Obama Wins Texas!!!

NPR is now reporting that when the counting is over that Obama will come out of Texas with 98 delegates to Clinton's 95.

While Clinton won the primary vote with the small margin of 51-48, netting 65 delegates to Obama's 61, her voters did not show up for the caucuses that followed. The state Democratic Party now estimates that the caucuses will have netted Obama 37 delegates to Clinton's 30.

Since Monday, then, Billary has gained 8 pledged delegates while Obama has gained 7 in the Superdelegate race. To sum, Hillary has gained one delegate in her big week. At this rate Hillary will catch Obama somewhere around June of 2010.

It's time the denial ended, that we all accept the party's nominee, get behind him, and let the healing begin.

While Hillary may think McCain more qualified to lead the country to Obama, she is in the minority among Democrats. Let's send this guy back to Arizona.



Display:


Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 6)

Not when she won the Texas popular vote...I think this the clear signal that caucuses need to go.


by ejintx on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:42:13 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

Oh, nah.  You only think that b/c Clinton lost that portion.


by Cycloptichorn on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

I think anyone confronted with this gap would say the same thing.


by ejintx on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:51:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

Not necessarily. Caucus have another rationale than primaries and one could argue back and forth about which is more important. Personally, I think a mix like they have in Texas is not a bad thing.

The primary process is supposed to strengthen the Party and select a candidate. The caucuses are doing a lot to strengthen the Party by drawing in highly motivated supporters who will be more likely to actively support the candidate in the GE.


by marcotom on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:10:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 1)

But they produce two entirely different results; one of which is actually much more representative of the the whole "democracy" thing this nation was built on.  Why don't we just caucus in November if the system is so great?


by ejintx on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:12:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

How does he make the argument of "winning" when his message all along has been we need to adhere to "will of the people"?  She had 100,000 more votes in the primary, but because of the stupid system with caucuses, he nets more delegates.  Seems like the "will of the people" has been thwarted once again.


by cmugirl90 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:42:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 4)

Sure, count second voters. Voters in the caucus is not in addition to the primary, it is voters who already voted. So, by that, Clinton won Texas among the 2.8 million who voted.

Story is over. Texas is the prime example of how undemocratic caucuses are.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:45:00 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 1)

Um, NO THEY DON'T.  Primary votes, went to currently pledged delegates.  The caucus votes determine how many delegates go to the county, then state and then the delegates are awarded.

So to recap.  The counting for delegates assigned to the county level is almost done, the county caucus' are in April.  The State caucus is in June.  The delegates will then be pledged there.

So, what we know is, that Hillary won more delegates than Barack in the Primary and has more pledged delegates out of Texas right now.

The caucus votes DO NOT count as votes with the Primary.  Or else they would be combined and would be required by law to be tabulated and reported within 24 hours.

The assertion that Barack won Texas is absurd.  Barack may have (or will) won the caucus, but he did not win Texas.

Sorry, but reality is reality.


He that lives upon hope, will die fasting. -Ben Franklin
by TxDem08 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:33:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 4)

The process is undemocratic.

Caucuses disenfranchise the elderly, single mothers, workers in the service sector, the active servicemen off-shore.

Is this the kind of win you're proud of?  Remember Bush v. Gore?


by Sieglinde on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:45:29 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

Yes! Clinton may challenge those Texas Caucus fiasco. Lots of reports of woter indimidation and lockout by those Obama people.

I have to laugh at this guy posting that Obama comes out of Texas with a wopping 3 more delegates, boy that sounds like a real winner to me..

I hate to burst the bubble with these delegate math freaks, but the pledged delegates are not going to determine who the nominee is going to be this time around, so best they start thinking of some other strategy to win, because that is not going to sway many supers minds, especially if he only has a small lead in delegates in June, which looks to be the case. Like less than 100 or even less, not a good sign for Obama. He should concede


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:50:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Get off your lies! (2.00 / 3)

She NEVER endorsed mccain.

Id this the new memo you O supporters are getting from the O campaign?


Washington Woman
theocracywatch.org
EENR Blog
by kevin22262 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:45:36 PM EST

All hail the Wonder Of O. (2.00 / 2)

He Who Must Be Obeyed...


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:20:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: All hail the Wonder Of O. (none / 0)

Ooh, was that my first TR on MyDD?  I've got to call Mom!


