The facts of what is already being called Tuzla-gate are well known and quickly described; JedReport on Daily Kos has a satisfyingly comprehensive roundup of the issues. Briefly, Hillary Clinton made claims, as part of her larger argument to competence and experience, to have come under hostile fire at Tuzla airport in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the aftermath of that country's civil war; these claims are false as made, as even the Clinton campaign has now admitted.
The story of Tuzla-gate, meanwhile, is spreading over the media like an inkblot. This is no mere campaign gaffe; it's potentially a game-changer of the first magnitude.
Why so? Over the fold >>>
It is Hillary's bad luck, surely, that the various segments of Tuzla-gate are all preserved on video: her speech announcing the false claim, her repetition of it sometime later, and the original footage - also available, for Kos boycotteers, here and here - clearly demonstrate that her claims to having been in danger were false and, at best, a reckless exaggeration that just so happens to tie in seamlessly with her larger campaign narrative. That will strengthen the hand of those unkind enough to call this a calculated lie.
Two factors make Tuzla-gate a dangerous phenomenon to a campaign already reeling under falling poll numbers and a lack of cash. One, it amplifies the prior media narrative casting doubt on Hillary Clinton's claims to have, for example, contributed meaningfully to the peace process in the British province of Ulster. The idea that she is exaggerating her experience was, for example, fodder for a recent New York Times front-page story.
Two, it reinvigorates public perception, uneasily dormant until recently, that Hillary has problems with telling the truth. For example, Gallup released a poll on March 18th showing that only 44% of Americans consider Senator Clinton to be honest and trustworthy. By contrast, 67% of Americans rate John McCain as honest; 63%, Barack Obama. That strategic disadvantage, a twenty-point gap either way, has just been given new and powerful life - by Tuzla-gate. Devastating in a general election? Absolutely. The campaign ads practically write themselves; this especially after Barack Obama's recent extraordinary, and extraordinarily honest, speech on race.
Ah, you might now argue, who really cares what the population at large says, when what matters right now is the smaller universe of Democratic primary voters? And you'd have a point, except for this: Democrats themselves aren't all that meaningfully different from the rest of the nation.
Ben Smith, quoting Kos quoting MS exit polls:
Kos spots this stunner in the Mississippi exits:Is Clinton honest and trustworthy? 52 Yes, 48 No
Obama's at 70-30. And this is among Democrats.
And now all of that perception, hardened through years of carefully nurtured ambiguity, is exploding over the headlines and eating its way deeper into the consciousness of voters.
Another self-inflicted injury? Of course. A campaign-ender? Perhaps, but probably not. Helpful to her campaign? No, not at all. Not when one of the biggest issues before the American public, after eight years of derangement and dishonesty in Washington, is our ability to trust our government.
Can Americans trust Hillary? In fairness, we probably can; at least I think so. But Tuzla-gate makes that case harder to make. And when even half of Democrats, give or take a percentage point or two, consider her to be dishonest, Hillary's already steep climb to the nomination just got a few degrees steeper.
The super-delegates are watching.
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