MyDD :: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Competitive Race

Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Competitive Race

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:27:24 PM EST

Prior to this week, only one public poll out of the Indiana Democratic primary had been released, a February survey with well over one third of respondents yet undecided. Now SurveyUSA, which has a history of polling in the state, has released its first baseline numbers on the contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the Hoosier state.

Hillary Clinton: 52 percent
Barack Obama: 43 percent

Here's their writeup of the numbers:

Obama leads 3:2 among the youngest voters. Clinton leads 2:1 among the oldest voters. Clinton leads by 21 points among whites. Obama leads by 58 points among blacks. Obama leads in greater Indianapolis. Clinton leads in Northern, Central and Southern Indiana. Clinton leads by 2 among men and by 17 among women. Among voters focused on Iraq, the candidates tie. Among voters focused on the Economy, Clinton leads by 14. Among voters focused on health care, Clinton leads by 10. Clinton leads by 12 among those who describe themselves as Democrats. Republicans and Independents are technically eligible to vote in Indiana's 'open' primary. Obama leads by 26 points among Independents. Clinton leads by 21 among Republicans. Some in talk radio have urged Republicans to vote for Clinton in states where laws permit Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries. It is unclear to what extent this is happening in Indiana. Without the Republican voters, Clinton would still lead, though by 7 instead of 9.

The poll has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points, so Clinton's lead just meets the requirements of statistical significance. In short, it looks like this is going to be a fairly competitive contest, though one in which Clinton probably has at least a marginal advantage over Obama. In the coming weeks leading up to the state's May 6 primary we will hopefully see more polling to see if these numbers and my general hunch about them are indeed correct, however.

Tags: Indiana Primary, Democratic Primaries, 2008, Indiana (all tags)

Permalink :: 58 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (2.00 / 1)

A big win in PA , would change those numbers even more positively for Clinton.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:32:43 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

A big win for Hillary in PA looks less likely with each new poll.

If Obama wins it she might as well stop making a fool of herself and trashing the Clinton brand name.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:54:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

Thats what you think.

Wait and see.

Pennsylvania is going to send a deafening noise to the rest of the nation come April 22nd and it would be women who would be the force behind the message.

A lot of callers I have spoken too on behalf of her campaign in PA, especially the women were upset with the Casey endorsement.

Casey is pretty popular with conservative dems in PA and might help him but I believe the endorsement motivated a lot more women in PA judging by the calls I made.

I could be wrong on all of this but this is the sense I got.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:01:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

"I could be wrong on all of this ...."

Of course.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

how well does Obama have to do? (none / 0)

How well does Obama have to do in PA to convince you that HRC has no chance of getting the nomination?

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: how well does Obama have to do? (none / 0)

He has to keep the margin to under 10 points. Trans: If Clinton does at least as good as Ohio, then the eastern media look at Ohio, PA, NJ, NY, Mass, etc. and get queasy about not going with the person who has the winning there (and in the Southwest, and in the entire Rust Belt and most of Appalachia.) Oh, California. Oh, oh. Michigan and Florida will not go away...because in one form or another, they will be there in the general. As any pro knows.

by christinep on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 09:28:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

A narrow win for Clinton in PA and a big win in NC for Obama could also move those numbers. Looks like IN could be a real key to see whether the race continues into June.

by wasder on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:37:50 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (2.00 / 1)

IN and NC both have their primaries on the same day, so NC's unlikely to be very influential.

by ChrisKaty on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:01:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

whoops! My Bad. You are right on that. IN will only have PA to influence it. Well, I think it is still true that the outcome of IN especially will help determine whether the race continues into June as it is the one state with no clear favorite among the upcoming ones.

by wasder on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:05:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton (none / 0)

Will Hillary get another win just based on repugs?

by Spanky on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:38:22 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

Also, finding it hard to believe that Clinton could lead among republicans by 21% were it not for the Limbaugh effect. Judging by the fact that not including those numbers would only reduce her lead by two points though I would guess that the Limbaugh effect will not be too much of an effect here.

by wasder on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:39:35 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

This could be because Obama has not visited the state, but one time. If he visits the state will his nubers go up like they did in PA? Obama's numbers went up 7 pts in PA in just 3 weeks. If he visits Indiana, will his numbers go up 7 there? I would have to bet that Obama's #s will go up.

by Spanky on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:44:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

Maybe. But Indiana borders Illinois so it is not like they have never seen Obama in the news before. Also Indiana and Illinois almost never vote the same way, unlike Illinois' other border states.

by ineedalife on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is a poor assumption... (none / 0)

If memory serves, only Nothwest Illinois and parts of Michiana get any media via Chicago. Virtually nothing else that I know of in Illinois has a media market that causes a reach of any great size into Indiana.