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:43:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

LoL/ Your really off base on this. She certainly didn't endorse McCain. She said that both her and McCain have much experience and all Obama has is a speech. So let's get the record straight and stop twisting the facts, much like Obama is doing.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:46:10 PM EST

How undemocratic (2.00 / 1)

nothing to celebrate, unless you are willing to do anything just to win...


by linc on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:46:46 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 1)

Proportional delegation as it stands needs to go. There should NEVER be a situation where one candidate wins the state's popular vote and does not get the majority of the delegates.  Delegate allocation should be tied to the popular vote of the entire state.

Democrats screamed that it wasn't fair that Al Gore got the majority of the popular vote in 2000, but he lost it in delegates to the Electoral College.  Now we have codified this discrepancy in our own party.

Ridiculous!


-----------

Blog: http://fitnessnerd.blogspot.com/

by FitnessNerd on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:51:34 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

Did you read my comment?

How is it Democratic that the majority of the state's delegates do not go to the person who wins the majority of the popular vote in the state?

Understand, or should I get out a coloring book for you?


-----------

Blog: http://fitnessnerd.blogspot.com/

by FitnessNerd on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 03:35:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 1)

Dude, you are on drugs. Clinton won the primary with 3 million votes. Obama won a violence tainted caucus with 100,000 votes. The primary is lot more like the general election than these joke caucuses. What matters no is not the delegate count but who can prove they can win in November. Obama cant win real elections in big states. Period.


by moi moi on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:52:37 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 1)

Yes, he could have won the popular vote in Texas.  The point is that he did not win the popular vote in Texas.


by mgee on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:58:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Really? (2.00 / 2)

Isn't this like Obama "winning" Nevada?

I'll take the orderly, fair, and huge win in the primary (that also involved 2 weeks of early voting) over a "win" in the clusterfuck that was the Texas caucus.

(I was there in my own caucus in Austin, and I don't use that word lightly).


by Scan on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:54:04 PM EST

It's a bit ironic. (2.00 / 1)

I think that the Obama campaign would have had a better result had they lost the delegate count by one or two in Texas, because the "reversal" result enhances Clinton's argument that the pledged delegate count does not reflect the will of the people.  

I'm not an Obama supporter, but if I were, I wouldn't push Orwellian doublespeak about "winning" Texas when he lost the popular vote by 100,000 actual private personal votes on real ballots cast secretly throughout the day at polling stations statewide.  

Please note: I do not think that caucuses are undemocratic just because Clinton failed to organize for them.  I think that they are undemocratic because they are.  I'm also not dismissing the results of caucus states.  I don't want to "change the rules" and "not count" caucus states.  I'm just making a point about the language and the larger narrative.  


by mgee on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:56:58 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 3)

It's an amazing piece of anti-people-powered-politics that the proponents of "caucus delegates" and not "peoples votes" contort themselves into in the name of Obama.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:58:55 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (2.00 / 1)

Ding Ding Ding!  We have a winner.


by ejintx on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:10:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

Jerome,

I thought you wanted to grow the Democratic party from the bottom up. People powered politics is focused on getting people to participate in the process, however the system was designed. Or maybe I was mistakened about your goals.


by kjblair2 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:50:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

This, from the group who want SuperDelegates to step in and rescue Clinton from her pledged delegate deficit.


by goodnbad on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 03:02:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

Just like Bush won Florida!


by rossinatl on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 12:59:38 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

Rules are rules. Whether you like it or not, pledged delegates matter more than popular vote in the democratic primary. The Obama campaign didn't make the rules so don't blame them.
by supsupsup on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:16:13 PM EST

Live by the rules, sometimes die by them... (2.00 / 1)

I'm glad you said rules are rules.  The rules I've seen say you need 2025 delegates to secure the nomination.

Please show me the "rule" that the Obama camp likes to talk about that forces SUPER delegates to vote the way pledged delegates have been allocated.  Or, could it be that there really isn't such a rule?  

So, given that Super delegates are really free to vote whichever way they want, are you willing to concede that if, by chance, enough swung to Hillary to give her the nomination, it would be totally within "the rules" you like to tout?

There's really no question here.  If you're to be consistent and not hypocritical, you MUST come down that way.  


by DaTruth on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:29:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Live by the rules, sometimes die by them... (none / 0)

Did anybody else see the blog post (I had it somewhere, but can't find it) that if you went by the Obama rules and every SD had to vote as their state did, Hillary wins by a bunch?


by cmugirl90 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:47:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Live by the rules, sometimes die by them... (none / 0)

Wrong. I don't mind people supporting their candidate but at least stay in the real world.

