MyDD :: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 Points

Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 Points

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:11:31 AM EST

Puerto Rico is the last large primary ahead of the Democratic National Convention, and we now finally have some numbers on the race in the ~~state~~ commonwealth (whoops!). The survey, commissioned by El Nuevo Dia from pollster Research & Research, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points (though I can't quite figure out if the sample is of adults, registered voters or likely voters).

Hillary Clinton: 50 percent
Barack Obama: 37 percent

Although Puerto Rico is late in the process, and the race won't even necessarily still be going on by early June (though I have a hunch that it will), given that 55 pledged delegates will be up for grabs in its primary, the largest amount of any of the contests to be held in June, it could play an outsized role in setting expectations and momentum in the early summer -- a key period in which superdelegates should finally be making their decisions leading into the convention. As such, this will definitely be a race to keep an eye on.

Tags: Puerto Rico Primary, Democratic Primaries, Puerto Rico (all tags)

Permalink :: 36 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Hey Jonathan can you look into the diary ,

Girly men that support Hillary Clinton , the poster of the diary admits he/she is from redstate and he/she is not a democrat.

It is a pretty disturbing diary filled with sexist , homophobic language.

Nearly all commenters are disgusted and waiting for administrators to do something about it.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:17:24 AM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Jonathon,

I practically never agree with lori. She's right this time.

It's disturbing.

I'll let you decide whether I mean the diary or that I find myself in agreement with lori.

That last part was meant as a good natured joke, btw.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:40:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Could you also take a look at DTaylor's latest - Obama supporters are forces of evil rant? Thanks.

by interestedbystander on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 01:19:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Winner Take All? (none / 0)

Did I read somewhere that PR is winner-take-all? If so, it would add even more weight to its significance. I saw that WJC was their recently...

We don't need a thinker. We need a doer: someone who'll act without considering the consequences. (H.J. Simpson)

by Newcomer on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:17:26 AM EST

Re: Winner Take All? (2.00 / 1)

Puerto Rico is not winner-take-all.

Some observers have mistakenly believed that it was, given that its late date in previous primary seasons has caused the preponderance of its delegates to go to the presumed nominee in the past.

DNC delegate selection rules do not allow for winner-take-all primaries.

by Onward Virginia Democrats on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:39:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Winner Take All? (none / 0)

Thanks - I knew I had seen that repeated...but always figured that much, much more would have been made about PR if one candidate could get all 55 with a 51% victory...

We don't need a thinker. We need a doer: someone who'll act without considering the consequences. (H.J. Simpson)

by Newcomer on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:57:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The State???? (2.00 / 1)

Perdona me, pero - -

The last I heard, Puerto Rico was a Commonwealth - NOT a state.

by johnnygunn on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:32:28 AM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

I really have a hard time believing that the Dem. party would let Puerto Rico be definitive.

But, I suppose, crazier things have happened.

by DeskHack on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:41:46 AM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Ha, ha ha - So You think that if Hillary draws even with Obama in the pledged delegate count ( which she can't)and the popular vote ( which she can't unless you don't give Obama any votes from MI and no caucus votes) - the superdelegates are going to decide this thing based upon what Puerto Rico does - which last I checked has no electoral votes in the GE? We might as well dissolve the Democratic Party now - if you really think that's going to happen.

by CB Todd on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:46:55 AM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

If you count all 50 states as voted Hillary looks like she will win both pledged delegates and popular vote...

by DTaylor on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:55:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

You're correct. Puerto Rico's had multiple referenda on the issue over the years, and the status quo consistently beats both statehood and independence.

by Rorgg on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:04:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually (none / 0)

A Georgetown Professor just did research and found that if all the states were primaries, Obama would be ahead by over 1 million votes.

by regina1983 on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:08:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Yes, also if you count Neptune and Uranus.

by danfromny on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida and Michigan don't count (none / 0)

I think you can make at least a mediocre argument that Florida at least represents the likely outcome of a revote done today (or when it was supposed to be originally done). Obama would not do much better than he did back when they voted (January?), and Hillary didn't really "cheat" by appearing there a few times. It's a bad precedent not to punish them for breaking the rules because then every state will be tempted to do the same and we will have states voting a year before the convention. However, I don't think the vote results from the original Florida vote are fundamentally wrong or skewed (at least not by much). Obama would not suddenly win that state if it revoted.

