Internal polling from both the Republicans and the Democrats shows that Democrat Don Cazayoux leads Republican Woody Jenkins in a head-to-head matchup one month out from the special election in Louisiana's sixth congressional district. In light of these numbers, as well as other factors, the Cook Political Report has done something rather astonishing: Rated this contest, which takes place in a district that tends to lean about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole (or at least did before Hurricane Katrina hit), as "leans Democrat." David Wasserman's fine analysis is behind a subscription wall, but I will pass this insightful graf along:

As in the recent race in Illinois's 14 th CD, the district's GOP lean - it has a PVI of R+7 - is Republicans' last best hope of saving the seat. The fact that the GOP is attempting to hold its own turf will also keep pressure on the NRCC to spend resources here in the coming weeks, even if some insiders increasingly view it as a lost cause. Indeed, the only good news for Republicans may be that advertising in the Baton Rouge market costs about a tenth of what it costs in Chicago.

If you want to help keep the pressure on the National Republican Congressional Committee at a time that House Republicans really can't afford it -- the NRCC has a net $34 million less in the bank than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- head over to Cazayoux's campaign site or Act Blue page to get involved.

Update [2008-4-10 18:0:22 by Jonathan Singer]: By the way, you can follow this race, and much more, over at The Daily Kingfish.