Indiana's media markets tend to be Chicago, South Bend, Evansville, Louisville (New Albany/Jeffersonville), Cincinnati (southeastern IN), Indianapolis, and Ft. Wayne (maybe influenced by Detroit/Toledo). There are smaller stations such as in Lafayette, but I'm rattling off what I remember to be the ones with the most influence.

by palamedes on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:22:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama will win Indiana (none / 0)

Mark my words. When has he yet to lose a border IL state? Also, the places that he will be strong in can offset any wins by Clinton in the Southern part of the state. He also hasn't started campaigning hard in Indiana yet. This poll is actually bad news for Clinton.

His internals show him winning it by 3%.

by Hopeful08 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:11:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

I think you underestimate the Repubs "crush" on Obama. It quickly left after the Rev. Wright disaster.

by easyE on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

I meant to say "overestimate" their crush on Obama.

by easyE on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:12:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

I think you underestimate the Republican desire to press this race to a convention fight, regardless of who the nominee is.

by noop on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:32:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rise, Hillary! (none / 0)

Rise!

Another Hillary Supporter for Obama!

by Beltway Dem on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:40:40 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

Of course, b/c Republicans only vote for Hillary based on a larger 'strategery' while they support Obama b/c 'it is the right thing to do'. Damn those meddling Republicans. Hey, wait a minute, I know what we should do. Lets just go ahead and extrapolate all of the Republican votes cast thus far from the primary popular vote total based on exit poll data. Oooh,, but hold on a sec., that wouldn't be good at all for Obama would it? Republicans definitely helped him coast to victory in a number of contests thus far, helping him amass his delegate lead despite actual registered Democrats preferring Hillary. Oh, hypocrites, let me count the ways...

by corunner26 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:48:02 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

"Of course, b/c Republicans only vote for Hillary based on a larger 'strategery' while they support Obama b/c 'it is the right thing to do'."

Of course, GOPers weren't voting for Obama because Limbaugh told them to make mischief in the Dem primaries.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:50:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

Actually, it's not hypocritical. Clinton supporters have attacked both caucuses and open primaries. Some have even attacked closed primaries with same-day registration. So, if you are going to hold her to a higher standard, you should do so.

by rfahey22 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:53:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

The real question is how many of the crossover-primary-GOPers are going to vote for Clinton in November, and how many are going to vote for Obama. I bet those numbers are much higher for Obama than they are for Hillary.

I don't mind at all if Republicans honestly prefer Obama to McCain and Hillary and support him (as appeared to be the case in February before Limbaugh got involved). In fact, that's great for the Democratic Party! What I do mind is when Republicans vote insincerely in the Democratic Primary to improve their chances in November. It's just a crappy thing to do (and it was a crappy thing to do when Kos encouraged the reverse in MI).

There's no hypocracy there at all -- GOP voters aren't inherently bad. Just the insincere ones are. And it's pretty clear who's getting the insincere votes.

by ChrisKaty on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:06:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

I didn't quite follow your post, but I did read the survey. I hope that every SD reads the survey because it shows that if winning in November is at all a priority, we need to nominate Obama. The Republicans have various motives for how they are participating in the Democratic Primary (some want to cause mischief, some are sincere and we don't know which is which).

Independent voters are much more likely to be sincerely looking for the best President--and 60% say that Obama is the best choice.

We need independent votes to win in November and Obama is they one who can deliver.

by smoker1 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:01:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (2.00 / 1)

This far away from the PA primary, Hillary was up 20-30%. Now it's 5-10%.

For Hillary, May 6 might as well be in the next century.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:48:51 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (2.00 / 1)

If you could demonstrate that there was a concerted effort among republicans to vote for Obama early in the process to derail Clinton I would believe you. Certainly I wouldn't put it past them. But you can't deny that republicans voting for hillary at this point are just doing it to extend our primary season and weaken our nominee. One thing I always appreciated about both Clintons in the 90's was that Republicans hated them. There is just no way now that they prefer her to him by 21% out of the goodness of their heart.

by wasder on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:51:52 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

"If you could demonstrate that there was a concerted effort among republicans to vote for Obama early in the process to derail Clinton I would believe you. Certainly I wouldn't put it past them."

Of course, what makes that laughable is that back then the GOP primaries were competitive. It's makes no sense that Reeps would give up their say in deciding their own nominee just for the fun of playing games with the Dem process.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton press conference: (none / 0)

PHILADELPHIA - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton walked somberly into a press conference Tuesday and stood before microphones. Reporters tensed, sensing something big might be afoot.

"This has been a very hard fought race," she said. "We clearly need to do something so that our party and our people can make the right decision. So, I have a proposal."

