Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO!

Texas reminds me more and more of California.

Recall how Hillary had a lot of momentum while the EARLY VOTING was going on, then Barack started to gain traction, leading to first a closing of the polls, then a final Zogby poll showing that momentum and a LEAD.  

However, the benefits of the early voting (in the primary) in CA, led to a Clinton win of about 10 points.  Respondents in Zogby's poll may have WANTED to vote for Obama, but had already cast their vote for Clinton.

In Texas, there are TWO things at work.  One, is of course the same thing that benefitted Hill in CA.  Early voting.  Obama is going to CRUSH Hillary in the early voting, which was conducted before she started trending up a bit.  Secondly, Obama's ground game (especially for the caucas portion) is much stronger.  Don't believe me?  From Politico's Smith...

"Behind the scenes, meanwhile, the Clinton campaign was scrambling Monday to put a field operation in place for Texas's two-step electoral process, in which the primary election is followed by caucuses at each of about 8,000 precincts around the state. One aide said that while the campaign had rounded up thousands of volunteers to represent the campaign at those locations, they were still well over a thousand short.

The organizing scramble was matched by an internal struggle to tamp down flashes of public sparring between senior aides, with many damaging leaks focused on chief strategist Mark Penn. Penn did himself few favors internally Monday with an email to the Los Angeles Times in which he noted that he was responsible only for the campaign's message, not its organizing or its spending."

In the end, I think that Obama will wind up winning TX by about 5-7 points and win more delegates.  

In OH...I think HRC used every arrow in the quiver and will win by about 7-9 points.

In RI...I think HRC will win by about 5-7.

In VT...I think that Obama wins by 15-21.

Net GAIN of 10-20 delegates for Obama.

Now, if this is the case...remember that I have PROMISED to not post any diaries until the end of the week, for fear of making it look like I am rubbing it in.  I will hold to that guarantee, so this may well be my last diary for a while. Try not to miss me!

Fianlly...everyone...play nice!  If my predictions hold, understand that even though there WAS a split (and HOW amazing is that given that Obama was down by DOUBLE digits just 3 weeks ago?!)...the DNC is going to be applying HEAVY pressure (Bill Richardson was obviously sent out like Dodd was last week to send the notice) for Hillary to "suspend", but not END her campaign.

Mark my words...the Superdelegates will leap from Hill to BO faster than Dick Cheney's heart rate while watching a tractor-pull.

Peace!


Poll
Outcome?
Clinton wins all 4, gains 20+ delegates
clinton wins 3, gains 15+ delegates
clinton wins 2, gains less than 10 delegates
BO wins 2 gains less than 10
BO wins 3, gains 15+ delegates
BO wins all four, gains 20+ delegates

Votes: 12
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


This makes sense (none / 0)

Hillary's late push in TX will be limited by early voting on behalf of Obama. The other thing is the caucus issue, which Hillary still seems unprepared for. She even released a memo telling volunteers to stake out the rules positions 15 minutes early...as if Obama's people wouldn't read that memo and get their volunteers out even earlier! And Clinton is the one we should trust in a crisis?


by elrod on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:40:38 AM EST

Everyone calm down (none / 0)

Don't get too excited... Anything can happen so unless you want to feel crushed when things don't turn out so rosy, keep the euphoria in check ok!!

As for me, this could be my last day blogging and as a Democrat... So come on, Hillary... don't make me have to suffer through withdrawals.


by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:51:43 AM EST

Re: Everyone calm down (none / 0)

What do you mean, diplomatic? Under what circumstances are you quitting?


by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:55:14 AM EST
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Let's see how Clinton loses first... (none / 0)

If she loses Texas solely because of Republican crossover voters like so many of the other states and the party doesn't resolve the Michigan and Florida situation... I will not be happy with the Democratic party.

The blogosphere is almost to the point of being intolerable now so just imagine how it will be if Obama sweeps today.  The Obama supporters are not known for being gracious in victory.  I'll just be getting on with my life in more positive venues. :)


by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:06:32 AM EST
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Re: Let's see how Clinton loses first... (none / 0)

Just curious, but have you ever heard of a demographic called Reagan democrats?  Isn't this a demographic you would like to get back in the party?


Hillary Clinton is not a monster,....as far as I know.. We are all Hussein JUNIOR.. ///.. FEINGOLD/BOXER 2016
by Its Like Herding Cats on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:22:24 AM EST
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Don't care anymore quite frankly (none / 0)


by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:32:11 PM EST
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Re: Don't care anymore quite frankly (none / 0)

And people wonder why the Democratic party hasn't won an election since 1976, and please don't come back with Clinton won twice, because he never got majority of votes, NEVER, he won with a plurality only.


Hillary Clinton is not a monster,....as far as I know.. We are all Hussein JUNIOR.. ///.. FEINGOLD/BOXER 2016
by Its Like Herding Cats on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:37:59 PM EST
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I've only voted for Kerry (none / 0)

I was behind his candidancy 100% on Daily Kos and defended him against HUNDREDS of stupid comments and attacks...

I will not be doing the same for Obama.  That is all.

The reasons for why the Democratic party hardly wins elections goes far beyond whatever happens on blogs.


by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 01:25:38 PM EST
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Re: Let's see how Clinton loses first... (none / 0)

"The Obama supporters are not known for being gracious in victory."

