Wow, look at McCain go! The media's favorite maverick has bounced to a tie with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in their latest general election match-up. And The AP's Nedra Pickler can hardly contain her excitement.
Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama's 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday.The survey showed the extended Democratic primary campaign creating divisions among supporters of Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee.
McCain is benefiting from a bounce since he clinched the GOP nomination a month ago.
And what a bounce it is. McCain has the nomination locked up and is arguably at his peak right now and all he can eke out in a general election match-up is a tie. Gotta love it. But what is interesting is where McCain has seen his biggest gains.
The four-term Arizona senator has moved up in matchups with each of the Democratic candidates, particularly Obama.An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.
Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent.
This does go against the grain a bit, as most polls show Obama performing better against McCain than Clinton does, although Clinton has been closing that gap lately. RCP now lists Obama's average margin against McCain at +.6% while Clinton is close at -1.6%. According to the AP analysis of the poll, Obama has lost ground among most constituencies, many of whom are likely to come home to him in the end such as voters under 35, independents and high income households. There's one demographic where Obama has lost ground to McCain that could be more of a longterm concern:
Against McCain, Obama lost ground among women -- from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April. Obama dropped 12 points among women under 45, 14 points among suburban women and 15 points among married women.
I was speaking to a very smart woman last night about the bitterness many women are likely to feel toward Barack Obama if he wins the nomination over Hillary Clinton. Her prescription in that event, which I think also amounted to a prediction, was for Obama to pick a female VP candidate, although she thinks the VP choice would be much more likely to be a governor than the senator from New York herself. While I personally haven't given up on the whole dream ticket thing, I do think she might be onto something.
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