Most people (like myself) can't help but to like Obama and give him the benefit of the doubt.

Does this mean he'll make a wonderful President? Not necessarily, but it doesn't mean Hillary will either.

There's nothing to suggest that Clinton can possibly get the string of 60-40 wins she'd need to make this competitive again in the delegate race.

He has taken the hardest shots that the Vast Clinton Surrogate Conspiracy has to offer, and he's still standing and thriving.  And she just doesn't have the CoH to match what he's going to be able to do on field and GOTV in these next few states.

I think you mean Obama is toast and this race is over and he's a racist and everyone hates him and if he wins McCain will win 99% of the vote and the Democratic policy will be abolished.

I know this is true, because I read it in the diaries.

eh, I think had Hillary not underestimated Caucuses she would have been the nominee

so its less that he beat it, and more that Hillary made a strategic mistake.

Obviously, whatever side gets a good poll a post will go up.  Frankly, we won't know anything until Pennsylvania votes and NC and IN shortly thereafter.  Probably, polls showing either one up at this point in the democratic primary aren't that relevant. The polls that matter are ones that measure independents and those up against McCain.

Andrew Sullivan just posted the full Wright 9/11 sermon.  I'm going to place it below so you can see those quotes in context.  You may not like the sermon as a whole or you might.  But I think it's worth reading - and passing along for others to read -- it in full.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/th e_daily_dish/2008/03/the-wright-post.htm l
    "Every public service of worship I have heard about so far in the wake of the American tragedy has had in its prayers and in its preachments, sympathy and compassion for those who were killed and for their families, and God's guidance upon the selected Presidents and upon our war machine, as they do what they do and what they gotta do -- paybacks.

   There's a move in Psalm 137 from thoughts of paying tithes to thoughts of paying back, A move, if you will from worship to war, a move in other words from the worship of th God of creation to war against those whom God Created.  And I want you to notice very carefully this next move.  One of the reasons this Psalm is rarely read, in its entirety, because it is a move that spotlights the insanity of the cycle of violence and the cycle of hatred.

   Look at the verse; Look at the verse; Look at verse nine:  [rising voice] "Happy shall they be who take your little ones and dash them against the rocks."[lower voice]  The people of faith are the rivers of Babylon.  How shall we sing the Lord's song?  If I forget the order ... The people of faith,  have moved from the hatred of armed enemies [rising voice]--these soldiers who captured the king; those soldiers who slaughtered his son, that put his eyes out; those soldiers who sacked the city, burned, burned the towns, the burned the temple,  burned the towers, they have moved from the hatred of [loudest voice] armed enemies to the hatred of unarmed innocents -- [low voice] the babies, the babies.

   Blessed are they who dash your baby's brains against a rock.  And that,  my beloved,  is a dangerous place to be, yet that is where the people of faith are in the 551BC, and that is where far too many people of faith are in 2001 AD.  We have moved from the hatred of armed enemies to the hatred of unarmed innocents.  We want revenge, we want paybacks, and we don't care who gets hurt in the process.

   Now I asked the Lord, what should our response be in light of such an unthinkable act, but before I share with you what the Lord shared with me I want to give you one of my little faith footnotes.

   Visitors, I often give little faith footnotes, so that our members don't lose sight of the big picture, let me give you a faith footnote. Turn to your neighbor and say, "Faith footnote."  [Voices: "Faith footnote"]

   [Begin faith footnote]

   I heard Ambassador Peck on an interview yesterday.  Did anybody else see him or hear him, he was on Fox News. This is a white man, and he was upsetting the Fox News commentators to no end.   He pointed out, (Did you see him, John?) --a white man-- he pointed out-- an ambassador-- that what Malcolm X said when he got silenced by Elijah Mohammad was in fact true, America's chickens are coming home to roost.

