Long primary; Blessing or curse?

Rancor, acrimony, divisiveness, hurt feelings.  This bitterly contested nomination campaign is drawing blood on both sides, and may be costing us the presidency.  But maybe not.

Paul Begala appeared on CNN earlier this week and was asked about the damage the long primary was doing, and his answer was remarkable because of what he didn't say.  To paraphrase - We are seeing record breaking numbers of new Democratic party voter registrations, and party organization being built up where none existed before.  Having this party apparatus and hordes of new voters in place come November will mitigate any advantage McCain has had by being allowed to sit in the cheap seats eating popcorn.  I had expected him to say something about this all being a positive for Hillary, his candidate, but he only talked about party building.  He only said that Hillary is committed to the race until all the votes are counted, which means at least through Puerto Rico.  

That means contested primaries all the way to the end, which means party building in all those late states that have never bothered to do so before.  My question is this:  If Hillary or Barack (take your pick which one) concedes in mid-June, and is able to completely convince her/his supporters that this is the right thing to do, best for the party, best for the country, best chance to win in November, etc., will the long fight have ended up being a good thing after all?

Discuss...



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Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (none / 0)

The answer is yes.  But Hillary wont't do that.  She is already promising a credentials fight on the floor of the convention.


by XoFalconXo on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 04:44:56 PM EST

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (none / 0)

But what if it is Barack?  What if, despite all evidence to the contrary, Hillary runs the table going forward?  Will Obama's supporters listen to him if he tells them it's over, and cheerfully support the nominee?  

If it's Hillary, I honestly think we would crawl through glass if she told us to, so we would close ranks around Barack if that's what she wanted...


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 04:58:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (none / 0)

If Hillary leads in pledged delegates come June, absolutely I'd support her and would expect Obama to do just what you're asking.  If he doesn't, he wouldn't be the candidate I know him to be.


by XoFalconXo on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 05:07:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (none / 0)

Very true, I fully expect each of them to actively support the other.  What concerns me are their followers.  Are we so far gone that we would really sit on our hands, ignoring the sensible pleas of our candidate to vote for the nominee, no matter who it is?


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 05:21:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (none / 0)

I doubt it.  I felt the same way about Bradley in 2000.  I couldn't stand Gore during the primaries.  Come the Fall, though, I was behind him 100%.  I expect most of this to go away once we have a nominee and people start seriously considering what a McCain presidency would mean.


by XoFalconXo on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 05:28:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (2.00 / 1)

I have said it earlier  , the elites , the media pundits and obama allies would try there best to get here out of the race before Pennsylvania because they fear what would happen in that state.

Her support is firm in Pennsylvania and if I were you I won't bother with it.

She is not going anywhere


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 04:53:46 PM EST

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (none / 0)

Well, lori you and I are serious Clintonistas.  What happens if she wipes up the floor with him between now and June?  If Obama comes out and says to his supporters, enough, it's time to unify the party so we can win, will they do it?  Will we?


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 05:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (2.00 / 1)

I would caution about making too many "assumptions" about this particular presidential election.  So far, most assumptions have been wrong.

We are assuming that we are hurting the party in November. But who is doing the "assuming"? Mostly Obama supporters who want Hillary out, or vice-versa.

Truth is, we don't know what will happen in the next 6 months.  


by WolfmanJack on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 04:54:54 PM EST

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (2.00 / 1)

The race is probably great for downticket contests because of the infrastructure buildup.  Whether it's good for our presidential chances remains to be seen.


by rfahey22 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 05:14:48 PM EST

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (2.00 / 2)

Don't mean to be a centrist here, but I think it is both bad and good.  First, the bad.  The long primary fight is bad only in that each side's heavy partisans have hardened their position against the other so much that it will be hard to get them back to not only supporting the other candidate in the general election, but losing them to McCain.  Right now, you have between 20% - 25% of their supporters saying that they will not support the other in the general election.  What makes it that more damaging is that many of those 20-25% are saying they would vote for McCain over the Democratic nominee.  Any of those people who do that are basically giving 2 votes away.  One to McCain and subtracting one from the Democratic nominee.  If, for instance, those people simply sat out the presidential race, it is only 1 vote lost which, in theory, could be made up by increased turnout.

Now, the good.  This long fight is definitely energizing Democratic voters throughout all 50 states.  That can not be over emphasized.  Many of those states have basically been ignored for 25 years as unwinable and therefore not worth the effort.  If we've learned anything since Howard Dean took over the DNC, it is that building the Democratic Party everywhere is not only necessary but productive as well.  Without the 50 state strategy, would we have won as many Congressional races in 2006 and won special elections like IL-14 this year?  I don't think so.  The primary season has forced the candidates to build organizations in all the states and ID'ing these voters now, means we don't have to start from scratch in September and October.  


A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt
by minvis on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 05:17:07 PM EST

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (2.00 / 1)

Well said.  Here's hoping the larger voter turnout will offset any advantage McCain gets from the shorter GE season...


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 05:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Paul Begala is a shill for Hill (none / 0)

What has the extended primary cost us? Look around. McCain rising in the polls. Intra-party war. How about the cost? It's going to cost each of the candidates $100 million or more to finish this out. All money that could be used against McCain. I like Begala, a lot, but in any question where one answer coincides with what the Hillary camp wants, that's where he's going.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:02:41 PM EST

Re: Paul Begala is a shill for Hill (2.00 / 1)

Hey Trav.  Uh, rather than attack Begala, can we stay on task here?  I thought this would be a legitimate topic for discussion, and others seem to think there are pluses and minuses to this whole thing, as I do.  The primary is not helping either candidate at this point, but the downticket effect may be something worthwhile, don't you think?  All that party organization for the Congressional and state races?

If Hillary comes forward and convinces the most rabid of her fans that she thinks it best that she concede and we support Obama, we will do it, is that what you wanted to hear?  The question is, would you do the same if things were reversed?


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:11:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No. I don't. (none / 0)

First, it's you that injected Begala into this topic, and it's fair to point out your source is a shill.

In fact though, I'll bet it's hurting the downticket effect. I know that myself, and others, have told the DNC, DCCC, and DSCC, that we won't give them a cent until we see what the superdelegates are going to do regarding this primary. I'm betting a lot of others are doing the same.

Second, it doesn't help downticket races at all if we lose the presidency, and every day this goes on we lose ground in that fight. You can see it in the polls, and as we keep talking about ways to jimmy the process so Hillary can win, we're losing credibility in the party. The real bump to the down ticket races will be when the nominee can campaign with the downticket candidates, which obviously can't happen today.

So no. I think this mess is destroying the Democratic party more every day it goes on. It is still salvageable at this point, but not for long.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:27:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Long primary; Blessing or curse? (2.00 / 1)

Blessing and curse -  What's wrong in having every vote count? Wouldn't that be the democratic way (including MI AND FL).  Hillary should go all the way- I expect that - she's not a quitter - the democratic elites are the quitters and that's why the repubs always win frankly.  She's the one that has a legitimate chance to beat McCain. The problem I see is the supporters.  I for one will not unite (Not even if Hillary personally asks me to vote for O).  I will vote for McCain period.
So, there in lies the curse.  Obama is such a damaged candidate my conscience would not let me vote for him- no way- no how.
by tricia19 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:38:56 PM EST


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