Absolutely; Hillary lost 61-38 in MS and the media didn't bat an eye; I'm guessing the same will occur if Hillary beats Obama in WV by a similar margin.  This has always been Hillary's state, much as MS, GA, AL, SC and many others were always considered Obama's states.  

A win is always good, but she does have a lot of ground to make up; that string of 12 victories in Feb hurt her chances more than anything else.  Had she won a few states during that time, this campaign would be over.

As it is, only by winning 70-30 from here on out in all the states can she make up for lost time.

I remember when people here were saying that if Obama does not win this state or that state by more then 25 percent its a loss for him.

Feel weird when people say such things does not it?

Thad: WTF man... you are going to be responsible for obamabots sucide packages in drones by bringing in reality checks to those lackeys.

They think Georgia will be blue too ROFL!

Excellent post.  You hit everything on the head.  Obama is in serious trouble right now.  

Glad to see you take enjoyment in the misfortune of others.

not.

$800,000 returned to Norman Hsu.

From USA Today:  the average level of voter participation in Super Tuesday's caucuses was 6% while the average level of voter participation in Super Tuesday's primaries was 29%.

That, and as Jay Cost analyzed, the Demcratic delegation rules give disproportionately favorable delegate numbers to smaller states that are normally Republican.  Obama has racked up a lot of delegates from a lot of states with proportionally lower voting.  I would also say that the failure of the Democratic rules to exclude Republicans and Independents (unlike many of the Republican primaries) have inflated his totals.

You people are absolutely nuts.  I cannot wait until she drops out and this place goes back to some semblance of normalcy.  She is cooked, done, finito, over, hasta la vista, etc etc etc.  Keep deluding yourselves thought - you're therapists kids will thank you.

2.3 million is almost the number that voted for Kerry in the GE (2.9 million, when he won the state with over 50% of the vote, so presumably that number includes a good deal of Independents who may not be eligible to vote in this primary) so if that's a realistic number it's gotta be pretty damn close to the ceiling.

They are trying to convince themselves and that is dangerous for them.

They WANT it to be over because, as I've argued for months, they aren't ready for a long struggle and can't handle the stress of possibly having victory snatched away at the last minute.

Fortunately for the Obama campaign, the candidate seems to have as much fortitude as HRC (and that means a boatload), and McCain (another boatload).  These are three candidates who can handle the stress of unknown outcomes and can continue to work amazingly hard on this campaign.

Compare with Bill Bradley (if you go back that far). He couldn't or wouldn't work this hard--to say nothing of Fred Thompson.  A campaign is grueling and tests many things, including the ability to resist the temptation to think, ah, it's over, I've won, I can rest.

The Obamabots can't resist the temptation (and maybe they don't have a lot of experience in prolonged struggle?).  

by Obama and his supporters.  And it has nothing to do with DD.

It's politics.  If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

It's politics.  If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

wtf does this mean? What are you guaranteeing?

What are you saying?  that Clinton only wins states where there are lots of racists? That Clinton supporters are racists?

That the only reason that Obama is down in WV is because they are racist.  

My own feeling, being from the Pittsburgh region, is that people don't like to be talked down to.  Nobody likes to be told that they aren't smart enough or educated enough to know what they really need then be called racist because they have different views from people who hold Ivy League degrees.  That's what you get when you call people "Archie Bunker type" voters.

I think that people who are practical people, who work hard every day in blue collar jobs, will have an easier time identifying with someone who they have evaluated to understand where they are coming from and the problems that they have in their life and offer concrete plans to tackle those issues.

But no, I think your correct.  They're just a bunch of racist fools. snark

There's good reason for that!  

Where the sun comes up about ten in the morning
And the sun goes down about three in the day
And you fill your cup with whatever bitter brew you're drinking
And you spend your life just thinkin' of how to get away

- lyrics from You'll never leave Harlan alive.

Add another comment to the long list of things that would never be said about a male candidate.  Yeesh.

"Oh come on.  The fault is Obama's.  It was a huge political mistake not to address his church issues much earlier."

I believe that no matter when he addressed this issue, the videos are so toxic to so many Americans that it would have tanked him. Only by completely disassociating himself from Wright could he possibly have pulled this out, and recovered. And I venture to think that even if he had, it might very well have not been enough. All people would associate with Barack Obama is that he sat for 20 years in his church listening to "God D@#n America!"

I think Americans might have been ready to vote for Barack Obama, but they aren't ready to vote for Jeremiah Wright.

That's why we need to focus on Congress, and write off the presidential election this year.

And in future elections, the Democrats have to come up with better candidates.  There's no way around this.

"The Wright controversy I believe has not only hurt Obama but also Clinton.:

It has hurt all Democratic candidates down the line, and has really damaged the Democratic "brand" with swing and young voters.

I really don't care about these numbers. We are not in general election mode yet. Remember President Kerry, President Dean, President Perot, President Dukkais, President Mondale. Remember them?

I have always said that I will support the nominee. So have most Clinton supporters in these forums. But again - this blog is not reflective of the larger electorate. One of HRC's strengths is among Reagan Democratcs - they do not reliably vote Democratic in presidential elections but they'd vote for her. They trust the Clinton "brand."

But they are exactly the sort of voters who are going to see the Wright videos and vote for McCain. I would argue that even more than the racial element, it's the "god damn America" sentiments that will sink Obama - the patriotism problem. Most of these voters won't see remarks like that in a cultural or historical context. They are just going to see their country attacked, and react that way.

There will be a very sizable "Anybody but Obama" vote among Democrats now

I can see thinking Wright hurts his chances in the GE -- I don't happen to particularly agree and think his positives strongly outweigh that baggage, but at least it's an intellectually honest point of view.  But if Obama leads in delegates, popular vote, and states won...what's there to be so bitter about?  He's been notably less negative than Clinton in this Primary, at least.

If Hillary takes the nomination, on the other hand, it will almost surely be tainted with the feeling that she "stole" it, given that she will surely trail in pledged delegates.  She's been extremely hostile and damaging on occasion ("shame on you!", McCain-over-Obama for CiC, etc), and is blatantly intellectually dishonest about the MI and FL Primaries.

I can see people being very very resentful about a Clinton nomination.  But I honestly don't see why Clinton supporters would be resentful of an Obama nomination.  I can see being disappointed, and having to swallow a bitter pill which is never fun.  But "anyone but Obama"?  I don't get it.

Well, Obama also wins a number of states that traditionally are not blue, according to SUSA.  Of course, that has been met with retorts around here that those states "obviously" won't flip to our side in the general.

Have you ever been to WVa?  Do you know anything about the state?

Clinton can win WVa.  West Virginia went for Carter in 1980 and for Dukakis in 1988.  It also went comfortably for Bill Clinton twice.  

Hey, they voted for Dukakis.  I wouldn't write this state off if Hillary somehow became the nominee, it's a an old-fashioned New Deal stronghold that still loves its local Democrats.