TEXAS IS HILL COUNTRY!

Clinton wins Texas. What a headline. And just in time.

Oh, and here's a line from Clinton in Ohio this morning:

"I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. Sen. John McCain has a lifetime of experience that he'd bring to the White House. And Sen. Obama has a speech he gave in 2002."

A Clinton popular vote win combined with a delegate loss (particularly if it's due to the caucus) probably is a net benefit for Hillary.  Her only real chance to win the nomination is to somehow persuade the public and especially the superdelegates that the pledged delegate totals are suspect due to bizarre allocation rules and that the results from all those caucus states do not truly reflect the will of the people.  A Texas result that reinforces both of those memes, even if it meant she lost more ground in the delegate race, actually helps her explain that argument, the only one she really has left.

Another nail-biter, man I love elections.  Yippy-aye-ay.

by how much did the internals show him winning new hampshire ?

AA's have not exceeded 2004 turn out. They are just voting overwhelmingy for BO.

Look at the exits from 2004 in the Dem primary and then look at the exits from the 2008 primary. AA's are not voting in greater numbers; they are just voting more overwhelmingly for one candidate. To think that AA's in Texas, who comprised 21% of the population, will now comprise 35% of the population is not logical.

However, the demographic that has been exceeding the 2004 exits is Hispanics. I would watch this number to guage how HRC's night goes. If Hispanic's can push close to 30% of the voting demographic, she has a good shot at winning the popular vote.

I doubt anyone other than those in the inner circle of a campaign have actual access to the true internals.

He would be campaigning HARD in Ohio today if he was that far behind.

If weekend polls really meant anything, we would be talking about how to re-elect John Kerry.

The polls always tighten up near the end, and weekend polls always are disproven on election day.

So, don't go by the last polls...  look at turnout tomorrow... that will be the key!

Nowhere near the 20%+ differentials of a couple weeks ago, and not enough to eat into Obama's lead.  

Assuming they essentially tie tomorrow, and with Obama up 150ish delegates, how large do Clinton's victories in the upcoming states have to be to tie the race back up by the convention?

I'm so torn. Do I make a "so, does Texas count again if she wins?" comment? Or something snarky like "I thought only Obamabots thrived on 'hope.'"

I could try to make the salient "tie goes to the runner" comment, the runner being Obama for closing in, yet again, on a prohibitive frontrunner... but then would I be accused of "moving the goalposts off the field?" (Which is another potential snark I could make on all this Hillary bliss.)

But I'll just let it go because Obama had maybe the worst news cycle of his campaign today -- what with the Rezko trial, the Canada stuff, the polls and the general adoption of Hillary's "media hates me so be meaner to Obama" zeitgeist (literally "acne-covered TV ghost") by the very same meanie media.

Plus, Hillary dodged any meaningful fallout from her Bizarre 60 Minutes quote. And that disasterous Penn interview? Could have dominated any other day...

All the people wondering if Obama can withstand bad news, here's the test. With no late news coming his way, Obama will have to face another day of this narrative of what "winning" would be for Hllary. (Already the discussion is more about what Hillary needs to survive more than what Obama needs to win -- which could go either way.)

So far, Obama hasn't done too well. They should have been ahead of this Rezko stuff well into the weekend, a friday dump would have been much better. And even though the Canada stuff is overblown by 10, he's had to be on the "explaining himself" side, which, fairly or not, is always the loosing side. (And has been where Hillary has landed most other days, which is more to blame than any ridiculous media conspiracy.)

So, C- performance for Obama today, (Plouf got a needed jibe in with the goalposts comment, saving them from a "D," and it's getting play) after weeks of As. And combined with the SNL hype (the performance itself, notsogood), an A+ for Clinton in the clutch, who had been bopping between Bs and Ds all month.

So, congrats Hillary's people! Enjoy tonight's daily show!

Snark returns tomorrow.

Viva Democracy, drained of all spirit!

-e

obama will blow her out in wyoming and mississippi
so much for the comeback kid

unless those states dont matter

Don't forget that early voting has favored Obama by around 12%. So while is momentum may be stalled now, he had it a few days ago when voters were voting early.

i think what hasn't been talked about is who actually votes early? is it old folks, women, men, "minorities"?

My guess is older folks are most likely to vote early en masse, especially those retired.

in any regards, I would be willing to bet that early voters will break for Hillary at a higher clip. I would expect Hillary's lead when numbers are first reported to be large in Ohio (+10-14).

Another thing to note is how urban districts might break. Expect Ohio's inner cities to break at a much, much higher percentage for Obama (less latinos and more blacks). The demographics for these states are incredibly different.

Hypothetically, a 58(c)-42(o) split in the beginning of the night (OH) could end up 52(c)-48(o) whereas in Texas, high latino populations in major cities should stabalize any potential swing in favor of Obama. Well, barring a situation where much of El Paso or South Dallas hold out until the 11th hour to report.

To clarify - those percentages are of the AA's or Hispanics that vote in a primary, not of the entire population. I did have voters say they weren't going to vote in either primary

I think the Primary vote (which is what is being polled) will be close...probably Obama or Clinton either within 3-5.  We can ALL agree on that, right?

In the Caucasses, however, Obama...because of his $$ and resultant ground game...will clean up.

He will likely end the day with a net gain of 10-20 delgates.  Clinton will stave off INSTANT self-reomval, but the words of Bill Richardson will follow her around.  If she doesn't set a timeline for tieing up in delegates, the rest of the DNC elders will slowly place more pressure on her to drop out.

When you see Al Gore or Jimmy Carter come out and endorse...you'll know she waited TOO LONG.

I personally fear for the Clinton brand. She is  risking a lot by staying in too long.

Congratulations Clinton people.  It looks like your candidate has made a comeback.  Well you can say goodbye to some key seats in the House now and don't count Colorado or Minnesota a pickup in the Senate anymore because it aint happening with Hillary at the top of the ticket.