Just so you know, we feel the same way about Clinton supporters.  It's just that it's been a while since we've faced that situation (good-natured ribbing).

"I'll just be getting on with my life in more positive venues."

God speed, diplomatic.  We should all be so lucky.  If you make it to the other side (where the positive venues lie), be sure to send a postcard.


by the mollusk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Some polls show Hillary won early voting in TX (none / 0)

What does that do to your prediction?


"Sometimes government should give a helping hand, and sometimes it needs to get out of the way." Annon
by Edward3615 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:57:20 AM EST

Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

No one is going to win all four. I think Obama is strong in TX, but the early voting has been split, whereas in CA it was in favor for Clinton by some 10-12 points.


by American1989 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:57:24 AM EST

Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

Obama will lose Texas - possibly by double digits. Ohio by definetely double digits. Rhode Island by double digits. He will win Vermont (big whipy) And he will be well behing in the national pols by the end of the week.

By the end of today, he will have lost the nomination to Hillary.

I expect you all to campaign hard for, as good Democrats that you claim to be.


by moi moi on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:00:42 AM EST

Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

My grammar sucks. Sorry. But, on the bright side, if we work together to elect Hillary, you have much better grammar and spelling. :)


by moi moi on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:01:48 AM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

but will YOU, moi moi support Barack if he continues on the current trajectory?  I will support HRC if she can overcome BO's lead... will you support BO if she can't?


by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:19:16 AM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

moi moi?


by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:51:23 AM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

Yeah...that's what I thought.  

BOK-BOK-B-GOK!


by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:25:41 PM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

Sorry, I did not check my comment section. Yea I will support the nominee (even if it is McGovern 2 - but without the good character of McGovern).

By the way I love your use of BOK-BOK-B-GOK. Is that some sort of new hidden language for the Obama cult.


by moi moi on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 02:18:16 PM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

I will support HRC if she is somehow able to close the gap with Obama in delgates and prevail.

moi moi, will YOU do the same for Barack if he winds up continuing on the current tragectory?  


by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:03:37 AM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

This seems like a plausible outcome for tonight and beyond. Have you noticed that the media and the "O" supporters are already trying to downplay a huge comeback by HC tonight. They try to use this delegate wedge to put a damper on the results, but that is not going to work, because when the superdelegates and later primary voters see how HC is winning the big blue states and making a comeback the momentum will surely switch in her favor.


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:59:41 AM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

SurveyUSA has Hillary up on early voting. If there is a revote in FL and MI she will win. Those delegates will be seated.

On a very serious note though, how do we explain 11-0 and yet getting contributions of $35m, and now at least the possibility of a 3/4 win.

I would say this is just as awesome as Barack's accomplishment so far.

The Republican governor of FL says every vote should count, for his own reasons I am sure, and is offering to pay for a new primary. We'll see.


"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."
by LadyEagle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:02:18 AM EST

Well Ben Nelson is also pushing hard for this (none / 0)

Democratic Senator who appeared in ads in Florida urging people to go vote and that it will count.


by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:08:18 AM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

LE...of COURSE Crist wants the revote...he knows, like Limbaugh and Rove that Obama is the tougher GE opponent.

Of the dozen or so polls that have been released realtive to early voting, ONLY Survey USA shows a slight edge for Clinton, primarily due to the fact that the classic survey model cannot reach the demographic classes that voted en masse for Obama...namely NEW voters of all stripes (AAs, Youth, former non-particpants) who are not part of the calling lists. I don't know why SUSA did not try to introduce a model that even conservatively adds these folks, but literally HUNDEREDS of thousands (in the area of 200-250K) of BO votes were cast after rallies.

Here is the SUSA poll verbiage:

Do-Si-Do In Texas Democratic Primary: Clinton and Obama End-Up Even -- 36 hours till votes are counted in the Texas Democratic Primary, contest is a Jump Ball, with Obama's momentum now slowed, and possibly stalled, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-Primary poll conducted for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas.

Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 5 points. Last week, Obama led by 4 points. Now, Obama leads by 6/10ths of 1 point, effectively tied, and completely consistent with either candidate winning tomorrow by a narrow margin. Clinton's inroads in the final week come among voters age 35 to 49, where she is even today, after trailing by 18 points last week.

In East Texas, which includes Houston, Clinton had trailed by 18, now trails by 5. This is offset in Central TX, which includes Austin, where Clinton led last week immediately after being endorsed by the University of Texas newspaper, but now trails by 19.

Among voters who attend religious services regularly: tied. Among Pro-Life voters: tied. Among Pro-Choice voters: tied. Among voters focused on the Economy: tied. Obama remains far ahead among men. Clinton remains far ahead among women. Among Latino voters, Clinton finishes 2:1 ahead of Obama, better than she polled 1 week ago, but comparable to where she polled 2 weeks ago.


by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:17:25 AM EST
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Re: Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO! (none / 0)

As an Obama supporter, let me say that I fully support a re-vote in those states to resolve this potential disaster with some sort of legitimacy for all parties involved, even if it means Hillary picks up delegates (although that is no certainty, especially if MI re-votes as well as FL).


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:36:01 AM EST
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The NAFTA Fiasco will kill Obama in Michigan (none / 0)

If it is hurting him in Ohio, it will kill him in Michigan.


"Sometimes government should give a helping hand, and sometimes it needs to get out of the way." Annon
by Edward3615 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:56:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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