However, there is no way to make any argument that Michigan represents a fair count. Obama and Edwards were not on the ballot. You can not argue that zero Obama supporters voted for Hillary because there was no other choice (you were not even allowed to write in Obama). And you also can't argue that none of the uncommitteds were Edwards supporters. There is no way to argue that Michigan was in any way a fair vote. Now, I don't think Obama would necessarily win that state if it was done at the fair and correct time, but he would not lose by 20 points either.

That being said, I think Obama is missing an opportunity. He could/should allow Florida to count as is (but only as half the original number of delegates as punishment) in exchange for splitting Michigan 50/50 (and with only half the total number of delegates counting as punishment). Maybe Hillary/the DNC would not agree, but at least Obama could say he tried.

By the way, even if you gave Hillary the delegates from Michigan that voted for her and Obama the uncommitteds, she only picks up an 18 point gain in delegates and 100,000 in popular votes. Then count Florida and she gets a net gain of another 38 delegates and 300,000 votes. Even with this, the most unfair way to count the two states, she is still losing to Obama by 106 pledged delegates and 427,000 popular votes. Closer, yes. Tied, no. And that's with counting it in the most unfair way possible (unless you want to say Obama doesn't get the uncommitteds from Michigan, which I think is ludicrous).

by ProgressiveDL on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:03:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida and Michigan don't count (none / 0)

I will never in my lifetime vote for a candidate that won by having states votes thrown out.

Its not an Obama thing..Its a democracy thing.

by DTaylor on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 04:12:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Huh? (none / 0)

I'm not exactly sure what you are referring to. The Democratic Parties in each state are the ones that chose to violate the rules. I don't know how you can fault Obama for not supporting seating delegates from seriously flawed elections. Yes, he should support a revote in both states, but neither state agreed to it, so that's a moot point. But even if the state agreed to it, there was a serious problem:

"Ten wealthy Democrats have offered to pay for a new presidential primary in Michigan -- all with ties to Hillary Rodham Clinton."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/el ection2008/2008-03-19-michigan_N.htm

No, I don't think it was a big plan to somehow "steal" a revote for Hillary, but why would Obama support such a plan, backed by Hillary's 10 wealthy supporters? Does that make sense to anyone?

by ProgressiveDL on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 04:52:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good News for Obama (none / 0)

This is about as good a first poll as I could have hoped for. In fact, down 13 is much less than Obama was down in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania 7-8 weeks out, and Obama typically closes the margin in the weeks leading up to the vote. Obama just needs to keep it somewhat close in Puerto Rico to maintain an overall vote lead.

John McCain vows to overturn Roe

by soccerandpolitics on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:51:54 AM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (2.00 / 1)

Wouldn't it be great if Puerto Rico put somebody over the top?

I think statehood (if they want it) is way overdue.

by Drummond on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:55:11 AM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (2.00 / 1)

I don't think they do. Can someone confirm?

by reggie44pride on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:59:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Odd that an entity with no electoral votes could have an impact on the nomination.

by KTinOhio on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:02:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Perhaps then -
The problem is less with the nomination and more with the electoral college??

The same situation prevails with American citizens who live in the Virgin Islands, Guam, and the Northern Marianas - as well as American nationals in American Samoa.

by johnnygunn on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:42:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

This is an excellent point. I think the idea of PR having significance in terms of momentum is ridiculous. The superdelegates are not going to be swayed by the "momentum" of winning a victory in a place with no votes in the general elections, no votes in Congress, no votes anywhere but the primary.

I just flipped off President George, I'm going to Disneyland

by alvernon on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 01:16:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diga me, por favor - (none / 0)

Why do so many Americans think that Puerto Ricans want to become a state?
They don't.
Statehood has lost every vote -
Even though the statehood advocates have always used their powers to sway the vote - wording of the referendum, promotional advertising, etc.