   We took this country, by terror, away from the Sioux, the Apache, the Arrowak (phonetic) the Comanche, the Arapajo, the Navajo.  Terrorism--we took Africans from their country to build our way of ease and kept them enslaved and living in fear.  Terrorism.  We bombed Grenada and killed innocent civilians -- babies, non-military personnel.  We bombed the black civilian community of Panama with Stealth Bombers and killed unarmed teenagers, and toddlers, pregnant mothers  and hard working father.  [fullest voice]  We bombed Khadafi, his home and killed his child.  Blessed be they who bash your children's head agains the rocks.

   [fullest voice]  We bombed Iraq, we killed unarmed civilians trying to make a living.  We bombed the plant in Sudan to payback for the attack on our embassy -- killed hundreds of hard working people --mothers and fathers, who left home to go that day, not knowing they'd never get back home.  [Even fuller voice] We bombed Hiroshima, we bombed Nagasaki, and we nuked far more than the thousands in New York and the Pentagon and we never batted an eye.  Kids playing in the playground, mothers picking up children after school -- civilians not soldiers.  People just trying to make it day by day.  We have supported state terrorism against the Palestinians and South Africa and now we are indignant?  Because the stuff we have done overseas is brought back into our own front yard.

   America's chickens are coming home, to roost.  Violence begets violence.  Hatred begets hatred, and terrorism begets terrorism.

   [lower voice] A White ambassador said that, y'all, not a black militant.  Not a Reverend who preaches about racism, an ambassador whose eyes are wide open, and whose trying to get us to wake up, and move away from this dangerous precipice upon which we are now poised.  The ambassador said that the people we have wounded don't have the military capability we have, but they do have individuals who are willing to die and take thousands with them, and we need to come to grips with that.

   Let me stop my faith footnote right there, and ask you to think about that over the next few weeks if God grants us that many days.  Turn back to your neighbor, and say, "Footnote is over."  [Voices:  "Footnote is over."]

   [End Faith Footnote]

   [Gentle voice]  Now, now.  C'mon back to my question to the Lord, "What should our response be right now. In light of such an unthinkable act.  I asked the Lord that question Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

   I was stuck in Newark, New Jersey.  No flights were leaving La Guardia, JFK, or Newark Airport.  On the day tht the FAA opened up the airports to bring into the destinations of cities those flights that had been diverted because of the hijacking, a scare in New York close all three regional airports and I couldn't even get her for Mr. Radford's father's funeral.  And I asked God, "What should our response be?

   I saw pictures of the incredible.  People jumping from the 110th floor; people jumping from the roof because the stair wells and elevators above the 89th floor were gone-- no more.  Black people, jumping to a certain death; people holding hands jumping; people on fire jumping.  [plaintiff high voice]  And I asked the Lord, "What should our response be?" I read what the people of faith felt in 551BC.  But this is a different time, this is a different enemy, a different world,  a different terror.   This is a different reality.  What should our response be, and the Lord showed me three things.  Let me share them with you quickly and I'm gonna leave you alone to think about the faith footnote.

   Number one:  The Lord showed me that this is a time for self-examination. [cheers] As I sat 900 miles away from my family and my community of faith, two months after my own father's death, God showed me that this  was a time for me to examine my relationship with God.  MY own relationship with God-- personal relationship with God.

   I submit to you that it is the same for you. Folk flocked to the church in New Jersey last week, you know that foxhole-religion syndrome kicked in, that emergency chord religion, you know that little red box you pull in emergency?  It showed up in full force.  Folk who aint thought about coming to church in years, were in church last week.  I heard that mid-week prayer services all over this country which are poorly attended fifty-one week a year were jam packed all over the nation the week of the hijacking the 52nd week.  [inaudible]

   But the Lord said, this aint the time for you to be examining other folks relationship this is a time of self examination.  But the Lord said, "How is "our" relationship doing Jeremiah?  How often do you talked to me personally, how often do you let me talk to you privately?  How much time do you spend trying to get right with me, or do you spend all your time trying to get other folk right?

