Does anyone else feel like February 7th was a lot more than one month ago?

First thought. How incredibly amateurish to let something like this leak out. Amateur hour in the White House. Yikes.

Try and remember the political mood a month ago when this spreadsheet was "accidentally" sent to reporters.

Oy, how stupid do they get?

and I also don't understand why you think everyone should read it.

I also don't get the point of this diary, and furthermore, unless I'm reading the column wrong, it's predicting more delegates for Clinton...

And if it was leaked a month ago, a lot of good it did - no one's apparently heard of it until now.

As a RABID spreadsheeter, I can attest to the fact that I generate a variety of spreadsheets on a variety of topics every day that test various scenarios.  To suggest that this is the gold standard for what Obama precisely thought would occur is ridiculous.

destined to win Pennsylvania by 10%. Game over...

:)  Her lead amongst super delegates will be GONE long before Pennsylvania votes.  Mark my words.

You people are so misinformed its a riot all by itself.  Delegates don't matter unless you get the required amount. 2025.  Doesn't matter what the supers are even saying at this point.  None of this stuff even matters.  Its all a show, and an interesting one at that.  The party makes the call.  Always has, always will, the voters are just going along for the ride.  You still just don't get it, do you?  These number games are just that games, unless Obama wins with the magic number, which by his own math he cannot, he doesn't have this nomination, no matter what the delegate count is.  Some delegates are more important than others.  I know it isn't fair, but this was never a fair game and this is not an election.  Its a party nomination.  You just don't understand.  The super delegates are not required to vote for your guy unless he has 2025.  Thats the truth.  I'm not lying to you here.  The total vote number may be something they look at, but it will be based on which states, how much margin, how many states with no chance this fall, all that is taken into consideration, not the pure numbers.  I know it sucks but that is the way this party has done it for years, and these super delegates are not swayed by all this chatter either.  They will take a look at the states we need this fall to win, consider which candidate can carry the other's voters, and right now?  If those voters in Ohio were going to vote for Obama, they already would have.  That is why these big dem states are more important this fall because we must carry those in the fall, if Obama looks shaky in those states, he will not get this nomination, no matter what you think is fair or the claim that somehow this is being taken away from him, he doesn't have it, so it can't be taken away from him.

Great point, Setrak.  I noticed this too -- and in fact, the spreadsheet's predictions for March 4 are likely to be within a few delegates of the overall results.

I go into more detail on this (looking at the delegate count) in The day after: an essay on narrative and strategy" on my blog Liminal States ... is still a draft, so I'd love to hear people's feedback.