MyDD :: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In Texas

Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In Texas

by Todd Beeton, Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:06:25 AM EST

Very interesting to see that now even Zogby finds a trend toward Hillary Clinton in Texas, and a dramatic one at that.

Candidate 3/1-3 2/29-3/2 2/28-3/1 2/27-2/29 2/26-28

Clinton 47 44 43 43 42

Obama 44 47 47 45 48

Zogby's analysis chalks Clinton's turnaround in the state up to an increase in support among men:

"In Texas, Hillary had a slight lead in Sunday's polling, which was enhanced by her lead in Monday's polling, and those are the figures combined into the two-day rolling average of our poll. How did she pull ahead? She clearly increased support among white men and Hispanic men, mostly based on her late campaign focusing on her fitness for military command.

Interesting that it would hone in on the "fitness for military command," seeming to imply, essentially, that the 3AM ad worked (although she was questioning Obama's fitness on that measure on several fronts.) The idea that the ad would move male voters is especially unbelievable since it was widely considered a big ole dog whistle to women. And this Slate piece found that the ad only worked among those who were pre-disposed to supporting Clinton, i.e. it had no persuasive value. So, I'll be curious to find what it was exactly that moved men to Hillary in the final analysis because I still doubt if the 3AM ad did her much good.

Ultimately, Clinton's late surge is due to, well, late deciding voters breaking for her.

"Among those in Texas who were just making up their minds in the last few days, Hillary now leads by four percent, which pretty much tells the story."

Tags: 2008 presidential election, democrtic nomination, texas primary, hillary clinton, barack obama (all tags)

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Yep this was mentioned on ABC news last night (2.00 / 4)

In the previous open thread I pointed out that the verdict is still out on whether the 3 A.M. ad was a winner or a flop. Most of the bloggers and the pundits thought it was not going to help her, but as it has been proved time and time again, sometimes the kool kids can be wrong.

by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:16:01 AM EST

Repubs New Agenda, STOP OBAMA! (none / 0)

The Republican's New Agenda is to Stop Obama, they want to run against Hillary. They have so much dirt in their Arsenal on the Clintons just waiting to be Unleashed (movies, scandals, lawsuits, books) -- that is why Rush Limbaugh is Begging, Begging his listeners to vote for Hillary. Limbaugh declared: "I want the funeral music to play at some point to the Clintons, but not this early." America, if Hillary becomes the nominee, we haven't seen nothing yet!

Who released the Canadian Memo and distorted its contents--, where did that come from and who called Goolsbee to a meeting and conveniently set him up? Who pushed up Rezko's trial which, was to start much later this year? Why did the Somali picture come out, along with Farrakahn endoresement and a radio jock mocking of Obama's middle name? Which was allowed to be played over and over again by the Main-stream media. We have to ask these things? Who wants to Kill unity and hope? Was this part of the Kitchen Sink or may be the Basement (Swiftboating)? I do know its dirty politics and until we reject this kind of politicking in America we will be a pawn in their hands, the people of power, and never find our true Independence and Voice which Obama is offering. The Evil Ones are just getting started, warmed up. Someone is trying to pull our strings. The Truth will come out, however. Hopefully, America we can see through this Rouse this time and elect CHANGE!

by bacalove on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:09:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The same Republicans before... (2.00 / 3)

Limbaugh and the rest of talk radio had been encouraging Republicans to crossover and vote for Obama during this entire primary in all the previous states. Only until this March 4th contest did they change their tune.

I guess they wanted to run against Obama before?
No wait, don't answer that. I cannot receive the signal. My tinfoil hat is at the shop.

by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:46:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The same Republicans before... (none / 0)

That's right. They wanted Obama before and they want Clinton now. They believed (before) that Obama would be easy to beat. Now, having seen his enormous rallies and huge fundraising abilities (in small donations), they know that he is nearly impossible to beat.

So now they want Clinton. It's not so hard to understand.

by smoker1 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:28:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Repubs New Agenda, STOP OBAMA! (none / 0)

Yes, MyDD denziens, this is the same "the other candidate's strength is driven by two-faced Republicans" which we've seen so many times coming from Clinton supporters. Tell me, those of you who favored this explanation, does it still seem compelling to you when someone else is grasping at your straw?

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:40:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

His response ad.... (2.00 / 2)

may have been his undoing. It was a self-inflicted wound. He didn't have to do it. It showed him following her lead. Right down to copying her exact images and words. And since the issue was leadership it was a grave error. She lead, he followed.

by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:30:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: His response ad.... (none / 0)

As far as this election goes: She lead. He leads drastically. She trails drastically. She's out tomorrow.

*VOTE DEMOCRAT! - HRC or BHO* Obama '08 - Full of reason / Hillary '08 - Full of treason (Gallup Poll, March 26 2008) / McCain '08 - Diaper's full of Bushit.

by VT COnQuest on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:48:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This the type of cutesiness that is his problem (2.00 / 2)

It is a serious issue that people get in their gut. Or their reptile brain, as we accused Rove of manipulating for years. It revealed that Obama just doesn't get it. He attempted to trivialize the issue in a follow-the-leader style with him in the follower position. It was too cute by far and doesn't work.

At least in my opinion, but I'm a nobody.

by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:05:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This the type of cutesiness (none / 0)

Well, nobody,

What is interesting to me is that when Obama, with clear policy positions, drive, brains, all of that, tries to run a campaign on optimism and hope (yeah doesn't that sound dumb), his followers get trashed as unthinking cultists (Hale Bopp tag line, tin foil hats, Kool-aid, oh and always misogynists, we are really supposed to be unthinking, nasty, and just plain stupid), but the appeal to the reptile brain of fear is legitimate and supportable. I agree that his ad was not helpful, but I respect him for trying to bring the issue into the light where people use their entire brain, not just the reptilian, to think about it. His response was clearly attempting to turn it into a policy rather than an emotional appeal. I somehow respect that.

I'm not sure I much care who wins this thing anymore, I'm just so tired of seeing people appealed to on the basest of levels.