   This is a time for me to examine my own relationship with God.   Is it real or is it fake?  Is it forever or is it for show?  Is is something that you do for the sake of the public or is it something that you do  for the sake of eternity?  [voice rising]  This is a time for me to examine my own, and a time for you to examine your own relationship with God -- self examination.

While Obama supporters fall all over themselves extolling the campaign's "turnaround" following the Wright controversy (evidenced by a Gallup poll published today showing Obama up by three,) I'll just toss out a contrary poll from Scott Rasmussen that shows Hillary up by two -- a swing of three in her direction.

And that's not all.
On Saturday, Obama's favorable ratings slipped a little further--46% favorable, 51% unfavorable. Before the Pastor Problem became big news, Obama was viewed favorably by 52%. One month ago, he was viewed favorably by 56%. McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 43%. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable.
The last time he was even close to this territory was November 20, 2007 when his favorables were at 44%, his unfavorables at 50%, and not a whole lot of people knew much about him.

Take a look at this picture.  Its the Gallup tracking poll since Jan. 3.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008. aspx

We've been at dead even for seven weeks.

Nationally, Hillary Clinton now holds a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 46% to 44%. Before the story broke about his former Pastor, Obama led Clinton by eight percentage points (see recent daily results).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/daily_presidential_tra cking_poll

Even more importantly, Obama's Favorability-Unfavorability ratings have gone from 56%-41% a month ago to 46%-51% now, a swing of 20 points.

It seems to be Obama is still dropping like a stone.

Are tracking poll swings front page material?

i think you should stop being petulant.

As a front-page blogger and myDD steward, I think you have a responsibility to be more balanced.

I think it's worth pointing out that Obama's slip in the polls over the past week has been due to one thing, and one thing only--  the Pastor Wright flap.  Hillary Clinton has done absolutely nothing to advance her candidacy.  She spent a good part of the week wandering around Michigan, grumbling about Party rules and delegate allocation.

This is more evidence that her campaign advisors just don't get it--  If you are running for the Presidency, it's a good idea to act Presidential.
Standing around and letting your surrogates pound your opponent with a five year-old video tape of a preacher doesn't put you on the road to the White House.

Under difficult circumstances, Obama stood up and spoke to the nation about a challenging topic.  He followed that up with a major foreign policy address, and then won the endorsement of an important Governor and former Clinton ally and confidant.  No wonder he is regaining lost ground.

There has indeed been a turnaround since Tuesday, but it will be next week before we have a better sense of whether this is behind BO (for now).  It will come up again in the GE.

I started out neutral in this race, but have become increasingly turned off by the Clinton campaign.

The stance about voter disenfranchisement in MI and FL is just so disingenuous.  Candidates signed a pledge card affirming their knowledge that the vote wouldn't count.  People turned out anyway because of important down ballot issues.

My hope is that this ends soon--I do not want to see President McCain come next Jan.

hyperbole I'd say.  He's statistically in a dead heat with Clinton, after leading her by 8% several weeks ago.

On the other hand, after watching CNNs herioc efforts to deify the man over the past several days and demonize Hillary, I would never underestimate the ability of "The most trusted name in news" to swing public opinion and elections.

I love how there is all this talk about Clinton's statement and what he did not say (talking about Obama when talking about his wife and McCain loving this country) but no one is really talking about what Obama DID say and that is that his grandmother who he says uttered racial slurs is a "typical white person".

Fact is, for Hillary to win she has to win the remaining primaries by landslide margins.....and that isnt going to happen. The DNC isnt goign to let this go to convention for the simple reason, if they do, the party will implode. They know it......Hillary will drop out before the convention and attempt to play and become the elder statesman, less she become known as the one who destroyed the party.

This appears a little bit optimistic, doesn't it?  Gallup goes up, Rasmussen goes down... that means nothing to the states individually, which is what matters.

