Several days ago Survey USA released their 50-state polling matching Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton against John McCain. Their polling indicated that currently Obama would receive 280 electoral votes while Hillary would receive 276. While SUSA is by far my favorite pollster because of their relative accuracy, I went ahead and examined results from other state polls available. In addition to the 50 state polls SUSA released, another 37 state polls were conducted recently. I look at data from these polls - including all polls from the last 30 days only (all polls included are therefore done beginning at least two days after the Feb. 5 "Super-Tuesday".)
In this diary I have included data for ALL of the current state polls available - the data from the SUSA 50 has been averaged (when applicable) with the other 37 available polls to help us obtain an even more accurate picture of where things stand. You will notice that for virtually every swing state, at least two polls are available. For several states, more than two are available (three for Iowa, New Jersey, Oregon, Texas, Wisconsin; four for Florida and Ohio; and five for Pennsylvania). All the data used and links are at the bottom of the diary.
When data from all 87 available state polls from the last 30 days is examined, we can see that Barack Obama currently performs significantly better than Hillary Clinton in general election matchups with John McCain. According to this analysis, Obama currently beats McCain by 303 EV to 235 EV while Clinton only gets 224 EV to McCain's 297 EV (with Michigan tied). The only states that Clinton carries but Obama does not carry are Arkansas and West Virginia. On the other hand, the following ten states are ones which Obama carries (in many cases comfortably) but which Hillary loses:
Colorado (average of 2 polls):
Obama 48 - McCain 40
Clinton 38.5 - McCain 48.5
Iowa (average of 3 polls):
Obama 49 - McCain 39.3
Clinton 39.3 - McCain 47.3
Minnesota (average of 2 polls):
Obama 51 - McCain 40
Clinton 44.5 - McCain 45
Nevada (average of 2 polls):
Obama 48 - McCain 39.5
Clinton 40.5 - McCain 49
New Hampshire (average of 2 polls):
Obama 47.5 - McCain 40
Clinton 42 - McCain 45
New Mexico (average of 2 polls):
Obama 47 - McCain 43.5
Clinton 42.5 - McCain 48.5
North Dakota (1 poll available):
Obama 46 - McCain 42
Clinton 35 - McCain 54
Oregon (average of 3 polls):
Obama 48 - McCain 39.7
Clinton 41 - McCain 46.3
Washington (average of 2 polls):
Obama 48 - McCain 41.5
Clinton 42- McCain 47
Wisconsin (average of 3 polls):
Obama 46.7 - McCain 42.3
Clinton 43 - McCain 47.3
Additionally, in the case of Michigan (average of 2 polls), Obama wins against McCain while Hillary ties the Arizona Senator, while in the case of Nebraska (1 poll available), Clinton loses big, while Obama earns 2 out of 5 electoral votes due to that state's unique system of proportional (by Congressional district) electoral vote allocation.
Another significant difference when looking at the average of all 87 available state polls (versus just looking at the SUSA 50) is that Obama does not lose New Jersey and Pennsylvania to McCain. In fact, the average of 5 available Pennsylvania polls shows that Obama performs slightly better than Hillary when matched against McCain in the Keystone State. (It should also be noted that Obama does marginally better against McCain than Hillary does in the state of Ohio, according to an average of the 4 available polls from that state). Last, but not least, is the fact that, according to an average of 4 available state polls, both Democrats lose Florida to John McCain; the Sunshine State may be a tough nut to crack no matter who our nominee is.
One last thought is that, when looking at a map of the most competitive Senate races, we can see that out of the 12 states in that category, Obama performs better than Hillary in the general in 10 of them (Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota and Virginia) while Hillary does better in only 2 (Louisiana and Mississippi). In many cases, the difference between how Obama does against McCain and how Hillary does may be the deciding factor in the Senate race. Obama simply may have much greater coattails. The difference in some of these states is amazing -- in particular: Alaska -- Obama performs 17 points better than Clinton, Colorado (Obama better by 18 points), Minnesota (11.5 points), Nebraska (24 points), New Hampshire (10.5 points) and Oregon (13.7 points).
