Yet Another House GOPer from Marginal District Retires

This one makes 30 by my count (counting seats left open during the middle of the campaign cycle, including IL-14):

GOP sources confirm that Rep. Tom Reynolds, a Western NY Congressman since 1999 and ex-NRCC chairman, will announce around noon tomorrow in Buffalo that he will not seek re-election this fall. Reynolds spokesman LD Platt did not return an e-mail seeking comment.

Reynolds, who is also a former Assembly minority leader, has been pushing back against retirement rumors for some time now.

But the recent NRCC fraud scandal - some of which took place on his watch - has made his re-election effort that much more difficult in an already tough year (increasingly Democratic state, presidential election etc).

Reynolds' district, New York's 26th, tends to lean about 3 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. But as we've seen over the last several cycles (and 2006, in particular), the Northeast is becoming increasingly hostile territory for Republicans, and specifically Republicans in the House. With at least one strong Democratic candidate already in the race -- Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who had already raised a respectable $370,000 as of the end of December -- this seat very much could swing blue this fall.

Moreover, this is the 15th district that leans 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole in which the GOP is on the defense without an incumbent in the race, and the 10th that leans 3 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole. At a time when the National Republican Congressional Committee may have just a net $3 million in the bank, having so many competitive open seats in play is simply a nightmare.



Display:


It is all about perspective. (none / 0)

"At a time when the National Republican Congressional Committee may have just a net $3 million in the bank, having so many competitive open seats in play is simply a nightmare."

Or a dream come true.


by hctb on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 03:15:58 AM EST

this is why I disagree with those who say (none / 0)

we can't afford to support Ed Fallon in the Democratic primary for IA-03, because he might lose the general election.

I reject the premise that he would lose the general. The Republicans have so many seats to defend that I don't think they would be able to make a strong play for IA-03 even if Fallon won the primary. Anyway, Democrats have gained substantially in voter registration in Iowa.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 03:19:41 AM EST

Re: this is why I disagree with those who say (none / 0)

who ever said that? I'm one of the biggest skeptics of primarying incumbents out there, but I think Fallon would be fine if he won the primary by a fairly good margin.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 06:35:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yet Another House GOPer from Marginal District (none / 0)


Reynolds barely survived with 52% of the vote in November '06.  If I were him, I would be looking for the exits too.

The minimal good news is that the Republican running to replace him is a state Senator.  That opens up a state Senate seat as well.  Democrats could score a double pickup, and even just one of the two would be an accomplishment.


by killjoy on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 03:37:02 AM EST

Re: Yet Another House GOPer from Marginal District (none / 0)

Speaking as someone who lives in Reynolds' district and voted for The Other Guy every chance I had, I hope you'll excuse me while I leap to my feet and do a brief, thoroughly embarrassing victory dance.


The Cost of Energy: Higher than you think
by Lou Grinzo on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 08:36:36 AM EST

Re: Yet Another House GOPer from Marginal District (none / 0)

How much of what is going on in upstate NY can be attributed to Hillary Clinton?


by usedmeat on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 11:46:44 AM EST

Re: Yet Another House GOPer from Marginal District (none / 0)

None.  


by Toddwell on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 02:32:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

30 is an extraordinary number (none / 0)

15% of the caucus.  Not good news for the NRCC...


Join the California Nurses Association/National Nurses Organizing Committee to fight for guaranteed, single-payer healthcare: www.GuaranteedHealthcare.org/blog
by California Nurses Shum on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 01:28:31 PM EST

Re: Yet Another (none / 0)

You see, Congressional races are what we need to be focusing on.  These are important and we can all agree on them.  


by Toddwell on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 02:34:21 PM EST

local races (none / 0)

Has there been any list released or any major coordinating organization for close local races?
Seems like a lot of state legislative elections could be close and really help win back some state chambers, but we need to know where they are and who needs what.
by goodleh on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 12:32:30 AM EST


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