This is rather remarkable. Apparently in conversations with The Politico's Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, the Clinton campaign now believes that it has a 1 in 10 shot -- at best -- at ending up with the nomination. Take a look:
One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party's most reliable constituency.
Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote -- which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle -- and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.
People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.
As it happens, many people inside Clinton's campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.
In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe. [emphasis added]
It's not often in politics that you see this kind of blunt admission from a campaign -- particularly one that has generally been disciplined enough to stay on message for the last year or more. This statement cannot merely be written off as an attempt to lower expectations, which the Clinton campaign tends to be adept at. Unlike individual contests in which a candidate's performance is lined up against expectations, on that final ballot at the Democratic convention in August the thing that really matters is who can marshal the support of 2,025 delegates (or whatever the benchmark is by that point as it could shift as a result of how and whether delegates from Michigan and Florida are seated). There's no lowering expectations there, there's only winning or losing.
Now I'm not one to say that Clinton should drop out because it's nearly mathematically impossible for her to reach the magic number of 2,025. If she wants to stay in the race, I believe she certainly has the right. Yet at the same time, if her key campaign staff understands what the situation is -- that she has, at best, a 10 percent shot at the nomination now, as they put it -- is it really worth it to try to so tarnish the candidate who has the remaining 90 percent shot at the nomination while at the same time bolstering John McCain's national security credentials?
|
|
|
Permalink :: 320 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