March 22, 2008, Boulder, CO.:

Bradley Smith, 19, a student at CU Boulder and a volunteer for the local Obama for President Campaign, claimed to a classmate while tapping a keg that there's a 99% chance that Jonathan Singer is a shill for the Obama campaign. David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, refused to comment on the allegations. Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, released a memo today on the campaign's Web site which analyzed Singer's posts on myydd.com over the last year. Using sophisitcated regression analysis, he writes that "the Obama campaign's reliance on elite bloggers continues to be demonstrated by Mr. Singer's posts. Our models indicate that after 10 straight losses by Obama to Hillary, Mr. Singer will write a post claiming that Hillary should drop out because Obama won Mississippi and Wyoming, states which are vital to his General Election strategy. And that if Bush can disenfranchise voters in Florida so can we."

I am totally disgusted.  I just learned of a blog about Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Trinity Church called http://truthabouttrinity.blogspot.com and I feel as though I can no longer trust my favorite news sources CNN and MSNBC.  Apparently the endless loop of hate from Rev. Wright was a quote from a white US Ambassador named Peck and the whole sermon iwithin context was logical, introspective and get this, loving(albeit fiery).  I am so disgusted with American media, I expect this from Fox, but not CNN and MSNBC.  I now, actually feel sorry for Rev. Wright, as he is being dumped on for purely political gain.  Somehow, I don't think God is going to like this.

Please visit http://truthabouttrinity.blogspot.com/ and you will probably feel as disgusted as I do, I feel responsible for helping to get the truth out!  Of course, I also learned that Hannity is responsible for outing this story.  Surprise!

Smart post.
And you are not lowly, my friend.
You are a good Democrat.  Stand proud and say "I'm a Hillary supporter".

You are all right, baby! LOL

Okay, maibe I should throw my opinion into it, not that it will do any good.

If, as it tends to become more and more probable Obama becomes the Democratic nominee, the following thing is going to happen.

Some organizations (you know who they are) are going to create a nice little montage video, on this video, you will first see Obama without his flag pin, then they will show a few photographs of him without his hand on his heart, then Michel Obama telling us that she never was pround of her country before, and finally Rv Wright yelling that America got what it deserved in 911 and the serie will culminate with "god damn America". Simultaneously (superimposed? In parallel?) in the background you will see the twin tower falling, courageous fire fighter rushing in, families of the victims crying... etc..

And this short ad will be haired ad nauseum in each swing states and beyond.

Obama will try to defend himself, but his best and only defense involves race, and those guys will say "It's is not about race, it is about patriotism", "YOU are talking about race", "YOU are the racist", "We don't see no race"... etc... etc...

Now if you think that Obama can overcome this in a general election, you go right ahead and vote for him.

Me? I stopped believing in Santa a long time ago, so I won't.

The polls will almost assuredly see-saw more than once between now and November.  I am pleased to see Obama bounce back so quickly.  I think Obama's speech was both necessary and moving.  I will say he does have one thing in common with his former pastor, they both can speak the truth, Barack just does it so much more tactfully and eloquently.  

I have never heard a politician just come right out there and lay it all on the table, we do hold prejudices about race, about religion, about social status, prejudices we are unwilling to admit or talk about.  Now maybe we will have that opportunity.  

I have been so impressed with this man's character and integrity since I first saw him four years ago at the Democratic Convention.  And if for some reason he is not elected, I think that would be an absolute travesty because this opportunity will not present itself again for a very long time.  

Instead, it will be a sign that this country is content to live with its prejudices, content to distrust, content to remain separate societies, content to continue living in fear.  

This time, I sincerly pray that hope finally trumps fear.    

This rather pathetic attempt by the MSM, which itself OWNS the polling outfits, to restore Senator Obama (certain to be a landslide loser in the fall) so that the #1 objective of the MSM--destroying the Clintons, is yet accomplished, will get nowhere.

We Clinton supporters have seen it all before.  Obama was supposed to win big in New Hampshire.  ALL polling firms said so, and ALL were wrong.

Obama was supposed to carry Nevada.  ALL pundits said the Culinary Workers Union was critical, and ALL pundits were wrong.

