MyDD :: Barack Obama Wins Vermont

Barack Obama Wins Vermont

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:12:24 PM EST

CNN and NBC News, among others, call Vermont for Barack Obama. More details to follow...

Update [2008-3-4 19:12:24 by Jonathan Singer]: The key number in Vermont seems to me 64 percent. If Obama can get about 64 percent in Vermont tonight, the delegate spread would be 10 to 5 rather than 9 to 6 -- a net gain of 2 delegates for Obama. I don't think Obama will be able to hit 70 percent, which would yield an 11 to 4 spread, but if he could hit that 64 percent mark it could potentially mean that Obama would net as many delegates from Vermont as Clinton will from Ohio.

Update [2008-3-4 19:29:55 by Todd Beeton]:For what it's worth, a friend who crunched the VT exit polls tells me that they are indicating a 62-37 margin for Obama.

Tags: Vermont Primaries, Vermont, Democratic Primaries (all tags)

Permalink :: 69 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Woo Hoo! 12 in a row!

OBAMARAMA

There will be another one tonight for him. Maybe two more.

by Cycloptichorn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:01:51 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Three? Ya' never know.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:02:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

One can hope.

Obama will probably net more delegates out of VT then Hillary will get from any of her wins tonight.

Hee hee

by Cycloptichorn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:05:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

It's happened before, hasn't it. Delegates, delegates, delegates. Hooray for Vermont and the Green Mountain Boys.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:07:29 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

I'll tell you this. Whomever is the one talking about delegates tomorrow night is the one that's lost.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:55:11 PM PST

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:09:22 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Uh-huh. Talk about the audacity of hope.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:10:47 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Lol, I'll put that up there with his other, not-so-accurate predictions. Not a great track record this cycle so far.

Also, a little bit of expectations-setting too. He knows that Hillary isn't going to close the delegate gap tonight. So he's attempting to downplay how bad that works out for her.

by Cycloptichorn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:10:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So Jerome is a loser? (none / 0)

Wasn't he the one harping about the delegates after Iowa and until 2/5? Wasn't he saying that it doesn't matter who wins what states, it's all about who wins the most delegates? That Obama only won Iowa by 1 (delegate)?

I disagree with his assessment and I don't agree with him that he's a loser.

by Kal on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:17:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So Jerome is a loser? (none / 0)

Actually, in a delicious bit of irony, I was chiding Jerome for thinking we'd have to break out the old abacus to decide this thing back in January.

He was right, but I'm happy to be wrong :-)

by zonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:28:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Jerome said it, it must be true?

ENOUGH!

by JDF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:29:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ohio (none / 0)

would shock me.

That's not spin - it's just an honest and sober assessment of the poll trends, the weather, and the Ohio turf.

My upside is to stay within 5.

If he wins Ohio, I just might call in sick to work tomorrow and tie one on tonight.

by zonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:11:39 PM EST
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Re: Ohio (none / 0)

You and me both!!

ENOUGH!

by JDF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:30:32 PM EST
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Re: Ohio (none / 0)

Way ahead of you, took the day off today (it's 11:33AM in NSW).

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:33:26 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

that was quick, not surprising

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:02:07 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Not a surprise.

by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:02:57 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

This will be the shortest election thread since Samoa.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:03:18 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

No sweep for Hillary tonight.

by animated on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:03:45 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

No surprise whatsoever. Move on

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:03:46 PM EST

The land of Dean delivers. n/t (none / 0)

by CarolinaNumber23 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:04:00 PM EST

Does the true test come in a half-hour? (none / 0)

We'll see....

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:04:28 PM EST

Re: Does the true test come in a half-hour? (none / 0)

Long after that. It'll be hours until we know who "wins" Ohio. We won't know the delegate count until tomorrow.

by Kal on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:05:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does the true test come in a half-hour? (none / 0)

Okay, then Clinton won.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:06:54 PM EST
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Re: Does the true test come in a half-hour? (none / 0)

um.... based on what? Nobody has numbers yet...fanatic

ENOUGH!

by JDF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:31:24 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (2.00 / 1)

Funny...chris Matthews is beyond thrilled that there will be no Hillary sweep tonight. Interesting.

by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:06:11 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Still want to see the margin and the delegate pick up, This will affect the overall delegate numbers for the night.

by mainelib on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:07:48 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

I think CNN had 67%/32% from memory.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:12:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

they actually didn't give exact numbers for the (none / 0)

total pop, but they said the white vote was 67/32. seeing as the state is 97% white...

BHO/HRC 08

by omar little on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:13:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: they actually didn't give exact numbers for th (none / 0)

Ap-o-logies for the inconwenince.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:23:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Vermont doesn't matter because there's too many liberals and independants and it's too small and Democratic. Also Hillary never campaigned there.

by Skaje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:07:55 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

No wonder they wanted to secede from the union. Let's not forget they own one of the thirteen stripes, friend.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:12:56 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

So it will just be 12. No biggy.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:14:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

not true (none / 0)

we were the 14th state, and we didn't need to secede, we were an independent nation before we entered the union. first nation on the planet to ban slavery in its constitution.

BHO/HRC 08

by omar little on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:15:12 PM EST
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Re: not true (none / 0)

I stand corrected, cheers.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:29:27 PM EST
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sorry (none / 0)

i just love VT, thats all.

