What's their registration deadline to be able to vote by Nov?

that he will be able to shore up enough whites to carry him to the white house. He is doing well with the bowling, and he should keep on the path. He needs to hunt, fish, ride horses, essentially do the things white working people don't think blacks actually do, because the challenge in electing this guy nation wide is that white working people typically do not relate to a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama, and I say this not as a slur, but as a fact. He will need to do this to win Hillary voters. Speaking of the Clintons, he may need Clinton in the general to campaign for him to help him carry many states like this in November. But he has a shot if he comes within 8 of Hillary.

Registrations are Obama supporters...to give credit where credit is due

Here in NC we are seeing a similar impact from the presidential campaigns coming to the state. In my own county of Forsyth (Winston-Salem) we were racking up unprecendented registration gains even before the campaigns came to town. Their efforts are kicking it into high gear.

The other (and I think even more important) point is that it is helping us to build and expand the Democratic Party in the county and in the state. We've never been in better shape.

The recent Pew Research Poll in partisan indentification reflects that with North Carolina having the profile of a swing state instead of a red state. Hopefully by the time the general election rolls around, we'll be deep blue:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-vo ters-identify-as-republicans

An energetic but civil primary contest could pay dividends for years to come. Let's try to make that happen!

Welcome back Jonathan.  Thanks for the uplifting post.

While we are fighting our DEM bubble, this shows real progress on our side of the aisle in a rust belt state like PA. IT gives hope -regardless of our primary's tenor - for November.  ANd - shows  our tent is getting bigger, where folks like a pro-lifer in Casey, and a machine-hack like Rendall show pragmatism and nuance rule the day.  

The new registrations are probably legit new Democrats.  I have reservations about the Republican switches.  A decent percentage of them could be Rush voters or Hillary-hating Republicans voting Dem for a day.

Either way 100,000+ new applications is a good thing.

Fear of unifying the party is overblown. It's not like we'll open an envelope and be shocked to learn it's a two-step process to the White House. Does anyone really believe the interest level and opinion and emotion would threaten current level if this were merely a race between Hillary and Obama? The ultimate prize influences everything and we won't forfeit.

The independents may narrowly prefer our opponent. That's simply reality in a relentlessly partisan era, regardless if we pranced through fields of daisies clutching hands, immediately after Super Tuesday. Particularly if you explore first woman or first black. Margin for error wasn't a consideration in either route.

I'm also baffled at the paranoia at extending this. Our nominee will be remembered and perceived as a winner, someone who withstood a marathon primary battle vs. a talented and qualified opponent. I have no idea how that's supposed to be a negative. It's got some similarities to voting for best picture of the past decade or best athlete of the past decade, etc. Front and center are the most recent, the ones you don't have to scramble to remember. Especially if they had a near-equal challenger. As long as the final theme out of the convention isn't negative, we'll be fine.

There are basically 4 types of general elections:

1. Incumbent with party in power only one term

2. Open race after one party has held office 2 straight terms
   
3. Incumbent or open race after one party has held power 3+ terms
   
4. Open race after one-term incumbent decides not to seek re-election

#4 is basically unheard of. #1 is massive edge to the incumbent party, 9 wins in the past 10, normally by decisive margin. That's the wall we faced in '04, always more unlikely than we dared to understand. #3 is very rare, and what we've trying to avoid in '12, last sample in '92 when Clinton ousted Bush 41. Apparently it's a huge edge to the out party in an itchy electorate. Previous example was '52 when Ike won handily.

But #2 is where we are now. It typically produces the coin flip outcomes in modern American politics -- '60, '68, '76, '00. Only exception was '88 when voters desired a 3rd Reagan term from Bush 41.

The out party won all 4 tight verdicts. But the sample size and margins don't allow me to place complete faith in our situational edge. 60/40 sounds about right.

Notice that family feuds, the heated extended primary battles, are generally within the party with the situational disadvantage. In other words, parties trying to overcome #1 or survive  #2. The only modern (past 50 years) example of a party with the situational edge failing in November after a primary fight was Jimmy Carter in 1980. That was #1 mode, the only instance in the past 100 years in which an incumbent with his party in power only one term was booted. But that result can be linked to inept economy and foreign affairs disaster. In '08, those two factors work for us, not against us, so a primary scuffle shouldn't be implosive.

I totally agree that there are some major upsides to this race continuing and think a lot of people are counting out Hillary prematurely.

The thing that is frustrating to me is that the positives of the race continuing don't have to come with the negatives. If both sides would stop with the personal attacks, we could reap the benefits of registering dems in the remaining states and building infrastructure for the GE, but without both of the democratic candidates taking hits in their disapproval ratings.

We're shooting ourselves in the foot here and countering many of the good things that have been happening. I mean, c'mon, how is a guy who's EMBRACING a president with a 26% approval rating, and who's calling for a 100 year war in Iraq, how is such a guy polling so well against our candidates?

We may never see a better climate for taking over the presidency and making major gains in congress. And we're pissing it away with infighting.

I will restate my opinion that while I think the dem nom process is over, being an Obama mathematician, I have no problem for the race to continue on through the last contest (but hopefully not much longer than that).....as long as the fight remains mostly above the belt.

This trend we see in Penn. is the direct benefit of the prolonged process.  States that normally dont get a chance to voice their opinion now have that chance.

While I may not be totally optimistic that both sides will stay above the belt, Id like to believe its possible.

And while Id like more of a spotlight to be shown on McInsane to show how truly terrible he has become, I will be content for now if that doesnt happen until June.

We've got two better candidates than McInsane and if we showcase them right and keep interest in dems up, its a win win.

Go dems 08!

Looks like Obama's voter drive and bus tour are paying dividends

Polls are closing in PA-

A 5 point gap now in Rasmussen (from ten last time)
A 12 point one in SUSA (from 19 last time)

So, if primary turnout is so high, and registration numbers are up, will this be the case in November?

Will the GOP regain some voters this fall (more than the Limbaugh Democrats)?  

Perhaps we gain seats in Congress, despite a McCain victory.