it's easy to dismiss this possibility.  it's not at all intuitive, and even democratic bloggers seem to overlook the consistent ability of republicans to leverage specials, party switchers and message (including wedge issues) into results beyond their means.  i'll concede that a lot of this comes from the training that republicans receive (such as the leadership institute which has trained tens of thousands of conservative activists) as well as the fact that republicans conduct campaigns with a uniform doctrine and republican voters act as a more unified and disciplined voting block.

but special elections offer a unique opportunity for republicans to hone their skills and improve their chances.  specials tend to have lower voter turnout, which means that voter contact is all that more important.  republican voters tend to turnout regardless, so it becomes simply a matter of informing them that an election is being held.  there's not a lot of persuasion necessary for the traditional republican voter.  this allows republicans to concentrate their forces on one area and one type of voter -- the ones who lean republican.

this is how the republican party took over the south from the overwhelmingly dominant one-party (democratic) rule of more than a century.  richard nixon may have had a southern strategy, but it wasn't until after ronald reagan's election that the south started to elect republicans to congress and local offices on a mass scale.  phil gramm was the poster boy of the republican doctrine, both as a party switcher and a winner (as a republican) in a special election.  tom delay credited the gramm example as the key to the strategy that led to the republican takeover of the house in 1994.

so republicans have a lot at stake in saturday's special.  they understand that democratic success in special elections in 2006 led to democratic success in the fall of 2006.  and they realize that republicans reversed this trend (or blip, as they call it) in 2007.  they have to win this one, especially, if they are to have hope for returning to their fund-raising prowess and project hope among the faithful for the fall elections.

interestingly, this special election -- and barack obama's role in it -- was the subject of conversation on the press bus from milwaukee to oshkosh on february 15.  as far as the media following barack was concerned, this race is a bellweather, and it appears that the results will drive their narratives for the next six months.  i'll admit that the media is probably conditioned by republicans (and their touting of their success) to see special elections as indicative of future election results.  but you can be sure that if oberweis wins, this special election will be the most important indicator of what will happen in the fall from the republican and mainstream media's point of view.

that's real power.

but there's a trick.  you see, republicans win special elections.  they aren't supposed to lose (and i've heard several republicans argue that the specials in 2006 were a severe anamoly).  as dave said,

Of course it may also just mean that low turnout helps Republicans. Always.

it's up to us whether or not the special election saturday will be a low turnout -- and thus, a decisive republican victory that mccain can ride into the white house.  the foster campaign has taken significant steps to negate traditional republican strengths.  they are using both iraq and the economic downturn as wedge issues as well as using the divisive republican primary to lure disaffected republican and swing voters.

of course, there's more to it than that.  on a completely different level, this race is a surrogate race between barack obama and john mccain.  mccain endorsed oberweis, and obama cut an ad for foster.  indeed, barack stands to benefit from a foster win.  foster would become a super delegate to the democratic convention, and would undoubtedly support barack for the democratic nomination.

so it should be no surprise that the national republican congressional committee is spending a million dollars to elect jim oberweis.  the results of this race will either give hope to a discouraged republican base or depress them even more.  you can join barack obama and donate here or volunteer to help in the next three days.  you have the power to drive a stake through the heart of republican hopes in 2008...