Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had A Great Fall

After Clinton's astonishing comeback on March 4 with huge wins in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, the Obama camp has been sloshing around trying to come up with some new strategy to stop the bleeding that is now occurring in their campaign.

The Obama advisers realize that after the contests in Wyoming and Mississippi, there is little wiggle room available to claim some sort of victory mandate for them. For example, the primary in Mississippi on March 11 where he is expected to win is comprised of 37% black voters, similar to what was seen in his wins in Louisiana and South Carolina, so no surprise there. Wyoming is a caucus state which has favored Obama for the most part, again he should do well there and there is no surprise. Both states are "red" Republican states that will go to McCain in November. The best he can hope for is to erase or reduce the delegates that Hillary won in the March 4 contests.

Clinton has a large lead going into the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania, it is a state that is tailor-made for her. She has all the support of the major establishment in that state and demographics favor her there. She is expected to win, but unlike Mississippi, this is a large state that is essential to the Democrats chances in November, thus it is labeled a must state for either candidate. If Hillary wins here, she can once again claim that she has won all the large, industrial and blue collar states necessary to win in November. Make no mistake, this is a very convincing argument to make to the Super Delegates who will now decide this election.

After Pennsylvania, comes two very important Primary contests in Indiana and North Carolina. In Indiana, Hillary has the support of Evan Bayh, the very popular Senator and former Governor of that state. Indiana, like much of Ohio and Pennsylvania is a rust belt state with mostly white, rural and Blue Collar workers that favor Hillary. It is a state she should do well in. North Carolina has mixed demographics. Western Carolina is mostly rural white voters that would favor Hillary. The larger Urban areas of Charlotte and Raleigh would favor Obama. Eastern Carolina is a mix of older and younger voters. It should be said that North Carolina boasts a large concentration of retired folks that could sway the outcome in favor of Hillary in that state. The latest polling from N.C. indicates that Clinton is within the margin of error in that state...47 to 43% taken prior to the March 4 results.

Other states that tend to favor Clinton include West Virginia with its heavy concentration of middle and lower income workers (coal miners) and the fact that this state is mostly white and older voters.  Kentucky is another state that Clinton will do well in as it is similar in demographics to much of the rust belt region of the country.

Oregon's contest is still an unknown as it boasts many upper income or affluent liberal voters which could favor Obama, but if Clinton should continue her momentum going forward, the state could follow suit and carry the day for Hillary.

That leaves Puerto Rico in June. As we all know that island is mainly Catholic Hispanics that have overwhelmingly gone to Clinton in every contest thus far. Especially important now that they have decided to go to a primary format as opposed to a caucus. This should help Hillary to carry Puerto Rico.

It doesn't look promising for Obama going down this last stretch of contests. His only hope is to convince most of the Super Delegates that he should be the nominee based primarily on the idea that he has more delegates than does Clinton. However, this argument does not bode well for him as most Super Delegates will base most of their decisions on who has the most momentum in the end, and who has the best chance of beating McCain base on a number of factors, including experience, credibility, demographics, most "Blue" States won, and must-win constituencies. On the Experience, Large Blue States won, and constituencies, Obama is on the short end.

Thus the old saying we have all heard so many times before:

Obama sat on a wall, Obama had a great fall, All of his Money, all of his empty words, and all of his pledged delegates, Cannot put poor Obama back together again.  



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Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

Uh, Clinton didn't have huge wins, and they weren't comebacks - she was ahead in all three states polling well before the date of the election, and netted 4-8 delegates out of it.

So I think your scenario is a little flawed right off of the start.


by Cycloptichorn on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:19:52 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

And continuing the flaws...what is this huge lead in Pennsylvania of which the writer speaks. The lead of 15 points a week ago is 6 points today.

Perhaps, Hillary will pick up another 6 delegates in her huge win in Pennsylvania.

Hillary is farther behind in delegate count today than she was Monday. She will be farther behind Sunday than she is today. She will be farther behind on Wednesday than she will be on Sunday.

She will be farther behind after Pennsylvania than she is today.

