Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, & MO

SurveyUSA is out with three polls today that shows the first signs of an Obama electoral defeat in November if he should become the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States.

First, Ohio:

If there were an election for President of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were Republican John McCain and ... Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?

Clinton - 50%

McCain - 44%

Undecided - 6%


What if it was John McCain against Democrat Barack Obama?

McCain - 50%

Obama  - 43%

Undecided  - 7%
Next, Kentucky:
If there were an election for President of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were Republican John McCain and ... Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?

Clinton - 43%

McCain  - 53%

Undecided - 4%

What if it was John McCain against Democrat Barack Obama?

McCain - 64%

Obama - 28%

Undecided - 8%
And finally, Missouri:
If there were an election for President of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were Republican John McCain and ... Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?

Clinton - 46%

McCain - 48%

Undecided - 6%

What if it was John McCain against Democrat Barack Obama?

McCain - 53%

Obama - 39%

Undecided - 9%
Any thoughts?



Display:


Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama (none / 0)

Yeah, you broke MyDD. On my Firefox at least.


by animated on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:59:18 PM EST

Bad news week for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Expect some bad polls when the sample was taken during the Wright controversy.


by Sinbad Sinbad on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:59:35 PM EST

Re: Bad news week for Obama (2.00 / 7)

Hint: It's not over. WOM


Fight for Democrats in Congress.
by owl06 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:03:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Wright controversy is permanent (2.00 / 6)

For whatever reason, Obama has decided not to break with Wright -- after you can't break with the people who raised you? (I don't get equating his pastor with his grandma who raised him) -- and to keep his family in the church. 'Black nationalism' (see the church's website) is NOT something white people generally 'get' and hopefully we'll never have the mainstream media pushing for acceptance of white nationalist churches.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:04:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Wright controversy is permanent (2.00 / 0)

That is a wonderful sig, fairleft.


by mlr701 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Respectfully disagree (none / 0)

It's way too early to tell whether the Wright issue will continue at the 'controversy' level of the last week plus, or whether Obama's speech Tuesday will provide context that will help it recede to a lower level issue.

I've read TUCC's site - I see plenty of black and African pride but not 'black nationalism' (others may see it differently - see for yourself at http://tucc.org).


Si, se puede! | Yes, we can!
by Pacific NW Mark on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's because (none / 0)

TUCC's taken down the obvious links to their "12 Point Values System".

Black nationalism is defined as such:

Black Nationalism (BN) advocates a racial definition (or redefinition) of black national identity, as opposed to multiculturalism. There are different black nationalist philosophies but the principles of all black nationalist ideologies are 1) black pride, and 2) black economic, political, social and/or cultural independence from white society. Marcus Garvey is considered to be the grandfather of black nationalism.


The 12 Point Value System of Trinity is this:

1. Commitment to God. "The God of our weary years" will give us the strength to give up prayerful passivism and become Black Christian Activists, soldiers for Black freedom and the dignity of all humankind.

2. Commitment to the Black Community. The highest level of achievement for any Black person must be a contribution of strength and continuity of the Black Community.

3. Commitment to the Black Family. The Black family circle must generate strength, stability and love, despite the uncertainty of externals, because these characteristics are required if the developing person is to withstand warping by our racist competitive society.

Those Blacks who are blessed with membership in a strong family unit must reach out and expand that blessing to the less fortunate.

4. Dedication to the Pursuit of Education. We must forswear anti-intellectualism. Continued survival demands that each Black person be developed to the utmost of his/her mental potential despite the inadequacies of the formal education process. "Real education" fosters understanding of ourselves as well as every aspect of our environment. Also, it develops within us the ability to fashion concepts and tools for better utilization of our resources, and more effective solutions to our problems. Since the majority of Blacks have been denied such learning, Black Education must include elements that produce high school graduates with marketable skills, a trade or qualifications for apprenticeships, or proper preparation for college.

Basic education for all Blacks should include Mathematics, Science, Logic, General Semantics, Participative Politics, Economics and Finance, and the Care and Nurture of Black minds.