You're right about Rove. He gets it and I guess now so does the Clinton campaign. I hope the Obama campaign, win or lose, never does.

by mady on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:15:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: oh stop with the victimhood (none / 0)

We are the ones we have been waiting for. I love the youngsters getting excited about Democratic politics for the first time in their lives. I love the pure enthusiasm and the absence of cynicism for the first time in 40 years. You know what, 1968 kicked the shit out of me and this is the first year since I've seen a major party capture the imagination of the young in this way, and it is a wonderful thing to see, bad slogans, silly slogans, and all. These are future Democrats, they like the party, they believe in what we stand for, and if the gatherings take on an evangelical turn, well you are converting the apathetic young to YOUR politics. Honestly, I don't know why that doesnn't please you, for either candidate.

Respectfully..really..think about what you are doing with your sarcasm.

by mady on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: oh stop with the victimhood (none / 0)

This coming from a supporter of the "victim""change""mockery""fighter""f ear" candidate?!...pfff. Get off the emotional HillarCoaster, it's riding off the rails!

*VOTE DEMOCRAT! - HRC or BHO* Obama '08 - Full of reason / Hillary '08 - Full of treason (Gallup Poll, March 26 2008) / McCain '08 - Diaper's full of Bushit.

by VT COnQuest on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:55:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I disagree (none / 0)

His response was perfect because it directly answered her charge and did so within hours. Think for a moment if he had not responded that way. The media would be pushing the 3am ad all weekend long as a sign of Hillary's inherent strength on national security and not as a sign of her going negative on the campaign trail. This is the Carville law. Respond ASAP and neutralize the narrative. He did that.

by elrod on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:43:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (2.00 / 0)

Actually Obama didn't neutralize the narrative he kept it alive. Not only did he respond with his own ad but he's been sending out Kerry and Rockefeller to vouch for his national security credentials. (ironically both voted for the war)

When the discussion is on national security, Obama is playing to Clinton's strength, just like when the debate was about Change Clinton was playing to Obama's strength. As much as he might hope, there are still many people who don't equate support/non support for the war, as the biggest factor in national security credentials

by world dictator on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:15:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, he seems really objective.

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:50:01 AM EST

Looks like it's personal for him re: Penn (none / 0)

by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:47:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 3)

There are 5 polls (PPP, Insider Advantage, Belo Tracking, IVP and ARG) showing Clinton with a lead. Tonight will be interesting in the Lone Star state

by Safe at Home on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:55:45 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Having a lead isn't enough. She has to win the caucuses too if she's going to come out with more delegates. All these newfound GOP supporters she's getting won't stick around for the caucus.

So, I'm going to stick with MattTX's projection of an 11 delegate gain for Obama based on a caucus win and keeping things tied overall district by district. It doesn't matter who wins the statewide total because you don't get any delegates for that. A lot of Clinton's leads are going to get eaten up by 2-2 delegate districts.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

by X Stryker on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:59:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 3)

---So, I'll be curious to find what it was exactly that moved men to Hillary in the final analysis because -------

A large part could be the 4 star Generals with her on the weekend. I know that General Wes Clark is very polular in Texas. Not only was he the commander at Fort Hood but in recent years Clark has campaigned heavily in TX for candidates in local races.

I believe Clark is co-chair of Hillary's veteran's committee and has campaigned heavily for Hillary through out the veterans community

I suspect the other Generals ( Shelton, Shali, Eaton etc) with Hillary are also well known in Texas and have done their part for Hillary

by Best in Show on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:19:29 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 2)

Gens. Shelton and Shalikashvili were past Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I dont think they would give an endorsment without some thought. The rap on Sen. Obama is that he is not tough enough to be President. Talking to the leaders of Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea and Venezuela without preconditions is Foreign Policy lunacy.

by Safe at Home on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:29:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Because the President of the United States should dangle a meeting over people's head, asking for tricks to be performed.

The 9/11 commission recommended direct meetings. As it is right now, our foreign policy is the biggest joke. Let me sum it up for you;

"Tell Cuba that we'll talk to them once they bend over and take it from us. And they got to be smiling."

"Behold, I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves! Therefore, be as wise as a serpent, And as harmless as a dove."

by Setrak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:39:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

You raise a good point about Cuba. All Raul Castro has to do is release all political prisoners and I could see some movement on lifting the embargo. Here is an article about this in the New York Times.Click Here to Read

by Safe at Home on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:04:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Up late, eh, Todd? (2.00 / 1)

I think the "kitchen sink" strategy worked, basically where Maggie Williams & Company over at the Clinton campaign had a day-by-day plan for disadvantaging Obama in the news cycle. The Clintons excel at this in clutch situations. Basically, they'll set out a plan for a whole week, a week-and-a-half, what have you, for putting a news story out there that either raises up Clinton and/or trashes their opponent. I mean you could track it from over a week ago:

1. Saturday, 2/23: "Meet me in Ohio"

Sunday, 2/24: Hillary mocks Obama in RI
Monday, 2/25: Foreign policy speech at The GWU
Tuesday, 2/26: Debate; slams Obama and the MSM
Wednesday, 2/27: Obama/McCain flap re: Iraq; Clinton campaign revists Obama's lack of work on subcommittee
Thursday, 2/28: Announces $35 million for Feb.
Friday, 2/29: 3 a.m. ad
Saturday, 3/1: Clinton on SNL
Sunday, 3/2: Obama/Canadian consulate flap re: NAFTA
Monday, 3/3: (Obama), Rezko trial

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:28:13 AM EST

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (2.00 / 1)

You left out complaining about the media coverage while manipulating it. I appreciate your candour but you are talking about this negative strategy like it's a good thing. You really admire this kind of politics, don't you? You believe that we have to become like Republicans in integrity and tactics to beat them, I'm guessing. If that's true, we've already lost.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:21:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (2.00 / 4)

A good strategy is a winning strategy.