Alabama:
Alaska:
Arizona:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=83fb6646-82ae-4875-a6b0-02f5f3
b6d439%20
Obama 39 - McCain 51
Clinton 39 - McCain 54
Arizona average:
Obama 38.5 - McCain 50
Clinton 36 - McCain 55.5
Arkansas:
California:
Colorado:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=0ccaa21f-6b0d-43ad-be26-29f8a9
98f6b1%20
Obama 50 - McCain 41
Clinton 42 - McCain 48
Colorado average:
Obama 48 - McCain 40
Clinton 38.5 - McCain 48.5
Connecticut:
Delaware:
Florida:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte
nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden
tial_election/florida/florida_2008_presi
dential_election
Obama 37 - McCain 53
Clinton 43 - McCain 49
http://www.wesh.com/news/15439605/detail
.html
Obama 37 - McCain 47
Clinton 40 - McCain 49
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=a15d70fd-c3c6-43b6-9491-4211b8
a759ba%20
Obama 45 - McCain 47
Clinton 51 - McCain 42
Florida average:
Obama 39.5 - McCain 47
Clinton 44 - McCain 46
Georgia:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=a9ab982e-4600-4e42-b734-e1104d
d77600%20
Obama 41 - McCain 54
Clinton 35 - McCain 56
Georgia average:
Obama 40.5 - McCain 51
Clinton 37.5 - McCain 51.5
Hawaii:
Idaho:
Illinois:
Indiana:
Iowa:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pb
cs.dll/article?AID=/20080224/NEWS09/8022
40333
Obama 53 - McCain 36
Clinton 40 - McCain 49
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=d311f039-e374-495c-8753-6178e2
214c6d%20
Obama 50 - McCain 41
Clinton 41 - McCain 46
Iowa average:
Obama 49 - McCain 39.3
Clinton 39.3 - McCain 47.3
Kansas:
Kentucky:
Louisiana:
Maine:
Maryland:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=a4b23768-54b2-491f-a26f-26c3aa
dba6b4%20
Obama 53 - McCain 40
Clinton 49 - McCain 40
Maryland average:
Obama 52 - McCain 38.5
Clinton 48 - McCain 40
Massachusetts:
Michigan:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=a2dfde8a-3546-4e73-b6e3-1bf853
4dd899%20
Obama 46 - McCain 45
Clinton 44 - McCain 44
Michigan average:
Obama 46.5 - McCain 42
Clinton 44 - McCain 44
Minnesota:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=d1c7131a-2fc6-44c8-a679-763d6e
39dd47%20
Obama 49 - McCain 42
Clinton 47 - McCain 43
Minnesota average:
Obama 51 - McCain 40
Clinton 44.5 - McCain 45
Mississippi:
Missouri:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=9a499429-a388-4e22-99fb-e668dc
c23958%20
Obama 42 - McCain 48
Clinton 44 - McCain 48
Missouri average:
Obama 41 - McCain 45
Clinton 43 - McCain 45.5
Montana:
Nebraska:
Nevada:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=fa6a9a88-2618-4b00-bba8-d80f44
0adfb5%20
Obama 46 - McCain 41
Clinton 41 - McCain 49
Nevada average:
Obama 48 - McCain 39.5
Clinton 40.5 - McCain 49
New Hampshire:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=a0d8b37e-3f33-4250-80cc-ca0eb5
36c32a%20
Obama 46 - McCain 44
Clinton 41 - McCain 49
New Hampshire average:
Obama 47.5 - McCain 40
Clinton 42 - McCain 45
New Jersey:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c
ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres
idential_election/new_jersey/new_jersey
2008_presidential_election
Obama 43 - McCain 45
Clinton 50 - McCain 39
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=8a0b8355-3392-4524-a701-2c809c
5ae7d2%20
Obama 43 - McCain 43
Clinton 47 - McCain 42
New Jersey average:
Obama 44 - McCain 42.3
Clinton 48 - McCain 40.7
New Mexico:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=9b6ece02-55ea-42a7-a34c-67a0f4
0631d5%20
Obama 50 - McCain 43
Clinton 47 - McCain 47
New Mexico average:
Obama 47 - McCain 43.5
Clinton 42.5 - McCain 48.5
New York:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=fe99284b-1807-4cf7-9cd2-d975bf
bbfd7c%20
Obama 52 - McCain 38
Clinton 55 - McCain 33
New York average:
Obama 49.5 - McCain 39