Obama was supposed to win California.  Zogby said he was surging.  Obama was clobbered in California.

Obama was supposed to carry the Texas primary.  Gallup had the candidates, at worst, tied for Obama's benefit.  Clinton carried Texas, really, no sweat--four digits, which meant overcoming a double-digit loss that Zogby's group forecasted.

Obama was supposed to be surging in Ohio.  Not even close.  Obama did terribly in my native Ohio, losing 83 of 88 counties, and an easy double-digit loss statewide.

The Kennedy endorsements and the Obama South Carolina win were supposed to work in Florida.  Floridians gave poor Obama a meagre 33% of their vote.  And yes indeed, everybody who cast ballots in Florida knew very well whom they were voting for.  It is only in Obama World, that this fact does not register.

No, in the end, voters in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, and the like, aren't going to put much stock in a speech attempting to rationalize a candidate's twenty-year relationship with a pastor who damns White America.  Obama is, very much, a product of the Pastor Wright, and most White Americans won't be buying it.

After being pelted by the entire MSM, pundits, and pollsters all year writing her epitaph, Senator Clinton is still standing tall.

The Clintons have never needed surrogates, newspapers, pundits, and even people they have themselves built up to stay loyal to them.  

Bill Clinton was written off for dead by pundits early into the Monica affair.  George Stephanopoulos, the first of several Judas Iscariots in the Clinton Campaign, argued for the "I" word--and so the ever Clinton-hating sounded the dream-beat for his impeachment.

Many a pundit thought he'd be gone in a week.  Instead, he stood firm indeed, continued to guide America through its longest reign of peace and prosperity ever, and leave office with the the longest reign of high approval of any president since JFK.

So, one should truly feel sorry for Gallup and company, still trying to salvage Obama, who hasn't won a single blue state outside his own Illinois. And who hasn't won a major state outside Illinois and the pitiful near-draw of Missouri.

And who, having been proclaimed the "star" by everybody from Bill Richardson to the Kennedys, couldn't win with Lations anywhere, and is a lost cause in the Kennedy home turf of Massachusetts.  One Obama type--Governor Patrick, with his dismal approval--is more than enough for Massachusetts voters in a lifetime.

Bill Richardson was probably the single worst presidential candidate the Democrats have ever had.  The usually fawning-for-Obama blogosphere almost universally thought he had all the allure of a stiff board.  And this is the man who is supposed to help Obama with Latinos?  What in fact is quite true is that the Clintons themselves are far more popular in New Mexico than ever is or can be Bill Richardson.

We Clinton fans know that Hillary will blow Obama away in Pennsylvania--the last major state, meaning that, aside from Illinois, Obama will be 0 for 0 in blue state America and with his meagre win in Missouri as only his claim on a big state aside from his native Illinois.  

That is truly a dismal reason for Blue America to have him as the nominee of their party.  Red State America may be his turf, but come the fall, Red State America is far more likely to be the McCain column.

So, of course Wright's anti-White commentaries made the Obama candidacy a non-starter in the fall.  But for the MSM, the 2008 campaign was never about Obama.  It was all about stopping the Clintons, and Obama was the tool.

Gallup's going to bat for the moribund Obama came as no suprise.  A week ago last Sunday the pollsters said it had little impacted his campaign.  Then the blogosphere was suddenly full of those Wright videos and the pollsters had to appear to live in reality, at least for a time.

We Clinton fans knew that both the MSM, their pundits and pollsters, would again sing the praises of Obama after a speech that working-class America (the Democratic base) was unlikely to have seen, much less have been influenced by.

This is the latest attempt by the MSM to resurrect Obama and hope to stop the still standing Hillary Clinton.

Sorry, Gallup, your song-and-dance and polling for your man hasn't worked in blue state America all year.  And it won't now.

The Barack Obama camp had better be praying for a comfortable win in North Carolina.  They're going to need something to comfort them after their inevitable Pennsylvania blow-out.

