Nice catch from The Daily Kingfish (via Breaking Blue): The Cook Political Report (subscription required) now rates the May 3rd special election in Louisiana's 6th congressional district as a "toss-up."

Meanwhile, the special election to replace GOP Rep. Richard Baker's seat in Louisiana continues to give national Republicans heartburn. Less than three weeks away from the April 5th primary runoff, competitive primaries are playing out in both parties. Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites - moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins - would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.

The results of the March 8th special primary illustrated Republicans' problems in this race. Like many in the South, this Baton Rouge-based district's track record at the federal level (it gave President Bush 59 percent in 2004) flies in the face of its party registration breakdown (49.6 percent Democratic to 28.1 percent Republican). But in the special primary, turnout appeared much more reflective of party registration than federal-level performance. The fact that 47,632 Democrats and just 29,875 Republicans turned out to vote is evidence of a serious enthusiasm gap between the parties. Of course, it is difficult to gauge how the district's fundamentals have changed since Hurricane Katrina added tens of thousands of new residents to the Baton Rouge area.

I've written about this race before, and it's worth noting once again that Cazayoux is a very conservative Democrat who, if elected in a month and a half, would likely find himself on the far right of his caucus in the chamber. However, it's also worth explicitly stating that Cazayoux would almost undoubtedly be a better member than Jenkins, both because he would caucus with the Democrats rather than the Republicans and because for as conservative as he is, Jenkins is that much more conservative.

Taking one step back, this race is good news for the House Democrats more broadly. The House GOP simply cannot afford to have to invest serious dollars defending another open seat special election -- particularly one that they should be able to win without an investment by the National Republican Congressional Committee (which sent out more money than it took in last month). If the Republicans keep on having to pour money into safe districts like Illinois 14 (which leans about 5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections) and Louisiana 6 (which tended to lean about 6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole before Hurricane Katrina shook things up in the state), there's simply no way they're going to be able to defend even more vulnerable seats come November -- let alone go after potentially vulnerable Democratic seats.