Let's assume we get through the nominating process and a nominee is crowned; let's say it's Senator Obama.

Senator Obama's Road to 270

Based off of current polling, he carries traditionally Democratic strongholds such as California, New York, et cetera, and McCain keeps Republican strongholds in the South and West.

The key, of course, is in the swing states. With the "firm" states Obama holds, by my figuring, he stands at about 225 electoral votes, while McCain's "firm" states are at about 200. The swing states in my model here are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida, a total of 113 electoral votes. Polling was close in a few other places, like North Carolina and North Dakota, but I gave them to the Republicans based on past trends. Likewise, Obama held a slight (but statistically registering) lead in Michigan, and based on past trends, I gave it to him.

Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado all poll well for Obama versus McCain. They each have mixed results from past voting. But let's grant them to Obama, which brings his total up to 246. Connecticut and New Hampshire also seem likely to be pro-Obama- he polls better there versus McCain than Clinton does (though in Connecticut, Clinton still leads McCain, just within the margin of error), so we'll grant them to Obama as well.

The result? 257 electoral college votes. Within spitting distance of the goal. But as we saw in 2000, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. This means that a win for Obama in any of the remaining swing states- Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, or Ohio- will put him at or over 270. Virginia puts him right AT 270, but hey, that's all it takes.

Now, this shows Obama's positives and negatives. Virginia polls well for Obama, he is either within the margin of error or slightly ahead of McCain. Virginia has traditionally been Republican (since the 1960s), but that has reversed in the last two to four years. Virginians elected Senator Jim Webb in 2006, and Democrats have been increasing their presence in the state congress in the same time period.

However, all Obama has to do is fail to win just one of these states, and McCain runs away with the Presidency, 283-257. The way to address this is to ensure the swing states that are firm or likely Obama stay that way, and to campaign heavily and build a rapport with the people of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. If Senator Obama gets the nomination, Senator Clinton will hopefully join him in helping the process along, and she would do much to help shore up support in these states.

The end result- Obama can get 270, but his chances improve dramatically with the help of Senator Clinton and a unified Democratic party.

Now, let's take a look at Senator Clinton.

Senator Clinton's Road to 270

Again, Senator Clinton performs well in traditionally Democratic strongholds, vis a vis McCain's performance in the Republicans'. However, based off the polling, Senator Clinton's "firm" rating, based off the polling data, stands at 188 electoral votes, compared to McCain's 223. However, some of the states the polls consider "swing"- Michigan, for example- would almost certainly go for Senator Clinton. So I'll throw that one to her, which is a total of 205 electoral votes.

Senator Clinton loses Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa in these polls versus Obama, but picks up strong showings in West Virginia, Arkansas. The result? Clinton's swing states are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Connecticut, and New Hampshire.

While close, polling suggests McCain would take New Hampshire and possibly Connecticut. The last Republican that won a vote in Connecticut was Bush I, who was a longtime resident of that state. Bill Clinton ended an almost twenty-year streak of Republican voting. If we go off the polling for this go-round, at this point in time, it goes for McCain. That's now 234/205, advantage McCain.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are both right on the edge for McCain/Clinton; Clinton leads versus McCain in Minnesota, and vice versa in Wisconsin, but both are very slim in each direction. We'll give them to Clinton for argument's sake, and that's now 225/234, advantage McCain.

Now, Arkansas and West Virginia, as we said, could easily go for Clinton. Polling is close right now. Let's give them both to Clinton, and the total tips to her advantage, 236 to 234. The three states remaining... Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.

For one possible scenario, let's figure since McCain is popular with Hispanics, probably just as much as Clinton, and that Clinton is moreso with working-class "Reagan Democrats" and lower-income voters, we'll give McCain Florida and Clinton Pennsylvania.

And it's Ohio- again. The same as in 2004. So Clinton has to make sure she can combat McCain's popularity with independents, moderates, and Hispanics, can keep Arkansas and West Virginia (without which, even if she gets Ohio, she loses 266-272), and more importantly, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

So the result is each of them can win, and each can lose. They have their own strengths and weaknesses. Obama's key strength is to restructure the map, so to speak, winning previously Republican-trending states, where Clinton has her strength running a more "traditional" Democratic campaign, trying to pick up a couple of swing states, plus one (or possibly two) of the Ohio/Pennsylvania/Florida trifecta.

The point here, I suppose, is that while both candidates have a chance of winning by playing their own "game", neither has a realistic shot without the support of the entire Democratic party, working towards a common goal. I've mostly ignored possible scandals that have occurred/may occur on either side in figuring these numbers, but the most destructive thing to either candidate will be if the rift in the part is not healed by November.

That's the easiest way to ensure a McCain victory- disunity and animosity. Keep that in mind, folks, no matter what happens with this primary season.