We in Ohio were told by pollsters that Obama was surging, and at best, Obama would lose by four points.  We knew better, and Obama was trounced.  As he shall be in Pennsylvania, regardless of those hopelessly lying pollsters.

Reality to planet Obama: my entire family, and all my close neighbors, not any of whom have ever voted Republican, are all going into the McCain camp this fall, if Obama is the nominee.  The Wright-tainted Obama scares us that much.

One doesn't have to read pollsters.  Not any more.  

Obama can't win in blue state America primaries, aside from his native Illinois.  He can't win in major state America primaries, aside from his native Illinois and that near-draw that was Missouri.  And he can't win in key bell-weathers like Michigan and Florida.  His camp itself must be certain of this last fact--after all, they can only acquire the nomination by disenfranchising both of those voting groups.

So, how yawningly predictable, Gallup is back on Obama's side.

Nobody else but those living on Planet Obama take much stock in pollsters or pundits any more.

For in spite of fawning pundits, newspapers, Democratic Party establishment, and skewered pollsters, most of the Democratic base (save for the obviously proud African-Americans) never bought into Product Obama.

If Senator Obama is the nominee, expect a Democratic landslide defeat that will make the McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis losses actually look good in comparison.

Of course that doesn't concern Gallup or Zogby or any other pollster.  Right now, they still haven't stopped the Clintons.  And they are  worried.  Plenty worried.  Because Obama is going to try to be the nominee of Blue America having lost almost all of Blue America.  A lethal candidate for the fall campaign indeed.

What I find interesting about the polls is Obama had just hit 50% in one poll when his ratings dropped precipitously after the Wright thing.  The point was, however, that they dropped and hers did not rise accordingly.  The undecideds just went up.  

Her ratings don't seem to vary over the long term, they seem stuck in the low to middle 40s.  His may fall, but they also rise. She seems to have a stable but unchanging base of support.

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008 /president/us/democratic_presidential_no mination-191.html#polls

Chery picking Gallup without also talking about PPP, SUSA, RASS and others (which all show Obama falling) is painting a false picture.

Yeah, I don't think there will be any fall out at all just because Obama's spiritual adviser and member of his campaign is on video screaming "God Damn USA" and "USKKKA", etc. It won't stick. People in middle America don't care. They see what Obama is really about. And he's about inspiration. And hope. He wants to have a conversation about race with them, and they are all ears.

Oh sure, there might be a few Americans that question that the fact that he's got one mentor who is on trial for corruption, and another who appears to hate, or shall we say, intensely dislike the country, but don't give it a second thought.

Those folks in Michigan and Florida are backing him more strongly than ever. And you can bet they'll be on his side come November.

It's gonna be a cake walk.

By the way, this is not the only honesty issue that will plague Hillary should she win.  

There is Hsu, there are all the fresh-off-the-boat Chinese immigrants with no records of ever having any money at all giving Hillary $2300 each.  WTF?  Republicans can't wait to get at that one.  

There is a long list of suspicious "returns" of money in Clinton's fundraising records for this ccampaign.  

There is fraudulently acquired money that Hillary refuses to return.  

The list is a long one when it comes to Hillary and honesty.

We can't be afraid of the Republicans.  They will viciously attack the nominee and they have the media on their side.  Whoever is the nominee, we need to be like Ghandi.  Face them down with the truth, and don't go along with media narratives.  We must stop being victims, stop cowering.

OK, from now on I call foul an any diarist (especially front page ones) pimping a poll showing one candidate moving up WHEN ANOTHER POLL ISSUED EXACTLY THE SAME DAY SHOWS EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE TREND.

(bleep) ... technical foul, unsporstmanlike conduct, Singer, Obamatons.

Ummm... for all those that say American will be afraid to vote for Obama, that is not true.  All the thousands of people that attend his rallies very much intend on voting for him.  He draws more people than any other candidate.  He has mass appeal which a leader should have.  The hundreds of thousands donating online to his campaign have every intention on voting for  him. People are not going to give their money if they don't want the candidate.

