Like clockwork, now that Barack Obama has put ads up on the air in PA and has been on the ground in the state, two new polls, which still have Clinton ahead, show a tightening race.
| Candidate | Survey USA 3/29-31 (3/8-10) | Rasmussen 3/31 (3/24) | RCP 5-poll Ave. |
| Clinton | 53 (55) | 47 (49) | 52.0 |
| Obama | 41 (36) | 42 (39) | 37.8 |
According to Survey USA, Obama's net 7 point gain comes from men and those in the urban centers.
The movement in support came almost entirely from men, according to the survey results. Clinton had led by five points but now trails by seven -- a 12-point swing to Obama. [...]In southeast Pennsylvania, which includes Philadelphia and makes up 43 percent of likely Democratic voters, the candidates have traded places: Clinton had been up two points but is now down three. In southwest Pennsylvania, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton had led by 31, but now is at 17, a 14-point swing to Obama.
In other words, the constituencies that have supported Obama throughout this primary season are coming home to him in PA as well. This is a trend, of course, that we've seen play out over and over but can Obama make it stick this time or will he once again raise his own expectations only to lose by double digits? That will largely be the determining factor in whether Obama can sew up this nomination before June or not: can he outperform expectations in a Clinton state?
Right now, there is some good news for Obama in that it appears the shift isn't entirely demographic in nature. According to Rasmussen, Obama's movement may be reflect some national trends trickling down to Pennsylvania. The Rasmussen poll shows that despite Clinton having a 5% lead overall, that voters in PA see Obama as slightly more electable against McCain than Clinton is by a 45-43 margin. Also, Clinton's erroneous Bosnia sniper fire claims still seem to be hurting her.
Forty-seven percent (47%) say they have followed news stories Very Closely about Clinton's Bosnia misstatements. Another 27% have followed those stories Somewhat Closely. Overall, 19% consider that issue to be Very Important in their voting decision. That figure includes 6% of Clinton supporters and 36% of Obama voters.
In the meantime as Obama tries to portray himself as an every man (his man on the street ads, feeding a calf at a fair, bowling...horribly...) Clinton has cast herself as the fighter who won't give up.
"Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing a fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up. And neither do the American people," Clinton said in excerpts of prepared remarks to be given Tuesday to a meeting of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO. [...]"The Republicans aren't going to give up without a fight," Clinton said. "And no matter how beautiful your rhetoric, the Republicans aren't going to turn off their attack machine -- it doesn't have an off-switch."
"But one thing you know about me is that when I say I'll fight for you, I'll fight for you," the New York senator said. "I know what it's like to stumble. I know what it means to get knocked down. But I've never stayed down, and I never will."
Umm, didn't Rocky lose at the end of the first film, Senator?
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