In fact dkos did this very excercise today. For the states that have voted, Clinton would have a 5 superdelegate lead if all of the SDs were forced to vote as their state voted. Projecting the remaining primaries, Clinton would pick up another 13 superdelegates. That would give her a 18 delegate margin. Given that Obama has a 152 pledged delegate lead at the moment, I think Obama would be very happy to go down this path.


by kjblair2 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:57:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Live by the rules, sometimes die by them... (none / 0)

actually, she would be winning 330 - 325 if the SD voted the way their states did.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3 /7/0190/93691/842/471056
by supsupsup on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 02:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Live by the rules, sometimes die by them... (none / 0)

...that if, by chance, enough swung to Hillary to give her the nomination, it would be totally within "the rules" you like to tout?
Yes, totally within the rules. Likely to happen, no. You really think the supers will not vote for the candidate that has a 125+ pledged delegate lead? Tuesday was a big day for hillary but she only gained 7 delegates. I don't think she will be able to make a dent in his 154 delegate lead with the remaining states.
by supsupsup on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 02:08:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Live by the rules, sometimes die by them... (none / 0)

And it's unlikely that Clinton will pick up enough superdelegates to erase Obama's pledged delegate lead. It's not impossible, mind you, just hard.

Clinton has a 40 superdelegate lead at the moment while Obama has a 152 pledged delegate lead. There are 611 pledged delegates left and 275 superdelegates left. Lets assume that Clinton picks up 15 delegates in the remaining primaries. (Given the way delegates are allocated, it's going to be difficult for either candidate to run up big margins.) To erase Obama's lead, Clinton would have to get 186 (68%) of the remaining superdelegates. Obama would only need 89 (32%).

And yes, most superdelegates are free to vote for whomever they choose. (Unpledged Add-On Delegates in theory are free to choose. However, since they are hand-picked by the candidates, once selected it's highly unlikely they'll change their minds.)

Clinton just has a harder path to the nomination than Obama has.


by kjblair2 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 02:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Endorsement". (none / 0)

"You keep saying that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means."

Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:19:20 PM EST

Again, don't be so fast. (none / 0)

Irregularities are still being looked into and there may be a challenge. I wouldn't claim that O won the caucuses yet. From my understanding, there were many, many wrongdoings. The Clinton campaign has a legtimate right to question these votes (I've been hearing quite a bit from the legal team down there). The question is: will they? In this primary, when each delegate seems to be counting heavily, I would urge her campaign to come public as soon as they can with at least a quarter of the information I've heard. Let O's dirty campaign be even more exposed and weigh whether or not to challenge and prosecute.  


by Soitgoes on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:36:05 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

one person - one vote.

Unless you're in TX and vote twice (caucus & primary).
Unless you live in FL or MI and you're vote doesn't count at all.


by AnnC on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 01:40:57 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

Unless you live in FL or MI and you're vote doesn't count at all.
your vote also doesn't count if you do not live in a significant state.

significant state - a state that hillary clinton did won in the democrat primary election in 2008. Although TX was deemed significant, it's status was later downgraded after the caucus results.
by supsupsup on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 02:18:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

You didn't get the memo?  Delegates don't matter.  Only superdelegates, apparently.


by Skaje on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 06:56:50 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Texas!!! (none / 0)

How is NPR even reporting anything official when any news site I've just been to still shows that only 41% of caucus results are in?

But you state: "Since Monday, then, Billary has gained 8 pledged delegates while Obama has gained 7 in the Superdelegate race. To sum, Hillary has gained one delegate in her big week. At this rate Hillary will catch Obama somewhere around June of 2010."

Using available figures, Hillary picked up 9 more in OH, 5 in RI, and 4 in the TX Primary, for a total of 18 she made up.  But Barack picked up 3 more in VT, cutting her increase to only 15.  It looks like NPR is extrapolating the % currently shown for the 41% of the caucus calculated, which is Clinton 44% and Obama 56%, to the total 67 to be applied.  They even site 2 less in their pickup than I'd calculate (they note only 7 while I get 9).  But even so, if he picks up 7 in the caucus--that would cut her gain to 8, not the 1 pickup you note?


HRC: "...not a vote to rush to war--it...puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President, we say to him 'Use these powers wisely and as a last resort.'"
by ChargedFan on Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 07:47:08 PM EST


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