Clinton 52 - McCain 37.5
North Carolina:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=31246655-dbd3-449c-a0ff-04da37
159c26%20
Obama 45 - McCain 47
Clinton 41 - McCain 49
North Carolina average:
Obama 40.5 - McCain 46.5
Clinton 38.5 - McCain 48.5
North Dakota:
Ohio:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?Rele
aseID=1142
Obama 40 - McCain 42
Clinton 43 - McCain 44
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/pol
itics/blog/2008/02/obama_clinton_strong
for_mccai.html
Obama 48 - McCain 47
Clinton 47 - McCain 51
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=cba94d6c-f1b7-4a85-8ef2-812406
a2c17c%20
Obama 50 - McCain 40
Clinton 50 - McCain 40
Ohio average:
Obama 44.75 - McCain 42.75
Clinton 45.75 - McCain 45.25
Oklahoma:
Oregon:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c
ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres
idential_election/oregon/oregon_2008_pre
sidential_election
Obama 49 - McCain 40
Clinton 42 - McCain 45
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=8bff824c-7f47-40c6-8094-e12d5d
108791%20
Obama 49 - McCain 41
Clinton 43 - McCain 48
Oregon average:
Obama 48 - McCain 39.7
Clinton 41 - McCain 46.3
Pennsylvania:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c
ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres
idential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylva
nia_2008_presidential_election
Obama 49 - McCain 39
Clinton 42 - McCain 44
http://www.presidentelectionpolls.com/20
08/matchups-by-state/pennsylvania.html
(Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll)
Obama 39 - McCain 42
Clinton 42 - McCain 41
http://www.wgal.com/download/2008/0220/1
5357472.pdf
Obama 43 - McCain 44
Clinton 46 - McCain 46
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=491de2e4-9b1b-4369-82af-badf38
3b6d7e%20
Obama 42 - McCain 47
Clinton 47 - McCain 46
Pennsylvania average:
Obama 43 - McCain 42.4
Clinton 44.2 - McCain 43.8
Rhode Island:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=0058db09-8f4a-4585-8ed1-6b1884
1f66f6%20
Obama 53 - McCain 38
Clinton 54 - McCain 37
Rhode Island average:
Obama 47.5 - McCain 34
Clinton 48.5 - McCain 34.5
South Carolina:
South Dakota:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=1527fbf1-b9e6-4e6b-9d27-a02710
4e104e%20
Obama 43 - McCain 47
Clinton 40 - McCain 52
South Dakota average:
Obama 40.5 - McCain 47.5
Clinton 39 - McCain 51
Tennessee:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=8e86f07b-b4f0-4c7d-846e-ba4f02
23f35b%20
Obama 38 - McCain 54
Clinton 46 - McCain 46
Tennesse average:
Obama 37.5 - McCain 53.5
Clinton 43.5 - McCain 45.5
Texas:
http://www.beloblog.com/KVUE_Blogs/polit
icaljunkie/belopollday5.pdf
Obama 42 - McCain 49
Clinton 46 - McCain 50
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=7f824566-3782-4941-89c0-0cf82b
1cc7ba%20
Obama 46 - McCain 47
Clinton 42 - McCain 49
Texas average:
Obama 44 - McCain 49.3
Clinton 43.3 - McCain 51.3
Utah:
Vermont:
Virginia:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=b1483b76-45c3-4a7e-9bee-c5480e
8a850e%20
Obama 47 - McCain 47
Clinton 40 - McCain 50
Virginia average:
Obama 45.5 - McCain 48
Clinton 40.5 - McCain 50.5
Washington:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=09121f95-3b09-42c3-9c71-32e149
4e7e25%20
Obama 52 - McCain 38
Clinton 44 - McCain 46
Washington average:
Obama 48 - McCain 41.5
Clinton 42- McCain 47
West Virginia:
Wisconsin:
http://www.presidentelectionpolls.com/20
08/matchups-by-state/wisconsin.html
(Strategic Vision)
Obama 45 - McCain 44
Clinton 43 - McCain 48
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo
rt.aspx?g=bf75dbfc-1928-4e73-b544-943f39
557381
Obama 51 - McCain 40
Clinton 48 - McCain 44
Wisconsin average:
Obama 46.7 - McCain 42.3
Clinton 43 - McCain 47.3
Wyoming:
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