The tension grew. Reporters shifted in their seats. Was she dropping out of the race? Offering to join rival Barack Obama as his running mate?

"Today, I am challenging Senator Obama to a bowl-off," Clinton said, provoking relieved laughs from the assembled scribes.

Clinton carried on, making reference to Obama's disastrous outing at a Pennsylvania bowling alley Saturday.

"A bowling night. Right here in Pennsylvania. The winner take all," she went on. "I'll even spot him two frames."

"It is time for his campaign to get out of the gutter and allow all the pins to be counted. I'm prepared to play this game all the way to the tenth frame. When this game is over, the American people will know that when that phone rings at 3 a.m., they'll have a president ready to bowl on day one."

"Let's strike a deal and go bowling for delegates. We don't have a moment to spare, because it's already April Fool's Day. Happy April Fool's Day."

by gotalife on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 04:55:59 PM EST

OK, I admit it... (2.00 / 1)

That's pretty funny.

by KTinOhio on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:08:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton press conference: (none / 0)

I think it'd be good publicity for both of them if they were to do this. Not to mention a great deal of fun.

"I hope that someday we will be able to put away our fears and prejudices and just laugh at people." - Jack Handey

by vcalzone on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Funny -yes. Smart? Not so much (none / 0)

Hillary acknowledges her press conferences make people cringe? Well if you got to go for the queasy laugh, OK....

by bernardpliers on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:39:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

Are there instructions for embedding youtube videos into diaries? Is this something anybody can do, or are there certain users who are given this privilege?

by Quarterbackjoe on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:00:36 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

anybody can do it. when you first do it and enter the diary, just go back in and "edit it" then update (without doing anything) and it will show up

Rise, Hillary, Rise

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:00:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

It is clear she cannot win North Carolina, so I will happily take Indiana.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:08:53 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

A big difference in Obama and Clinton is that it's never been clear he'll lose until the results have been tabulated.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:15:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If Obama wins Indiana (1.00 / 1)

will HRC supporters stop sending her money to rip Obama?

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:11:44 PM EST

Re: If Obama wins Indiana (none / 0)

I really wish she would rip him, but she just doesn't want to win that way. I'll send money regardless.

by souvarine on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:21:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Obama wins Indiana (2.00 / 1)

lol. That's a funny statement.

John McCain believes "Women shouldn't have a choice."

by jturn17 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary Is Just Too GOOD For America (nt) (none / 0)

It'll never elect someone as principled as her.

by bernardpliers on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:36:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not the Crushing Numbers Hillary Needs (none / 0)

Not gonna happen. The kitchen sink has been tossed.

by bernardpliers on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:32:48 PM EST

Re: Not the Crushing Numbers Hillary Needs (none / 0)

You're right- and he's proven to be much better at destroying HIMSELF than she has been at tearing him down... Sad state we're in.

by easyE on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:14:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As expected (none / 0)

Electorate divided along racial lines, as per the Obama campaign's request.

Eyes on the Prize: Hillary 08

by bobbank on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 05:42:34 PM EST

Re: As expected (none / 0)

It also divides along gender lines per HRC's request.

by Hopeful08 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:13:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As expected (2.00 / 1)

It also divides along boxers vs. a thong. What the hell is everyone talking about? Duh- they both use their advantages- he's better with AA, she gets the women. Who wouldn't? McCain will surely try to win the Super-Old White Dumbass vote. Could you blame him?

by easyE on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HUGE news for Hillary! (2.00 / 1)

this is really HUGE news! NC is only place looking good for Mr. Obama. Hillary is going to win the nomination then. I see now in terms of gain of delegates:
PA+36 (may be even 38 or 40), IN+8, WV+8, KY+15 - these 4 states will give Hillary extra 77 delegates.
Obama may gain about 9 in NC (bit I think PA wave will make it much less) and OR can be small gain for her too. It looks like she gain about 67-70 delegates before June and PR looks like another gain of 11 or so delegates. After that MT & SD will be tie or even in favor of Hillary, so she will get 80 or more pledged delegates compare with Obama. Add to this 45 supers gain (very realistic after all above), and she will lead even before FL+MI will be seated (and they will be!). Yes, we will...