I grew up there.

by johnnygunn on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:06:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diga me, por favor - (none / 0)

Statehood has been narrowing losing every vote to continued Commonwealth status. But statehood has been vastly outnumbering the independence option.

If commonwealth status was taken off the table as a possibility, I'm guessing that the supporters of statehood would continue to far outnumber the supporters of independence.

by Aris Katsaris on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:36:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 (none / 0)

This is a fascinating result, I think. Given that Obama has never visited the island (yet) and has no staff or offices there (so far as I know), being down by only 13 points should be pretty encouraging for him--especially given the name recognition of the Clintons and the visit of Bill last week. The Clintons are looking for a major blow-out in PR, and this poll suggests it might not happen.

I'd be curious to know (from someone who can translate the article) what the cross-tabs or internals are.

by reggie44pride on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:58:53 AM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Jonathan what is the source for your hunch that the race will still be going in June?

by wasder on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:12:12 PM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll (none / 0)

I think it's great that this contest ends in Puerto Rico. I can't think of a better setting for the two candidates to sit down together and figure out how the loser is going to help the winner take the White House.

Whether it is Clinton or Obama, one will need the other in order to win in November, just as we the voters will need each other in order to rid this country of Republican rule.

Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.

by SFValues on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:19:29 PM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Only 13?! Wow, I suspected that PR would be the one place that Clinton would really sweep. This certainly bodes poorly for Clinton if this race continues on as she needs MUCH more then a 13 point win in well, every state left really.

Vote Change in '08!

by iowa dem on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:41:00 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

If Obama is the perceived Democratic Frontrunner shouldn't he be winning the rest of the remaining primaries?

by karajan72 on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:53:35 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

Uhh... demographics still matter. The front runner does not mean that he has every single place locked up, but rather that he has a considerably higher chance of winning the Clinton. Besides, 13 points in PR means just a handful of delegates, not NEARLY enough to even dent Obama delegate lead.

Vote Change in '08!

by iowa dem on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:57:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Perceived frontrunner? By which metric is he not leading?

Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.

by SFValues on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:57:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Huckabee had literally no chance of winning the GOP nomination, and was still winning state. There's always the last holdouts willing to support their candidate till the end.

by BlacknBlue on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 01:02:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

PR polling (none / 0)

I don't want to be too snarky here, but how does a win in PR help the candidate making the case that they carried the Big States and have the best Electoral prospects in the GE? The candidate who has already diminished states like ND, AK, HI, etc. because they won't be relevant in the fall? At least those are actual states with a voice in November, PR has absolutely no bearing on the outcome of the GE. In many respects, it makes perfect sense to put PR at the very end of the primary/caucus cycle, to minimize the impact of their delegates; it would be difficult to envision a scenario where their vote is determinative of the nominee.

Again, I'm just trying to understand the argument on this.

by Ray in AK on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 01:27:13 PM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Wonder who PIP will turn out for?(Puerto Rican Independence Party)Can't think of a more focal way to expand their message than a massive rally(s) when HRC and Obama visit.

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 01:33:59 PM EST

Re: Baseline (none / 0)

Um, given Clinton logic about "red states not countin since will never win Idaho" shouldn't PR be even less valuable I mean Obama could win Idaho in a sense I mean it is phyiscally possible (less than 1% chance but still possible), while PR Is quite literally worthless in the general, its like Guam, the AVIs and Dems Abroad (though Dems Abroad generally vote absentee to their previous state of residence I believe, much like soldiers).

by Socraticsilence on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:53:13 PM EST

Re: Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 P (none / 0)

Oh - And be sure to ask Bill how important his pardon of the Puerto Rican FALN members was to Hillary's winning her senate seat in New York.

- Answer: very important to get the Puerto Rican vote.

Then ask - whether we will be revisiting all of Bill's presidential pardons prior to the PR primary. Answer - yes we will.

Perhaps, Hillary doesn't want PR to be a big deal after all - The superdelegates might have to consider too much when thinking it all over.

by CB Todd on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:01:11 PM EST

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