How often have we all complained that we don't have a candidate who is willing to do what it takes to win?

I actually think that both Clinton and Obama are the kind of candidates who are willing to go the distance and do what it takes. Neither of them are taking the high road in this race -- and I'm glad of that, frankly.

It's a dirty battle ahead agains the GOP slime machine. We need to be ready.

by carrieboberry on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:51:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (2.00 / 1)

We have met the enemy and he is us.

Walt Kelly - Pogo 1967

As Obama said in November, we have to win this as Democrats, not Republicans. "What profits a man to gain the world and lose his soul" (Mark 8:34-38).

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:03:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (2.00 / 1)

Did he?

Strange considering he's taking a middle of the road conciliatory approach to partisan politics. He hasn't seemed the dedicated partisan Democrat that his primary opponent is.

If he wins the primary, I hope that he runs in the general as a Democrat and should he win the general that he governs as one as well. Haven't seen it that much when compared to Hillary Clinton. I hope you're right.

by carrieboberry on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:30:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (none / 0)

This party - the party of Jefferson and Jackson; of Roosevelt and Kennedy - has always made the biggest difference in the lives of the American people when we led, not by polls, but by principle; not by calculation, but by conviction; when we summoned the entire nation to a common purpose - a higher purpose. And I run for the Presidency of the United States of America because that's the party America needs us to be right now.

Senator Obama - Remarks of Senator Barack Obama: Iowa Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Des Moines, IA 10 Nov 07

He's a Democrat all right, and the first one to build us a new constituency in a long time.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:40:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It remains to be seen (2.00 / 2)

if he's "built a constituency."
If he loses, and they stay home for the General, he's built a following.

by sgary on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:22:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It remains to be seen (none / 0)

Well, that's a good point.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:33:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (2.00 / 2)

Just a reminder, being a Democrat is about policy, not strategy.

As I said previously, a good strategy is one that wins the White House. Whatever that may be.

It's on the policy side that Obama needs to prove his Democratic credentials. Both he and Hillary have the mettle to put together a winning strategy I don't doubt that. We are seeing the results of that today. The simple fact that we still don't have a winner is that really we have got two winners on our hands. What a nice problem to have.

by carrieboberry on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:33:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (none / 0)

Well, on policy the most significant differences between Obama and Hillary are on foreign policy, arguably the most compelling issue facing our nation. I have diarised on this topic for some months, try this for starters.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:44:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (none / 0)

Winning is not enough if you don't accomplishing anything when you are there. We elected democrats to Congress and we got a bunch of scared people, afraid to stand up and do what we sent them to do. My problem with Bill Clinton in office was just that -- he was so addicted to being on top of the game of political spin, when something came along that required even a tiny risk of that carefully cultivated popularity, he couldn't run away from it fast enough. And thus did 800,000 Tutsi die over six weeks at the hands of thugs with machetes.

People differ over who is the fighter in this primary, and who is more prone to compromise their principles, or perhaps doesn't have any. We may disagree on that, but we should agree that winning political battles is a means to an end. If it becomes the overarching goal, the hope of progressive change is lost.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:49:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (2.00 / 1)

Is Bill Clinton running again?

by carrieboberry on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:06:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We have met the enemy, and he isn't us! (2.00 / 2)

"We have met the enemy and he is us... As Obama said in November, we have to win this as Democrats, not Republicans. "What profits a man to gain the world and lose his soul" (Mark 8:34-38)."

This is exactly the moralistic idealism that has lost us the past two presidential elections, leaving our party powerless against those who threw our country into an ill-advised war we cannot extricate ourselves from, deregulated markets that have driven us into recession from loss of business confidence, tax cuts for the rich in a time of war that caused the largest budget deficit in history, a shattered social safety net including 51 million people without health insurance, hundreds of thousands of people losing their homes, destroying our unions, need I go on?

We need candidates who can stand up to the right wing destruction machine. This isn't a sand box or play pen we are playing in, it's real life and real people suffer and die, or are crushed as their dreams die inside them when we allow the right to take over and strip mine our country and people of all our resources. It takes guts, and a willingness to do what it takes to get the job done and take our country back.

Hillary will do it. Respect it, instead of wilting under the pressure. She will do whatever it takes to get our country back on the right track. Smart Democrats will get behind her and I promise you, the country will be in such better shape 8 years from now that Barack Obama will have a cakewalk getting elected to his first term as president. Voters won't even think about letting a Republican anywhere near the White House again. We need someone that smart, that sharp, that skilled, we need a master. You watch how she will outperform any of the past presidents we have had.

Something has shifted. She has hit her stride now, the momentum is within her. You can feel it in her stance and hear it in her voice, it's the sound of steel inside and a rooted commitment that will brook no failure. You can feel the people lining up behind her, because now they can feel she is in this for real. She is a force of nature. That's what it takes to make history.

by 07rescue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We have met the enemy, and he isn't us! (2.00 / 1)

No, not at all.

John Kerry lost in 2004, not Howard Dean. Al Gore lost in 2000, and he did not run a campaign of moralistic idealism. Regan ran on moralistic idealism, and he won two terms handily.

Mark Penn's targeting of voter demographics and calculated appeals to selective interests has neither worked for democrats in the past, nor is it working today. People go back to Bill Clinton as the examplar of the "pragmatic" democrat, but that isn't an objective view. The Bill Clinton of 1992 -- or even of 2004, as the "laws of politics" clip shows -- had more in common with Barack Obama than with the vision his wife is offering.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:54:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Indeed. (none / 0)

The Republicans could give a rat's ass about clean campaigning or the moral high ground. We can spout all the pretty words about the evils of dirty politics we care to, and we will lose again. We have to be willing to get into the mud with them, and beat them at it, because the other side will snicker at our high mindedness as we hand yet another electoral victory.

We can govern effectively. We can successfully promote a progressive agenda for America. But we have to do whatever it takes to take down the other side, because there is not a scenario under which they will ever play fair...