BHO/HRC 08

by omar little on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:38:34 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

LOL I know. That was poor snark on my part. Just tired of Vermont being dismissed by so-called Democrats as "socialist" and thus not important to the presidential candidates. Obama will almost certainly net more delegates here than Clinton will in Rhode Island, possibly even Ohio.

by Skaje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:18:52 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Hee hee. Maybe both.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:40:10 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

I'm curious, will all the Clinton supporters who say no suprise/no story about this one, say the same thing if RI is quickly declared for HRC?

by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:08:41 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Yep.

Texas and Ohio are the big close ones everyone's watching.

by newhorizon on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:22:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Doing a little math... (none / 0)

Doing a little math with the CNN Exit polls, we can see Obama winning VT 61.84-36.60.

by Kal on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:09:12 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Some exit polls I've seen have Obama getting nearly 70% of the vote in vermont...i bet it'll be in the 60s.

by mecarr on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:09:16 PM EST

1777-1791 (none / 0)

the republic of vermont.

BHO/HRC 08

by omar little on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:09:30 PM EST

Re: 1777-1791 (none / 0)

and soon again to be an independent republic ;-)

ENOUGH!

by JDF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:33:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Why did you bother to post it? It doesn't count.

by Drummond on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:10:19 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

They will typically call it if the exit polls show more than a 20% gap, iirc. And the leaked numbers are 67-33.

by Nissl on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:11:18 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

CNN exits has it at 62% to 37%.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:13:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

San Antonio.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:22:30 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

looks like vermont told hillary to TUGWOS. ;)

"Katie, i'd like to use one of my lifelines, i'd like to phone a friend." "governor Palin"

by Doug Tuttle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:22:40 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

The Ultimate Great War of Secession?

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:34:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

didn't think anyone would get that, the book is so obscure. kudos.

"Katie, i'd like to use one of my lifelines, i'd like to phone a friend." "governor Palin"

by Doug Tuttle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:35:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I HEARD the RI is a tossup so far too... (none / 0)

....wasn't Hillary up big-time in RI just LAST week?

by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:24:18 PM EST

Re: I HEARD the RI is a tossup so far too... (none / 0)

Those numbers are pretty unreliable. Lets just wait and see before getting too hopeful about RI. Although an upset there would be pretty fantastic.

by HSTruman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:27:51 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

why does it take so long to tabulate the votes? it's not like texas or california.

"Katie, i'd like to use one of my lifelines, i'd like to phone a friend." "governor Palin"

by Doug Tuttle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:26:53 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Sure is a lot of wishful thinking here but Barack is only getting 53% in VT, HIllary 45%. If that holds, the split will be more like 8 to 7 or 9 to 6.

OH polls about to close.

by Nobama on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:28:46 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

about 1000 votes counted, in one county. clinton had 48% in WI for a few minutes too.

"Katie, i'd like to use one of my lifelines, i'd like to phone a friend." "governor Palin"

by Doug Tuttle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Lord, only 900 votes have been counted in VT in one rural county. Not enough to make any prediction on the split.

by mecarr on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

No media outlet would call the race without a sizable exit poll margin.

8 points isn't a sizable exit poll margin.

You lose.

UNITY!

by The Great Gatsby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:42:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ohio! (none / 0)

...Chuck Todd is looking at the #s. in Ohio. Obama COULD lose the popular vote, but still win in delegates depending on how much he kicks tail in regions.

The best she can do is 5 delegates in terms of gain, but HE could actually GAIN 1 delegate with a pouplar vote (overall) loss!!

by a gunslinger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:29:50 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Beautiful.

50 states do count.

by bigdavefromqueens on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:31:08 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

CNN exits has it at 51/48 for Clinton in Ohio.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:31:47 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Sorry but once again 51/48 after all that happened in the past three days is NOT a good result for Clinton.

by Benjaminomeara on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:33:29 PM EST
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Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

are you kidding? If Clinton wins by three we will be hearing about all she had to overcome and that her campaign had internals that showed Obama up 5 over the weekend.

ENOUGH!

by JDF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:35:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton underperforming in OH? (none / 0)

Public polls always showed a Clinton lead in Ohio.

http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php
Pollster's last figure was +7 for Clinton

Also +7 for rcp http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primar y-263.html

by mainelib on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:52:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Wow, exit polls are in agreement: No blowout in Ohio for Hillary...NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd on MSNBC points out that Hillary Clinton's delegate spread in Ohio, assuming she wins the popular vote narrowly, could be as large as +5 or as narrow as.. -1..if Obama runs up the margins in the Cleveland-area districts held by Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones.

by mecarr on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:33:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

CBS News... (none / 0)

Exit polls at CBS news breaks the numbers to 51 Clinton, 49 Obama. These are just the votes today, though.

Ohio will go down to the wire.

by Kal on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:35:05 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

what about sandusky county? since they're still voting, they wouldn't be included in the exit polls, would they?

"Katie, i'd like to use one of my lifelines, i'd like to phone a friend." "governor Palin"

by Doug Tuttle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:37:02 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

CNN exits shows late decider's broke for Clinton.

Today: 52/46 for Clinton
Last three days: 59/41 for Clinton

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:38:12 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

This is in Ohio.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:38:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

Here's an interesting note from the exit polls:

VT: Most important issue Economy 40%, Iraq 38%, Health Care 19%.

OH: Most important issue Economy 58%, Iraq 19%, Health Care 19%.

Makes a big difference.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:42:44 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Vermont (none / 0)

I don't think Obama winning Vermont disturbs anyone's calculations but if he wins more delegates there than she nets in Ohio, well, that's something.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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