Hillary is polarizing.  Her experience is being two-faced and shady.  Obama has more legislative experience that she does but he doesn't go around bragging about that.  She tells half truths that make her look good when the whole truth shines the light on the real issues with her and Bill.

McCain has no room to open his mouth.  He is clueless about the issues of this country.  He has already admitted to not knowing much about the economy.  That is the MAIN issue!  How is he going to solve it if he doesn't think anything is wrong with it?  And the nation does not want any more billions of dollars floating over to Iraq.  Those people have crap loads of money and can finance their own civil war to create stability in their region.  

The only reason why Bush wanted to go over there was to 1) get revenge for Sadam attempting to kill Bush Sr. and boost the revenues for the Bush family oil companies.  They are in business with teh Saudi government if you weren't aware.  They don't intend for the oil prices to come down because they are getting richer by the second off of all this mess.

They are afraid of Obama because he is NOT an insider and will topple everything they worked so hard to monopolize.  They didn't want to come right out with the obvious attacks at first because they didn't want to be labeled racists and that would hurt them nation-wide.  So they sneakily started introducing coded remarks that refer to race to start attacking him.  

They have nothing on him personally.  You see that they can only attack people AROUND him but not him personally.  The Clintons are a joke an have so much bagage and skeletons in their closets that it's amazing that anyone would support them at all.

In my opinion, out of all the people that were in the race from the start I truly feel that the onlly ones I would have ever considered voting for were: Obama, Kucinish, and maybe Edwards and Paul.

The others just don't cut it for me.

OBAMA 08!

Pathetic and funny: Dem Hater Russert having a "serious" discussion with 2 Obama lovers and 2 Clinton Haters.

When Reganite Peggy Noonan is waxing (slobbering?) poetic about Obama, you tell me who the GOP is really afraid of.

Moderate Dems need to think of what to do with the HuffingKos takeover of the party.

In order for Obama to have any chance, According to his campaign manager,  he would have to get at least 70+% of the Latino vote. Gore and Kerry received 63% and 53%, respectively. Obama's own team fully expects him to get less than 41% of the white vote.

In order to get 70+% of the latino vote he would have to put Bill Richardson on the ticket. If he puts Richardson on the ticket he would have to get 100% of the Latino vote to make up for all the women, white working-class, and elderly vote he loses.

Question: How can it be in this election year, a year strongly favoring Democrats, that we have a candidate that is such a long-shot to win it all?

Answer: Irrational Exuberance.

Many latinos don't support black candidates, for whatever reason and they like McCain. Polls show as many as 55% of latino Democrats will cross party lines and vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee. Don't under-estimate the significance of that dynamic.

Hillary enjoys the support of 71% of latinos; the Clinton's are very popular in the latino community.  Here's one prediction I'm confident with: if Obama wins the nomination and Hillary is on the ticket, McCain will win the election handily. I'm not sure he would win with Hillary but I'm confident he will lose without her. Especially, if the campaigns get any uglier.

People are citing Obama's favorable/unfavorable numbers as evidence his electability has been damaged, but that's not the whole story. Take a look at this chart: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/overall_favorable_ratings_ for_presidential_candidates

What you find is that two weeks ago, the numbers looked like this (all Favorable/Unfavorable):

Obama: 51/46
Clinton: 50/48
McCain: 51/46

Today they look like this:

Obama: 47/51
Clinton: 42/55
McCain: 54/42

So while it's true Obama's numbers have fallen (-4 favorable/ +5 unfavorable), Clinton's have fallen even further (-8 favorable/ +7 unfavorable). She continues to be both less liked, and more disliked than Obama. The only person gaining in this process is McCain, whose numbers climb higher and higher as people don't actually see or hear of him at all.

All of which implies that that Obama's numbers are falling as part of a larger process in which both candidates are being damaged, a process that is breathing oxygen into the McCain campaign without doing anything to make Clinton more electable relative to Obama.