Real Tossup in Alaska (none / 0)

Don't get your hopes up. Unless Ted is indicted, he's safe! He's godlike in Alaska

by WAREHOUSE553 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 10:25:38 PM EST

This is nonsense (none / 0)

Alaska is an extremely difficult state to poll, and the polling invariably overstates Democratic support. desmoinesdem and others have already mentioned that.

I discovered it nearly a decade ago and it's been profitable. Tony Knowles virtually never matched his poll numbers. In '04 he led literally every poll for a year vs. Lisa Murkowski, then was routinely dismissed on election night. The earliest tally went severely for Murkowski and nothing changed all night. Knowles was favored.

In '04, Fran Ulmer polled close to the elder Murkowski in infrequent polling, then was avalanched.

In '06 Intrade actually had the Democratic ticket a substantial favorite to win the gov race at one point. I jumped all over that, since it looked like Palin and not Murkowski would claim the GOP primary.

I can't look at any Alaska statewide poll without applying a PAN (Partisan Adjustment Number) of at least 4 red.

by Gary Kilbride on Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 01:55:56 AM EST

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