No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...

by jarhead5536 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:30:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indeed. (2.00 / 1)

"We have to be willing to get into the mud with them, and beat them at it, because the other side will snicker at our high mindedness as we hand yet another electoral victory. "

This is exactly true. It scares me that all these "hope" voters supporting Obama, who want to "talk with their enemies" would in fact abandon him if he has the intelligence and guts to actually do what is necessary to do to win. After he gets nailed for it (inevitable), they will get all in a huff and drop out, feeling betrayed because it isn't a pretty picture, what anyone needs to do to get elected.

Obama has positioned himself so he is backed into a corner with his veneer of high minded ethics. It a sense it is like the Republicans establishing a litmus test of social conservatism for their candidates - as soon as one of them veers away from the preachy, moralistic stance the support of the right wing falls away. So will Obama's "hope" supporters. That is the limit of their commitment. He will have to play by their rules. And those rules preclude winning elections, they render a candidate impotent.

You need to figure in the loss of those high minded and youth voters, who will look down their noses on politics when the fight gets underway. I believe the intolerance of so many Obama supporters, who are complaining that Clinton should drop out already, that the fight has gotten too negative (hah, you ain't seen nothing yet), for even allowing the fight to get underway underscores their lack of fortitude for the long journey, and a squeamishness that is inappropriate for politics.

by 07rescue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:37:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (none / 0)

3/3/08 - HRC on John Stewart

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:20:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Up late, eh, Todd? (none / 0)

Thank you.

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:13:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ads... (2.00 / 1)

Obama has been toting around the retired Air Force commander in Desert Storm on commercials where as most of the Hillary ads have been the 3 a.m., "In Texas, better said than done," and a few others. The American Leadership Council, or something like that, has been doing anti-Obama ads and SIEU has been doing this annoying Obama ad ("We need someone whose not 'gone Washington.' Someone like BA-ROCK O-BA-MA" - I'm not lying, the woman who says it annunciates it so harshly).

So, I'd say either the American Leadership Council's "Hillary's health care plan" ad or the 3 a.m. is where it's at. I thought Obama was ridiculous to drag about this Air Force Guy while Wes Clark and friends were campaigning in Texas. Furthermore, I'd be offended if I was Ted Kennedy and crew if I heard that ad - "The old left has let us down" or something to that effect.

by ejintx on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:32:17 AM EST

Re: Ads... (2.00 / 1)

I would think that even Kennedy would agree that the "old left has let us down".

They've allowed the conservative noise machine to take over our country and change the way we talk about issues.

I mean, I'm let down. Not by Kennedy himself, or Feingold, or Durbin but I am let down by liberal leadership for the better part of my entire life (32 years)

by alex100 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:29:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 5)

Questioning your respective candidate's opponents loyalty to the Party, huh? There's a rational argument.

by ejintx on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:33:39 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 4)

You know, she could simply be praising McCain for his lifetime of service to this country and particularly the people of Arizona. I'd say four Senate terms compared to Obama's lack of one completed one does adequately prepare him for the job. You can debate his policies, but he's obviously experienced.

by ejintx on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:38:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Besides the question of loyalty to the party, it really points to her lack of viability in the general election. So she runs on the notion that she and McCain are the experienced candidates. And the moment we're in GE mode, he points out that he in a decorated military veteran with a distinguished career as an administrator in the military, served four terms in the Senate, while she in a one-and-a-third term senator whose other experience consists of sleeping with a decision making and defending child-rapists.

If this election is about experience, we lose. Hillary has defined herself as the experienced candidate, and she won't last five minutes with McCain, a candidate with crappy policies and untrustworthy judgment, but great experience.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:01:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

She's not even sure he's not a Muslim.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:24:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 1)

Stop with the lies about her, it's really over the top.

by 07rescue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:42:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Tell it to 60 Minutes. He provided the link for you.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:01:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 1)

Unfortunately she is telling the truth about Obama, and telling the truth has a persuasive quality that voters are clearly responding to accurately. You know, there is something about truth that people find compelling...

by 07rescue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:44:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

well, she has done little to nothing in going after McCain. Whether on the stump or in the debates. Obama has been the one attacking the percieved notion that McCain is just an extension of Bush.

meanwhile Clinton thinks its swell to tout McCain's awesome experience, and hers while relegating our probable candidate to just one speech from 6 years ago. I'm sure, after hearing her campaign rhetoric that she will be voting for experience come November (McCain).

She also has done little for "transformative" politics. You see Donna Edwards helped by the surge in votes for Obama and now you have Obama cutting an add for Bill Foster (on the "change" message) to help win Il-14.

by alex100 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:56:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 2)

You can believe what you want, but as Jefferson said, "When a man turns a longing eye toward public office, a corruption begins to develop in his conduct." People are people, and Washington is, has been and always will be Washington. You gotta play the game.

by ejintx on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:36:30 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 3)

The largest economic expansion in history and the Clintons have no legacy?

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:42:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Tell me what kind of influence the Clinton Presidency had on the economy! What policies? The economy is pretty much independent of politics, you can subsidize it if it is running bad but if it starts rolling, there is nothing you have to do, it keeps going by itself.

by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:36:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 2)

Said like a true laissez-faire Capitalist. Usually, though, they're Republicans.

Whenever I hear "the economy is independent of macro policies by the government" or anything to that effect, which is what you said, I get a distinctly Republican Bush vibe from it.

by Mar154 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:52:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Oh, the Clinton's have left a legacy all right - one riddled with scandal, back-biting politics, infidelity, etc., etc., etc. Another Clinton in the White House means same old, same old. I am hopeful that Senator Obama can give our government a new lease on life. I am very tired of politics as usual. Will Senator Obama make mistakes? You bet. He is human after all.

by Chill Factor on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:42:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

They have a great legacy! They went from a 57 seat majority in the senate to a 45 seat minority... I forget how many house seats they lost, but wasn't it like 70?

That's a fine legacy!

