The 50-State Strategy In Action

As I've written before, like J Ro, I tend to take a rather optimistic view of the potential impact of a somewhat protracted battle for the nomination on the Democratic Party and our chances in the fall. The media, not surprisingly, seems to be taking the opposite frame -- that the ongoing Clinton v. Obama contest is a net plus for John McCain -- for a spin lately.

Earlier today Fox News did its chicken little best blaring the following headline from the bottom of the screen:

While Dems Bicker, John McCain is Fundraising and Focusing On Key States

Less alarmist is this MSNBC.com headline:

As Dems Fight, McCain Vies For Spotlight

Neither headline can be said to be untrue, of course, but the frame each advances is one of bickering (read: divided, petty) Democrats versus a solitary (read: strong, above the fray) McCain.

Framing it this way certainly makes for catchy headlines but it misses a really big part of the story. For example, this article out of Wyoming suggests another way the media might choose to go.

The Wyoming Democratic Party is experiencing a resurgence unlike anything in decades, and that was happening before the candidates' appearances said [WDP spokesman Bill Luckett.]

More than 2,000 people registered recently as Democrats, with 1,300 of those in the three days before the Feb. 22 deadline for eligibility to participate in today's caucuses, he said.

The party is planning for up to 7,000 Democrats to participate in caucuses today, with as many as 900 in Natrona County alone, Luckett said.

Luckett goes on to explain why this is so important regardless of Democrats' chances in Wyoming on the presidential level.

He expects the new interest to extend to more Democrats interested in running for office and supporting those who do, he said.

Gary Trauner of Wilson, who is making a second bid for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat, will have volunteers at the caucuses to recruit more volunteers, Luckett said.

As a result of our candidates' vying for what looks like will ultimately be every single state (plus Puerto Rico and Guam,) we are seeing unprecedented organization, party registration and participation on the part of longtime and new Democrats all over this country. The importance of this for the fall can not be underestimated. This is te 50-state strategy at work.



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Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (2.00 / 2)

Note to whomever: that's why we shouldn't try to insult "red states" that are using this year's primaries to actively grow the party in previously hostile environments.


by rfahey22 on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:30:29 PM EST

I agree with your analysis (2.00 / 3)

as long as the winner is ultimately accepted as legitimate by the supporters of the loser.

Tough primaries are not a bad thing, but I do have concerns about millions of Democrats feeling their candidate was robbed of the nomination, depending on how this turns out.


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by desmoinesdem on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:40:55 PM EST

Re: I agree with your analysis (2.00 / 1)

Excellent Point; we have just as much to lose as we can gain in this.  The DNC, presidential and down ticket candidates all need to tread carefully to minimize backlash from one camp or another.


by ejintx on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:44:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree with your analysis (2.00 / 1)

Exactly. One way thing is to not apply double standards whether they are for Clinton or Obama.


by bruh21 on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:47:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (2.00 / 1)

Obama has already crossed the "50-State Strategy" threshold and his leads clearly reflect it.  

You'll have to ask Sen. Clinton about what her strategy is.  

And to clarify which states matter this week.


"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain and most fools do." - Benjamin Hussein Franklin
by NorthDallasForty on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 12:38:25 AM EST

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (2.00 / 1)

It's been called the "Insult 40 States" strategy. It failed.


by vermontprog on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:33:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (2.00 / 2)

This is the main reason I support Obama.

If he wins the 50 state strategy continues under Dean's leadership. We saw the results last night in Il-14, the RNCC wastes $1M they don't have trying to defend a seat that by all rights should be theirs uncontested and we end up winning by 4%.

Under Clinton, Dean is out and so is the 50 state strategy. Back in comes the DNC with Harold Ford and 50+1. Look at what the $33M in DNC consultants bought Hillary, going from clear favorite to desperately hanging on with no chance to win outright.


by Statsman on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 12:50:01 AM EST

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

Oh, dear Lord, pleas no Harold Ford!  He just endorsed Republican Chris Shays in CT!!!  

You're going to give me nightmares... I'm going to dream about how the state parties will be bankrupt again like in the late 90's...

Oh, please no!  I can't take that again!!!


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 12:54:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

Your comment reminds me of the always brilliant "overrated, overrated..." chant at sporting events. Nothing like diminishing your own accomplishment by asserting the opposition wasn't what it was cracked up to be.

Similarly, I'm amused by Obama supporters who thrill to claim Hillary imploded via inept strategy. That seems to imply Obama actually hasn't accomplished very much.

