After Clinton's astonishing comeback on March 4 with huge wins in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, the Obama camp has been sloshing around trying to come up with some new strategy to stop the bleeding that is now occurring in their campaign.
The Obama advisers realize that after the contests in Wyoming and Mississippi, there is little wiggle room available to claim some sort of victory mandate for them. For example, the primary in Mississippi on March 11 where he is expected to win is comprised of 37% black voters, similar to what was seen in his wins in Louisiana and South Carolina, so no surprise there. Wyoming is a caucus state which has favored Obama for the most part, again he should do well there and there is no surprise. Both states are "red" Republican states that will go to McCain in November. The best he can hope for is to erase or reduce the delegates that Hillary won in the March 4 contests.
Clinton has a large lead going into the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania, it is a state that is tailor-made for her. She has all the support of the major establishment in that state and demographics favor her there. She is expected to win, but unlike Mississippi, this is a large state that is essential to the Democrats chances in November, thus it is labeled a must state for either candidate. If Hillary wins here, she can once again claim that she has won all the large, industrial and blue collar states necessary to win in November. Make no mistake, this is a very convincing argument to make to the Super Delegates who will now decide this election.
After Pennsylvania, comes two very important Primary contests in Indiana and North Carolina. In Indiana, Hillary has the support of Evan Bayh, the very popular Senator and former Governor of that state. Indiana, like much of Ohio and Pennsylvania is a rust belt state with mostly white, rural and Blue Collar workers that favor Hillary. It is a state she should do well in. North Carolina has mixed demographics. Western Carolina is mostly rural white voters that would favor Hillary. The larger Urban areas of Charlotte and Raleigh would favor Obama. Eastern Carolina is a mix of older and younger voters. It should be said that North Carolina boasts a large concentration of retired folks that could sway the outcome in favor of Hillary in that state. The latest polling from N.C. indicates that Clinton is within the margin of error in that state...47 to 43% taken prior to the March 4 results.
Other states that tend to favor Clinton include West Virginia with its heavy concentration of middle and lower income workers (coal miners) and the fact that this state is mostly white and older voters. Kentucky is another state that Clinton will do well in as it is similar in demographics to much of the rust belt region of the country.
Oregon's contest is still an unknown as it boasts many upper income or affluent liberal voters which could favor Obama, but if Clinton should continue her momentum going forward, the state could follow suit and carry the day for Hillary.
That leaves Puerto Rico in June. As we all know that island is mainly Catholic Hispanics that have overwhelmingly gone to Clinton in every contest thus far. Especially important now that they have decided to go to a primary format as opposed to a caucus. This should help Hillary to carry Puerto Rico.
It doesn't look promising for Obama going down this last stretch of contests. His only hope is to convince most of the Super Delegates that he should be the nominee based primarily on the idea that he has more delegates than does Clinton. However, this argument does not bode well for him as most Super Delegates will base most of their decisions on who has the most momentum in the end, and who has the best chance of beating McCain base on a number of factors, including experience, credibility, demographics, most "Blue" States won, and must-win constituencies. On the Experience, Large Blue States won, and constituencies, Obama is on the short end.
Thus the old saying we have all heard so many times before:
Obama sat on a wall, Obama had a great fall, All of his Money, all of his empty words, and all of his pledged delegates, Cannot put poor Obama back together again.
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