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 3)

You know, I'd love to sit here and play "let's revision history and human nature," but it is primary day in Texas, and I have work to do. Nice chatting with you.

by ejintx on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:43:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 1)

"This 'game' is exatcly what Obama is trying to change. "

I have a bridge in Manhattan I would like to sell you.

by 07rescue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:46:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Ah, yes, the "you can't fight city hall and hope is a delusion" meme. Because it's worked so well for you in the last eleven states.

Keep running your mouth. That is the message that lost your candidate a shot at the presidency.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:07:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

"Ah, yes, the "you can't fight city hall and hope is a delusion" meme. Because it's worked so well for you in the last eleven states."

Your inflexibility will unfailingly lose the GE for Democratic candidates who lack the guts to do what is necessary to win. It is ironic that a Democratic Party nomination process seems to regularly turn into a process of strategic elimination of anyone with the political skills and strength to actually win.

Obama's own supporters will do him in if he tries to do what any candidate needs to do to win. Because he has promised to "change the game."

Hillary Clinton can win, and makes no phony promises she cannot keep about tactics. I admire that, and so do many voters. She has what it takes to get the job done. You can rail against the cynicism but I can assure you from the perspective of someone who has already been around the block, through all the quasi betrayals and conundrums of the political "process vs goals" issue, it boils down to who can skillfully take the heat, do what needs to be done to win, and nevertheless keep some precious heart and idealism intact and protected inside, to pull out and fight for after victory. It's a high risk art.

Purists do not do well in electoral politics, it eviscerates their inner rectitude. Only those who can accept a certain degree of ethical ambiguity survive, albeit with a little tarnish. In the end we do get a little bit of good done, at serious costs to ourselves. It's well worth it, never fear. It's not a perfect world. Grown ups can live with it and yes, we sleep at night.

by 07rescue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 0)

How about balancing the budget for the first time in 30 years, and leaving office with a surplus. How do you like our current debt?

by cameoanne on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:37:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Declaration of War (2.00 / 4)

I number of us don't like how the Clintons have been portrayed by the Obama campaign, so what's your point? Let us not forget what a great friend the Clintons and the African-American community were in the 90's, but now they're the great Satan? Please, that revisioning of things is insulting.

by ejintx on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:41:58 AM EST

Re: Clinton's Declaration of War (none / 0)

You must be watching and hearing different speeches and ads then I have. Just the opposite is true - it is the Clinton's who have portrayed Senator Obama as the ogre. And, it is not only Blacks who have crossed over to Senator Obama. He has pulled votes out of Clinton's voting base and brought more unity to the party - a phenomenon I have not seen since the days of JFK.

by Chill Factor on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:59:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Declaration of War (2.00 / 0)

You clearly have no idea at all what you're talking about. Dishing out hugs and appearing at events? Please.

The Clintons were very active in a whole host of issues that were important to blacks, from day care for low income families to broad economic issues that had a huge impact on black people. For the first time in decades, the situation for blacks in America improved substantially during the Clinton administration. And let's not forget the Clinton's tireless fundraising and helping blacks get elected to office all over the country.

The fact that you think Bill Clinton is somehow responsible for how many black men were in jail at the end of his term is very telling. Maybe you should look at how many black families were able to move out of poverty.

One more thing... Bush did not have more black cabinet members than Bill Clinton. And try not to forget that Clinton is the one who set this precedent. It's ridiculous that you're comparing Bush to Clinton favorably, especially with regard to race relations.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:08:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Crap (2.00 / 2)

Zogby and ARG agree with me.

Texas Economics

by IVR Polls on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:32:43 AM EST

Ohh ouch! (none / 0)

Did you poll Ohio?

by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:13:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Has The Momentum but GOPs want Obama (none / 0)

This is the exact opposite of what all Republican strategist and radio talk show hosts say, but why speak the truth if it does not benefit your candidate.

by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:38:15 AM EST

Re: Clinton Has The Momentum but GOPs want Obama (none / 0)

That's crazy talk. If the 'smart' pundits want their followers to get out and vote for a certain person (for whatever reason), how does it work for them to tell their listeners to get out and vote for someone else? Are the listeners supposed to be mind readers? 'Rush says to vote for Clinton but he really means vote for Obama'
Huh?

That One is the Right One for 2008.

by GFORD on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:43:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

If they aren't DOUBLE DIGIT margin wins in BOTH Texas AND Ohio (and they won't be), it don't mean SQUAT.

*VOTE DEMOCRAT! - HRC or BHO* Obama '08 - Full of reason / Hillary '08 - Full of treason (Gallup Poll, March 26 2008) / McCain '08 - Diaper's full of Bushit.

by VT COnQuest on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:43:52 AM EST

Uh yes (2.00 / 1)

It's the difference between dropping out of the race and having a solid reason to stay one more month until Pennsylvania. Obama would have to answer a lot of uncomfortable questions in that time.

Obama will be the luckiest man in the world to sweep away Hillary tonight.

by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:52:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jeez, pathetic (none / 0)

Obama is in deep doo doo if he doesn't win one of these states tonight. He has gone for the knockout punch here and I think he will be all punched out after tonight.

The amount of money he spent is obscene. He would have to have billions to keep up this burn rate per state in November. If he can't win now he won't then.

by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:24:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But if he does win... (none / 0)

it will be a big relief for him indeed. If he doesn't push Hillary out today he may start to think she's um.. inevitable... because damn Clintons just doesn't go down easy!

Even with big wins today, Obama still faces a looooooong time between now and the convention to survive the media scrutiny and any possible revelations. There's just so much we don't know yet. It will be interesting to see how the Republican media pivots against him if he sweeps today.

by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:42:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 2)

Hillary is countering her experience with her opponent's. That's what happens in a political race. She's simplifying it sure. And to great effect. Good for her.

If Obama is the nominee he's going to have to defend against just such an attack by McCain. If he and his supporters have to resort to whining as a defense mechanism, he's sunk.

Part of the primary process is prepping the eventual nominee for a tough battle. If you support Obama, don't whine. Explain to the other side why your candidate does have the experience it takes to lead this country.