Anyway, regarding the focus of this thread, going forward in a heated race is pure benefit, IMO. It's like the conventional wisdom goofballs who insisted the Giants playing hard against New England in the meaningless season finale would ruin their postseason chances. How did that work out?


by Gary Kilbride on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 03:12:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

DLC had a time and a place.

No longer.


by Timetheos on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 02:58:36 AM EST

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

I think there are more than 2,000 Democrats in my apartment building in NYC


by maxstar on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 03:41:06 AM EST

The 50-State Strategy is from Kos, Dean and Obama (2.00 / 1)

.... The Clinton's are only playing in 50 states because their "inevitability" and "significant" big states strategy did not give them 50% + 1.

Obama pursued the 50 state strategy, maybe because he had to, but I believe because it fits his vision.

One more point...  It's not just a 50 state strategy, it is also a 435 House district strategy, ala IL-14.  It's how we get to a real governing majority.

Hillary can slash and burn her way to 50% + 1, but that's no way to build a party and no way to build a solid and sustainable governing majority in Congress.


by xtrarich on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:14:12 AM EST

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

The 50 state strategy is very important to us red-state Democrats. Georgia Democrats registered 45,000 voters in 2007.

9% more people voted in Georgia's Democratic primary on February 5 than in the Republican primary. If we could replicate that in November, we'd be golden.


by georgiaka on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 09:06:34 AM EST

50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

This is a HUGE boom to organizing.  In Indiana, an open primary state, GOP races are usually contested and Dems are not.  As a result it is more challenging to identify Dems, because many Dems pick up a GOP ballot to vote against creationists and wingnuts running for county judge.

This time we will get a better list for the Fall.  Plus IF (that is a big IF) the organization done by the prez candidates is used to help down ballots and GOTV it will be huge.


by bakho on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 10:03:03 AM EST

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

Its amazing how many states the Dems can run strong in if we just stop focusing on the 50% +1 strategy and run in all 50 states.

Voters in all 50 states are restless and ready for change in Washington, especially the young.  They have been most affected by the policies of the current administration; social security, lack of jobs, affordability of college, and basic economic issues have worked to make this election very important.

If only we could find a candidate who appeals to red state America and not only put McCain on the defense but also give every other Democratic candidate on the ticket an improved chance for winning their race.

But as Democrats, we'll probably find the most divisive, the most contraversial and the most self-serving candidate that will only serve to energize the GOP and make the Democrat's best opportunity in decades end in utter disappointment.

Oregon isn't the biggest state, but when it comes our turn to have a say, I know we'll send a strong message.  I doubt it will be the knockout punch but it will get Obama just that much closer to wrapping things up.  Go Barack! I am thankful he is running for President of ALL of the United States.  


by Rick in Eugene on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 10:05:57 AM EST

Long Primary Benefits Dems (none / 0)

At first I thought that it'd be best of Obama could've wrapped it up last week and taken all of that fund raising advantage and used against McCain this spring. That would have allowed Obama to have clearly defined McCain as Bush III, focused on 100 years of Iraq, and essentially had the 50-state ground game in place by the summer for a great November. I think that Obama is the strongest candidate because not only will he run a 50-state strategy but also because his coattails (witness Foster) are for real.

Now, I think that media focus on Obama for three months can either help him or hurt him. This is the chance to deal with the CiC issue, Rezko, lack of hearing on the subcommittee, present votes, etc. Moreover, if he takes the hit now by the fall these issues will be old news. Then the election will really focus on 1) the economy 2) Iraq 3) Healthcare and the lack of any real domestic agenda. Those will all favor us.


by chatters71 on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 10:22:45 AM EST

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

Echoing others here, why doesn't the Hillary Clinton campaign embrace the 50-state strategy?

Instead, they disparage it as "boutique states" and "latte-sipping states that don't need a president".

Straight out of the Rove-Republican script.

Amazing to see the 50-state strategy embraced here...


by OH Mark on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 12:11:02 PM EST

Re: The 50-State Strategy In Action (none / 0)

But the bottom line is that prior to that "huge" new registration 59,000 voters were registered democrats and only about 8000 showed up at the polls. And the rest of Wyomings, what 3.5 million voters, are repugs.  I like a 50 state strategy (being from texas and not getting attention and all) but it isn't a substitute for winning states we can win. So all this bouncing around about Ohh Obama won in Wyoming and all those red states isn't going to cut it. And Hillary's win in Texas isn't going to win us that state either. But she is winning swing states and that is what will count. I suggest that the primaries have told us we must start working to make sure that we have a joint ticket in the fall. If we lose any of our constituencies in the fall we face 4 more years of republican rule and republican supreme court justices.  Lets not , yet again, choose the guy who can't win in November.


by Bornagaindem on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 12:17:53 PM EST


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