This one makes 30 by my count (counting seats left open during the middle of the campaign cycle, including IL-14):
GOP sources confirm that Rep. Tom Reynolds, a Western NY Congressman since 1999 and ex-NRCC chairman, will announce around noon tomorrow in Buffalo that he will not seek re-election this fall. Reynolds spokesman LD Platt did not return an e-mail seeking comment.Reynolds, who is also a former Assembly minority leader, has been pushing back against retirement rumors for some time now.
But the recent NRCC fraud scandal - some of which took place on his watch - has made his re-election effort that much more difficult in an already tough year (increasingly Democratic state, presidential election etc).
Reynolds' district, New York's 26th, tends to lean about 3 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. But as we've seen over the last several cycles (and 2006, in particular), the Northeast is becoming increasingly hostile territory for Republicans, and specifically Republicans in the House. With at least one strong Democratic candidate already in the race -- Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who had already raised a respectable $370,000 as of the end of December -- this seat very much could swing blue this fall.
Moreover, this is the 15th district that leans 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole in which the GOP is on the defense without an incumbent in the race, and the 10th that leans 3 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole. At a time when the National Republican Congressional Committee may have just a net $3 million in the bank, having so many competitive open seats in play is simply a nightmare.
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