When Obama is compared to Hillary, he doesn't have it. When compared to McCain, the fact that Obama is a Democrat is all I need to know. So, help me out here... What is the proper response that is not a whine? If your candidate wins the nomination, what should I say to McCain supporters who are making the experience arguement? For some reason I don't think that whining will cut it.

by carrieboberry on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:47:26 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (1.00 / 1)

No, we leave the whining to Hillary. It's her specialty. It is reasonable to point out that she's not a loyal democrat and she's using a variety of smear tactics and distortions, as well as praising John McCain, in a way that damages the party.

Hillary Clinton sees the democratic party as a tool to get her into power; beyond that, she cares nothing about its success. That is the truth about her, and that truth should be told.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:05:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Uprated to offset hide rating. Not sure this should be hidden...

Guess I HR'd someone that I shouldn't have (wish I knew who/how/why, but no admin will talk to me). Have a positive thought instead.

by Robert in WV on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 01:36:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

TODD / Other Admins, help please: (none / 0)

I posted a new diary but apparently the MyDD software balked at the MSNBC video code ... but I can't edit it out because the "Edit" button is unavailable. Nor can I erase it, and post a new version sans the video.

Even the comments section is unavailable.

If you can get into it, please remove the MSNBC video.

I got no "warning" that the code would create a problem.

by susanhu on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:52:01 AM EST

Re: TODD / Other Admins, help please: (none / 0)

Since I have no way to reach any of you, I will post a new version without the MSNBC video, and trust that you will erase the first version. Thank you.

by susanhu on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:52:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TODD / Other Admins, help please: (none / 0)

Try the 'Contact Us' link at the bottom of the page.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:13:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If Hillary could match Obama's GOTV (none / 0)

mcjoan's post last night about University journalism students was accomodated by Obama, Paul, McCain, Huckabee but not the Clinton campaign was telling.

Furthermore Obama has been edging and Training Texans in all his rallies on early voting and caucusing--which he called the 2 step voting.

I hope from now on Hillary start improving their grassroot and GOTV operations.

by jasmine on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:52:49 AM EST

Uhhhhhh (none / 0)

Todd,
you are kidding, right? How can anybody give legitimacy to Zogby this cycle??????

by Chavez100 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:00:34 AM EST

TEXAS Now Reminds Me of California: Compelling! (2.00 / 1)

Texas reminds me more and more of California.

Recall how Hillary had a lot of momentum while the EARLY VOTING was going on, then Barack started to gain traction, leading to first a closing of the polls, then a final Zogby poll showing that momentum and a LEAD.

However, the benefits of the early voting (in the primary) in CA, led to a Clinton win of about 10 points. Respondents in Zogby's poll may have WANTED to vote for Obama, but had already cast their vote for Clinton.

In Texas, there are TWO things at work. One, is of course the same thing that benefitted Hill in CA. Early voting. Obama is going to CRUSH Hillary in the early voting, which was conducted before she started trending up a bit. Secondly, Obama's ground game (especially for the caucas portion) is much stronger. Don't believe me? From Politico's Smith...

"Behind the scenes, meanwhile, the Clinton campaign was scrambling Monday to put a field operation in place for Texas's two-step electoral process, in which the primary election is followed by caucuses at each of about 8,000 precincts around the state. One aide said that while the campaign had rounded up thousands of volunteers to represent the campaign at those locations, they were still well over a thousand short.

The organizing scramble was matched by an internal struggle to tamp down flashes of public sparring between senior aides, with many damaging leaks focused on chief strategist Mark Penn. Penn did himself few favors internally Monday with an email to the Los Angeles Times in which he noted that he was responsible only for the campaign's message, not its organizing or its spending."

In the end, I think that Obama will wind up winning TX by about 5-7 points and win more delegates.

In OH...I think HRC used every arrow in the quiver and will win by about 7-9 points.

In RI...I think HRC will win by about 5-7.

In VT...I think that Obama wins by 15-21.

Net GAIN of 10-20 delegates for Obama.

Now, if this is the case...remember that I have PROMISED to not post any diaries until the end of the week, for fear of making it look like I am rubbing it in. I will hold to that guarantee, so this may well be my last diary for a while. Try not to miss me!

by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:27:02 AM EST

Re:EXPECT THIS MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS (2.00 / 2)

If Hillary Clinton wins at least THREE tonight
( RI,OH,TX) ,
EXPECT SEVERAL MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS!!!

Expect a HUGE shift in national momentum for Clinton. She will no doubt take back the lead in All National polls ( Even with 11 straight wins by Obama, her polls numbers have continued to been strong)- Looking at the states remaining,Expect this shift to Clinton be permanent moving forwards.)

Expect her lead in PA to increase to comfortable double digits. ( PA will be her BIGGEST WIN in terms if Margin in this Primary)

Expect her March Fundraising to a Record BREAKING month, beating her February record of $ 35 million. ( She already has 50,000 online contributions in since March 1st)

Expect many reluctant SuperDelegates who were being pressured my to hold-off supporting her- to Now start officially endorsing her Immediately.

Expect a Very Strong Possibility of John Edwards Endorsing her & encouraging his delegates to support her ! BIG ! ( John Edwards wants to PLAY an important Key Role in deciding this nomination. In addition, many reports indicate that he is NOT impressed & has reservations with Obama. That explains why he has not endorsed him inspite of 11 straight wins. )

Expect SERIOUS Doubts start to spread among many democrats about Obama's electibility.

Expect even More Super Delegates to endorsed Clinton after a BIG WIN in PA this April!

( Hillary would HAVE WON EVERY SINGLE LARGE Electoral Vote State in the Country-except for Barack's home state)- That's a Critical argument for November

Expect her to take the DELEGATE lead after BIG wins in Indiana, Kentucky & West Virgina.

The media is focusing today as Hillary's Decision Day. They forget to mention that TODAY is also EXTREMELY CRUCIAL for Obama.

