Clinton's Path To The Nomination May Run Through North Carolina
The other day I saw Chuck Todd on TV speaking about a Bill Clinton event in North Carolina during which the former president told North Carolina voters, as he had done to Texas voters weeks before, that it's in their hands, that if Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina she'll be the nominee. Chuck Todd's assessment of that statement: "and you know what, he'd be right."
John Heilemann nails why North Carolina is crucial to Hillary Clinton's path to the nomination:
Why is the Tarheel State ostensibly so important? Because, of the nine states (including Puerto Rico) still waiting to hold primaries, it's the only one in which African-Americans make up north of 10 percent of the population -- thus it's the last opportunity for HRC to score a ringing, unequivocal upset against BHO. (Indeed, blacks are expected to make up as much as a third of the Democratic primary electorate in North Carolina.)
A win there would not change the pledged delegate math terribly for Clinton, but rather would give her a psychological boost, particularly among the undeclared superdelegates.
...it would surely buttress the argument that she and her people are adamantly making to the remaining undecided superdelegates: that buyer's remorse is setting in among Democrats as they learn more about her rival; that they are slowly waking up to the fact that she and not Obama would be the stronger runner against John McCain.
A point that is made all the more stark by a quick glance at First Read's breakdown of the pledged and super delegate situation assuming nothing surprising happens between now until June.
If the remaining contests split up "as expected" meaning Clinton wins her base states (PA, KY, WV etc.) and Obama wins his base states (NC, OR, MT etc.) and the two split Indiana down the middle, the two campaigns will likely split those 566 delegates right down the middle 283-283 (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). This means Obama would need 34% of the uncommitted superdelegates to hit the magic 2024 number, while Clinton would need 72% of the uncommitted Supers to hit 2024.
This is not how Clinton wants June to end, which is why the Clinton campaign has dispatched Ace Smith, who spear-headed Clinton's California and Texas victories, to North Carolina and not Pennsylvania. While PA is touted as must-win for Clinton, it's actually become a will-win and as Heilemann argues compellingly, North Carolina is becoming Clinton's latest must-win.
Which makes the shift in the state just since last week such bad news for Clinton. According to the latest survey from NC-based Public Policy Polling, Obama has gone from a virtual tie to a significant lead in just one week.
| Candidate | March 24 | March 17 | March 3 | RCP 3-poll Ave. |
| Obama | 55 | 44 | 47 | 50.3 |
| Clinton | 34 | 43 | 43 | 38.3 |
| Undecided | 11 | 13 | 10 |
If such a shift seems unbelievable, well, it's because it is, but not because, as Josh Marshall suspects, last week's poll was an outlier. Rather, as PPP's blog reminds us:
...we are changing our universe from folks who voted in the 2004 or 2006 primaries to folks who voted in the 2004 primary, 2006 primary, or 2006 general. That's who we called for our very accurate Democratic polls in Wisconsin, Texas, and Ohio. Given that it's clear now we will have a high intensity primary in North Carolina as well it seems like the time is right to make that change here.
That's not to say that a 21 point lead for Obama is inaccurate necessarily (although no other poll taken in March has had him up by double digits,) it's just to say that there are other factors that account for his 7-day 20 point shift. But as the poll analysis makes clear, had the methodology remained the same, Obama likely would still have put some distance between himself and Clinton thanks both to his speech on race as well as several appearances in the state over the past few days.
I suspect that the reality of Obama's lead lies somewhere south of 20 points but no matter what the true number, considering the importance of the state for Clinton as well as Obama's advantage there, to say that Ace Smith has his work cut out for him is an understatement.
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