Anybody who thinks this race isn't over is in denial. It is time to get together behind the candidate and heal the party.


by vermontprog on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:30:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

If all you can boast about is his measly 90 delegate lead then you have real problems with what's left of this race. You had better hope that he wins most all of the remaining contests and by huge numbers, or he is finished in the eyes of the beholders, which in this case is the supers. Bye Bye Obama


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:41:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

Depending on whether or not you count super-delegates,

Obama is either up by 140 or by 100.  Not exactly a 90-point lead.


by Cycloptichorn on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:42:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

She wasn't ahead in all 3 states, and according to the polls he was suppose to be closing in on her in Ohio and Rhode Island. Well we saw what happened. Texas polls has him up for the most part. So your analogy is not correct.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

This is untrue.  She had a large polling lead up until a week before the election, then Obama was up a bit, then she went back up a bit.  That's not a comeback, it's a temporary dip in your support.

Btw-  your site is extremely difficult to read, too much crap on the page.  Simplify and it will be much better!


by Cycloptichorn on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:43:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

Hillary, The Comeback-Kid. Look at all the headlines. Just a bunch of poor losers, can't stand the heat.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

Oh sorry my site disappoints you. I quess that is why I average more than 20,000 hits per month, have received honors for my site from numerous publications and a rather large listening audience on my radio program. Can't win them all!


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

It's not a matter of disappointment - it's a matter of having way too much crap on the page.  It makes it take a long time to load and doesn't really add value to the site.

Don't take it as angry criticism - far from it.  I'm glad that the site does well for you.  Just saying, you might want to consider getting rid of some of the extraneous stuff.


by Cycloptichorn on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack (none / 0)

She didn't "endorse" McCain... I can't believe the spin on this. She said she and Mccain were better qualified to lead as C&C than BO... get real. Every little nuance she gets fried. Let's wait for a photo of her on Drudge to show up picking her nose while she is shaving her tree-stump" legs to show her more feminine side. I don't know why anyone would ever want to serve this country... this is all getting quite disgusting. Since when did we become a country of people who constantly ridicule and smear and destroy other people's lives gleefully??? After this election, I think I drop out of being a part of this nonsense.


Take it to the Convention! Hillary '08"
by JHL on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:23:36 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack (none / 0)

Another thing that is disturbing besides what others do or don't say is how it is perceived by others. I have never seen so many people go off the deep end over picking a president. What is wrong with mankind? I think everyone is going nuts.

The comments by limbaugh the other day were totally off the wall when he tried to make light of a Clinton/Obama ticket. Saying in essence that Clinton loves being "on top" and having Obama as her "wipping boy" going on to say, "Can you imagine such a ticket selling to the electorate." These were not his exact words, but the message certainly was loud and clear as far as he was concerned.

Bottom line is that Obama cannot close the deal, which means that voters have serious doubts about him, which will not help him when the Supers decide.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:37:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

Huge wins in Rhode Island and Ohio, yes. Huge win in Texas? No. And even Ohio wasn't as huge as it was supposed to be. She came back, but not all the way to her starting point.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:36:49 PM EST

She didn't endorse McCain (2.00 / 1)

for President. She pointed out that:
  1. He will be running on experience. Which he is.
  2. Her experience compares favorably to his.
  3. Barack Obama's experience does not.
Can you show me the quote where she endorsed McCain for President? Can you explain to me how Barack Obama's glowing assessment of Ronald Reagan is any less an endorsement on a Republican nominee who is running is running as the second coming of Ronnie, which they all do? And last but not least, as one old woman to another, can you explain to me how you think it is helpful to your candidate to try to be rude and disruptive in any and every diary, as opposed to using reason and logic to support your positions?
by georgiapeach on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:49:21 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack (none / 0)

Oooh!  I think SOMEBODY is a sore loser!  Hint:  rssrai


by PlainWords on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:01:42 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Sat on His Wall, Barack Obama Had (none / 0)

Yup, Mississippi and Wyoming don't matter, because Obama is expected to win them.  But Ohio and Rhode island do matter, even though Clinton was expected to win them.  Glad to see you got the talking points.

Other states that won't matter: Montana, South Dakota, Oregon, Indiana, and North Carolina.


by Skaje on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 06:59:38 PM EST


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