Consider it a leading indicator, if you will: a new poll out from Gallup shows some interesting numbers from the Presidential race worth looking at in some detail.
A new Gallup Panel survey finds a majority of both Republicans and Democrats saying Barack Obama has a better chance than Hillary Clinton of defeating Republican John McCain in the November presidential election. The survey was conducted March 24-27, interviewing a nationally representative sample of 1,005 Gallup Panel members. Democrats were asked whether Clinton or Obama has the better chance of defeating McCain in November: 59% say Obama does; 30% say Clinton. [Emph. added]
Republicans agree with the Democratic majority's assessment, that Obama is a stronger challenge to McCain, by 64% to 22%.
What it all means, and more >>>
The most obvious conclusion from this poll is that Obama has put the Wright flap behind him. That conclusion is also supported by his now-steady lead over Clinton across polls - Gallup, Rasmussen - and to a lesser extent by his strengthening against John McCain (whom, also per Gallup, Obama has now caught, moving into a statistical tie of 47-46 with a 2% MoE, n=4,394).
This is in and of itself a heaping of bad news for the Clinton campaign. What's especially problematic, however, is that this lop-sided result comes at a perilous time for her campaign. Gallup adds some analysis:
[T]he poll shows there is a fairly widely held belief among party supporters -- including a plurality of Clinton supporters -- that the ongoing campaign is hurting their chances of winning in November. It seems unlikely those attitudes would improve much going forward, particularly if the tone of the Democratic campaign remains negative.
Specifically, 48% of Clinton's supporters say the ongoing campaign is hurting the party, while 40% disagree.
The danger for Hillary's campaign is clear: by two to one, Democrats already think her opponent would make the better standard-bearer. Almost half of her supporters think the campaign is damaging their party's chance for November. This creates a real risk - I would argue that it's already happening - that she will bleed support based simply on general election concerns. Anecdotal evidence of slowing fundraising doesn't help that narrative, either. Note that she continues to poll support substantially in excess (43%) of the number of Democrats who think she'd be a better general election candidate (30%).
That support may break away, and quickly. Better update your electability talking points concern spam, Clinton supporters :-)
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