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:28:08 PM EST

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

No way Hillary gets +36 from PA. She will probably get a net of about 10.

by Toddwell on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:36:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

i think she will get even +38 or more, sorry

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:39:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

You're basically predicting she hits 65% in all those states. Needless to say, that seems unlikely.

by Skaje on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

ok if you want in percentage - these are my guesses:
PA 61-38
IN 46-53
IN 55-44
WV 63-36
OR 51-48
KY 64-35
PR 60-39
MT 53-46
SD 50-49
but yes, it is just a guess and it can go diff, but not much.
If diff. i may guess in Hillary's favor, except NC, when she can lose much more

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 08:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

I meant to say:
NC 46-53
IN 55-44

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 08:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

The only things you are anywhere near correct on are are KY, WV, and possibly PR. The Clintons are about as popular as the clap in the mountain states like SD and MT, as the Clintons tried to raise grazing fees in the 1990s here. Voters remember that. Oregon is also a state where Progressive Democrats always do better than Republican lite-Democrats.

PA will be more like 53%-46% for Hillary.

by Toddwell on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 08:36:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

Listening to Gov. Schweitzer (Montana) earlier this year, I will be curious to hear Obama's gun control position in Montana. Take a look at Montana's history.

by christinep on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 09:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

Hillary is even worse with gun control. Her husband signed the Brady Bill and assault weapons ban in the 1990's and she is known for being heavily anti-gun.

by Toddwell on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 09:39:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUGE news for Hillary! (none / 0)

Hey, numbers. Let's assume you're right.

Using the Forbes/RCP tracker, that gives Hillary a 318-248 lead among the remaining pledged delegates. In this scenario, the outstanding Add-Ons from completed and upcoming contests split 39-37 Obama, leaving 250 unpledged Supers.

Add on to the existing totals, and we have, before those a pledged total of:
Obama 1663, Clinton 1566
Adding on the committed supers and addons:
Obama 1920, Clinton 1854

Obama would need 105 of the outstanding 250 supers, or 42%, to ratify the overall delegate lead to clinch the nomination.

Clinton would need 171 of the 250, or about 68% of them, to vote to discard the gap of about 100 pledged delegates and overall gap of around 65 to hand the nomination to Clinton instead.

Here's my question: If Clinton can convince over 2/3 of the pledged delegates to support her in those circumstances, why isn't she getting any of them now?

by Rorgg on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:23:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

Indiana is much the same culture as OH, PA, WV, and KY, which are all huge Clinton states right now. I expect this contest will end similarly.

I really hope Clinton knocks it out of the park in PA and can carry that momentum into NC. If NC and OR are each within 5 points, and HR wins by 10-25 like she's expected to in PA, KY, IN, PR, and WV, she'll really have the momentum on her side headed into the convention (not to mention a lead in the popular vote).

Combined with FL and MI, giving Obama the nomination will have the same rub the 2000 election had--this contest needs to be settled amicably, rationally, and with respect for who can win in the fall. The only solution I see is a Clinton/Obama ticket.

No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.

by hornplayer on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 06:56:51 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

As usual, even when she is winning, she is losing. I am so tired of this drumbeat mantra from the media, including television, print, radio and internet. From the drumbeat, you would never know this campaign is basically a dead heat. But that's the point, isn't it? If you say it loud enough, long enough, and over and over and over, you'll make the people believe it. Whether it is true or not. A republican tactic. This is the most insidious aspect of all of this.

by dbs52 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 07:59:04 PM EST

Interesting (none / 0)

I thought the conventional wisdom was Indiana was slightly an Obama state if not a draw.

Definitely positive news for Clinton.

While it is positive now I personally dont see this lead holding up long term. Obama has shown in states where he has trailed that, given time, he closes the gap, as it looks like he is doing in Penn.

One of the problems I see for both candidates going forward is that as the electorate has enough time to see both candidates in advance, elections tend to be closer than blowouts (thats obviously an oversimplification but all things being equal with two good candidates I believe this to be true). There can be some demographic impacts as we see with Penn and NC, but overall to get wide margins is going to be too tough.

I just dont see any 'big' blowouts happening either way. There may be a couple just shy of +10 wins for each, but mostly they will wash. So that means no candidate is realy going to make serious headway on the other.

That said, I do believe if Clinton blows out Obama from here on out, yet still doesnt overtake pledged delegates and/or popular vote, she will have a convincing argument to use with supers. And as we all know, no matter the case, its in the supers hands already as neither candidate will have the necessary pledged delegates in almost any scenario.

But blowouts from here on out are unlikely as per my belief above.

Of course a candidate collapse on either side negates everything I just postulated.

by pattonbt on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 10:32:36 PM EST

Re: Baseline #s from Indiana Show Clinton Up in Co (none / 0)

more good news for Hillary. But I don't think she wins Indiana by more then 3 points. I still expect her to lose it solely based on the two big college towns, Indianapolis and northwest part of the state.

WV will be a blowout of epic proportions. Appalachia abhors Obama more then TalkLeft and MyDD combined. 71-28 clinton.

by alex100 on Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 11:31:54 PM EST

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