If Obama does not close this today, Hillary's previous institutional advantage & previous solid strength among registered democrats will BALLOON & shift back to her again- FOR GOOD this time!

Just like Boxing,Baseball or Basketball, you ONLY get maybe One, Two, or at the most Three opportunities in a Series or bout to KNOCK OUT the Favorite/Defending Champion & win the Title.

This is Obama's 3rd try at knocking her off.

With all the negative stuff starting to creep in on Obama, THINGS could easily shift against him after tonight.

by labanman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:30:07 AM EST

Re:EXPECT THIS MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS (none / 0)

That's where their campaign headquarters is.

Rents are expensive; it's why they have so few field offices.

If Hillary pulls out a narrow victory in TX and OH (two states she was leading by 20 points a mouth ago) we go on. To Mississippi. To WY. To PA, where the last poll had Hillary by six. Obama's delegate lead doesn't go away, and the superdelegates, if they break for anyone, will break for the person with the delegate lead.

But she can stay in as long as she wants -- Republicans have Huckabee, we have Hillary. It's no skin off our collective noses. It's fun to beat you, week after week after week. See you when the returns come in.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:16:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:EXPECT THIS MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS (2.00 / 1)

I agree with the original post. If Hillary has a great night tonight, the pressure is back on Obama. He will not be nominated on the basis of a small delegate lead thus far.

by mikes101 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:55:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:EXPECT THIS MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS (none / 0)

He has a large delegate lead, not a small one. Hillary would have to win by 15% or more tonight in order to significantly cut into his lead; that's how big his lead is.

That probably isn't going to happen.

by Cycloptichorn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:34:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:EXPECT THIS MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS (none / 0)

The repeated claims of how one contest creates momentum for the next simply haven't borne out in this election. In any case, unless this crazy new Hillary momentum can catapult her to win by 25% margins from here on out, she has lost.

by snaktime on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:43:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Is a lifetime as a career politician the kind of experience this country needs? Maybe we need someone who still remembers what life is like outside the beltway.

That One is the Right One for 2008.

by GFORD on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:38:24 AM EST

this won't be over until... (none / 0)

there's got to be at least one more Will.I.Am video. Perhaps some people marching next time.

by diplomatic on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:44:18 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Clinton is loyal...to herself. It is beyond my understanding why people still see her as a loyal Democrat. She and Bill want the White House and will go to any lengths to get it. The two of them are like bulldozers - rolling over anyone they think is a roadblock.

by Chill Factor on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:50:28 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Maybe we need someone who will go to any lengths to get it. The other side sure will, and they succeed almost every time...

No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...

by jarhead5536 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:37:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Besides the fact Hill has lobbyists who will pull the strings if she wins the nomination.

by Chill Factor on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:53:36 AM EST

Re: Clinton's Declaration of War (2.00 / 2)

"With this repulsive statement Hillary made a campaign Ad for McCain."

Oh come on, do you really believe for a minute that the Republicans like, wouldn't have ever noticed that your candidate has virtually no qualifications, especially in national security, and isn't qualified for the job of president? Do you think they needed Hillary to think of it for them? Do you think their members give great credence to Hillary's word, so McCain will use this to his favor in an ad? It won't make an iota of difference, sorry. The flaw is in Obama, not in someone else's words.

Many of us Democrats do not believe someone who us unqualified should be nominated to run for president, most especially in a time of war. It's bad for the party, which will be blamed for his failures, and even worse for the country.

Perhaps if it were peacetime there would be more margin for error, but there is not right now. The job of war time president is not for amateurs.

Let him grown up and get the experience he needs and then come back and run.

by 07rescue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:56:15 AM EST

Re: Clinton Has The Momentum but GOPs want Obama (none / 0)

Baloney.

If the GOP wants Obama...why then is Rush asking his listeners to go vote for Hillary?

Why is Crist in FL trolling around looking for a means by which to revote FL?

Why do Hannity, Ingram, Bortz, ROVE etc., spend SO much time and energy propping up Hillary and calling Obama "Hussein"?

I normally won't say anything that is insulting...but folks..you are DELUSIONAL if you think that the GOP fears Hillary. She'll do more to enliven them and reduce any potential gains in the congressional races, thjan McCain EVER could.

by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:24:18 AM EST

Re: Clinton Has The Momentum but GOPs want Obama (2.00 / 0)

My question is this: who cares what the GOP wants? I vote based on who I think will make the best President. I don't give a damn what Limbaugh or any of those nutjobs has to say about Clinton, Obama or anything else. I don't care who they want to run against. It's our job to make sure our nominee wins, no matter who it is.

"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin

by Denny Crane on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:10:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Tom Brokaw claims 50 more supers are ready to endorse Obama in the near future: http://thepage.time.com/tom-brokaw-on-ms nbc/.

Very helpful, if true.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:25:27 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Oh, that is incredibly reassuring for an Obama supporter... When Zogby says you are ahead, you are most definitely behind! I can rest easy!

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:13:39 AM EST

Wonderful news. Now bring it home, pretty momma! (none / 0)

We've got momentum, baby. It's gonna be a great day for Camp Clinton. Kicking ass and taking numbers. That's my girl.;-)

Clintonism is the kind of Government I could get used to...

by Mariel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:15:12 AM EST

Small wins don't help her (none / 0)

Hillary needs big wins today. Not moral victories. Absent that, she's done.

"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."

by fugazi on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:28:00 AM EST

Markos predicts Obama +12 in TX (none / 0)

He implies he knows something nobody else does but he isn't sharing it. My guess is the typical Rep. cross-over voters are lying to pollsters.

by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:31:49 AM EST

Re: Markos predicts Obama +12 in TX (2.00 / 1)

Well if all of the pollsters are wrong and Markos is right then somebody isn't telling the pollsters the truth. I think, by now, the pollsters have dialed into the demographic shifts going on this year. I think even 100% AA turnout couldn't shift the result by 13 points. They are factored in to be high and they are less than a third of the electorate.

by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:57:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Markos predicts Obama +12 in TX (none / 0)

i don't think the pollsters know how to gauge these open primary contests. The shift for Obama can only come from independents and GOPers who the polling outfits are missing out on.

but yeah, I don't think 13 points is possible. 6-7 tops IMO.

by alex100 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:02:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Markos predicts Obama +12 in TX (none / 0)

If he's not willing to reveal it now, then it must not be worth much!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:29:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Well, I really hope Obama pulls it out in Texas. I don't want to not vote in the fall.

by RussTC3 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:52:32 AM EST

Re: Debate footage doctored to make Obama (none / 0)

Playing the race card again?

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:57:59 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

everyone who is threatening not to vote if their man or woman doesn't win the nominee, quit it. It's darn near idiotic of you to hold our nation's future in jeopardy because of contempt of one of these candidates.

by alex100 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:58:23 AM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

It's not me you have to worry about, it's the Independents and new people. I'll eventually come around (I've warmed up to Hillary actually).

I know a few people who say they've never voted or consider themselves Independent/Republican. They tell me they won't vote in the fall if Obama isn't on the ticket. I hope that's not the case. :(

by RussTC3 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 01:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 1)

Waiting for Al Gore ...
to demand a stop to HRC's gutter campaigning, post OH and TX. Is this how she wants to win? With disgraceful Wolfson-style politics? Against a national figure of such promise as Obama? I am stunned at the turn this campaign has taken. Nader suddenly doesn't seem so ridiculous.

by Peregrine on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:00:48 PM EST

Momentum talk is increasingly hilarious (none / 0)

After today, 40 states will have voted, correct? Isn't there a point at which all that matters is winning, and not momentum?

Obama has a 160 pledged delegate lead. Being generous, if Clinton wins Texas and Ohio by 10%, and we just ignore her likely disadvantages in delegate counting and the caucus in Texas, she can maybe make up 30 pledged delegates today. That leaves a deficit of 130.

There are 611 delegates left to be elected after today. Some of them are in states that are terrible for Clinton. There is no way she can come back in pledged delegates. I doubt she can even get closer than the margin if we just give her the Florida and Michigan votes.

This is why the Clinton folks aren't being realistic and why the party is in trouble. Her only way to win is to convince superdelegates to buck the pledged delegate result and/or to change the rules in FL/MI. That fight is just terrible for our party and it is her only strategy because she has no other way to win.

by snaktime on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:04:19 PM EST

Re: Debate footage doctored to make Obama (none / 0)

Now that is pathetic. The fact he is black is playing to his advantage not disadvantage! When I first heard Senator Obama in his famous speech in 2004, I was still in graduate school. I proclaimed that he'd be the first black US president. My roommate was more cautious and checked who his wife was and only agreed after finding out he married a black woman - "if he had married someone white, he won't be black enough to win the black vote!" Those were my roommate's words! Come to think about this now, it really makes me sad! The Clintons have not a fiber of racism in them. Bill Clinton was even proclaimed as the first black president. Do you know that Bill Clinton was the first president to mandate that environmental impact statements for any federal projects have to be done in connection with racial and economical background (the executive order is still effective today). This is the executive order aimed to prevent things like garbage dump sites, nuclear waste sites from being built in mainly African American communities! The distortion of his speech and intention in SC just makes me sick.

by observer11 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:05:50 PM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (2.00 / 1)

So, the fight and terrible for our problem. thus Hillary needs to back out of the race right? Should she win OH and TX tonight she will have certainly put an end to Obama's momentum and will put into question his ability to win key big states. She should stay in the race as long as she has a viable path to nomination. There is still a lot that can happen between today and the next primary. Why are Obama supporters so tastelessly pressing for this to end. 2,025 delegates is the magic number! Your candidate needs 2,025 candidates! How many times must that be repeated? If you are so confident in your candidate, then let him win by amassing the needed number of delegates.

by corunner26 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:29:59 PM EST

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

I want it to end because I care 1000 times more about winning in November as I do about whether Obama or Clinton is our nominee.

I absolutely agree that Clinton still has a path to the nomination. The problem is, she doesn't have a path to winning the pledged delegates. thus, her path to victory requires some combination of (a) superdelegates voting against the pledged delegate outcome, and (b) changing the rules in FL and MI.

It's not that I don't see her arguments about FL and MI, and I believe superdelegates can do whatever they like. But if she were to win that way - and that's the only way she can win - I think it would be a disaster for us. All everyone will talk about is how she "stole" the election from Obama, how the Clintons "will do anything to win." That's on top of the months and months we will spend bickering and raising acrimony within our party.

This is a great way to lose in November by destroying ourselves.

I will add that if it weren't for the incredibly stupid rules of our party's nomination, I would be all in favor of letting the election go on until the end. But the problem is that the election more and more centers on these arguments about the legitimacy and rules of our party's nomination process itself. that is just terrible for us to have the whole election be talked about as decided by a bunch of insiders and to talk about how stupidly we ran this whole thing and all that.

by snaktime on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Even Zogby Agrees: Clinton Has The Momentum In (none / 0)

Oops first sentence typo...
So, this fight is a terrible problem for our party..

by corunner26 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:30:56 PM EST

Re: if I had to guess I would say that men (none / 0)

You are doing something that is going to lose support in the general election for your candidate. You are telling me with my lifetime of politics, that I'm captured by something "amorphous and silly." You are telling me that I like Oprah (I don't). You are telling me I am part of Heaven's Gate or whatever that stupid cult was. This is not a way to get support for your candidate in the GE, really it isn't. It is childish and nasty.

Reality is details, good stuff like that, it's a hell of a lot more than that too. Obama's got both, to me, but if he loses and she wins, do you want his supporters to go into the voting booth remembering this kind of attitude?

by mady on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 02:47:27 PM EST

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Candidate	3/1-3	2/29-3/2	2/28-3/1	2/27-2/29	2/26-28
Clinton	47	44	43	43	42
Obama	44	47	47	45	48