5. Dedication to the Pursuit of Excellence. To the extent that we individually reach for, even strain for excellence, we increase, geometrically, the value and resourcefulness of the Black Community. We must recognize the relativity of one's best; this year's best can be bettered next year. Such is the language of growth and development. We must seek to excel in every endeavor.

6. Adherence to the Black Work Ethic. "It is becoming harder to find qualified people to work in Chicago." Whether this is true or not, it represents one of the many reasons given by businesses and industries for deserting the Chicago area. We must realize that a location with good facilities, adequate transportation and a reputation for producing skilled workers will attract industry. We are in competition with other cities, states and nations for jobs. High productivity must be a goal of the Black workforce.

7. Commitment to Self-Discipline and Self-Respect. To accomplish anything worthwhile requires self-discipline. We must be a community of self-disciplined persons if we are to actualize and utilize our own human resources, instead of perpetually submitting to exploitation by others. Self-discipline, coupled with a respect for self, will enable each of us to be an instrument of Black Progress and a model for Black Youth.

8. Disavowal of the Pursuit of "Middleclassness." Classic methodology on control of captives teaches that captors must be able to identify the "talented tenth" of those subjugated, especially those who show promise of providing the kind of leadership that might threaten the captor's control.

Those so identified are separated from the rest of the people by:

1. Killing them off directly, and/or fostering a social system that encourages them to kill off one another. 2. Placing them in concentration camps, and/or structuring an economic environment that induces captive youth to fill the jails and prisons. 3. Seducing them into a socioeconomic class system which, while training them to earn more dollars, hypnotizes them into believing they are better than others and teaches them to think in terms of "we" and "they" instead of "us." 4. So, while it is permissible to chase "middleclassness" with all our might, we must avoid the third separation method - the psychological entrapment of Black "middleclassness." If we avoid this snare, we will also diminish our "voluntary" contributions to methods A and B. And more importantly, Black people no longer will be deprived of their birthright: the leadership, resourcefulness and example of their own talented persons.

9. Pledge to Make the Fruits of All Developing and Acquired Skills Available to the Black Community.

10. Pledge to Allocate Regularly, a Portion of Personal Resources for Strengthening and Supporting Black Institutions.

11. Pledge Allegiance to All Black Leadership Who Espouse and Embrace the Black Value System.

12. Personal Commitment to Embracement of the Black Value System. To measure the worth and validity of all activity in terms of positive contributions to the general welfare of the Black Community and the Advancement of Black People towards freedom.


The page is here:

http://www.tucc.org/black_value_system.h tml

Unless they moved it recently (I got to it from an old post of mine on my journal). But the black nationalistic "values system" was the talk of Fox News in the fall, before the MSM even cared to look at Wright and the TUCC.

So...you wanna try denying the black nationalism in the TUCC again?
by BrandingIron17 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 12:53:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bad news week for Obama (none / 0)

the wright controversy won't go away obama would lose in a landslide, the bigest liberal no experience who would vote for a candidate whom we don't even know what he is


by awayer on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:29:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bad news week for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Actually, lots of Americans will vote for someone they don't really know anything about..Obama's problem is that a lot of those people won't vote for someone when they find out he really is pretty left-wing. A lot of people on the far left find value in Wright's ministry even if they find his words distasteful and bombastic....but the "Republicans for Obama" are gonna have some serious second thoughts as they learn more about him.


by Alice in Florida on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 05:47:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

These polls (none / 0)

are absolutely bad news for Obama.  The PPP polling in Ohio shows a similar break.

Hard to know if this is permanent, but I think it shows the Obama people were right to address the issue directly.  Whether they were successful or not is another question, though I think the speech was brilliant.

If these numbers don't revert back they will absolutely effect the SDs..


by fladem on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:36:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bad news week for Obama (2.00 / 2)

Huh, Bad polls??? Being on the bottom end of 64-28 is not just one of those bad days at the polls......


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:50:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bad news week for Obama (2.00 / 2)

Good call.  It's THESE bad polls that we should follow.  And only CA, NY, NJ, OH, TX and PA count in the Democratic race.  I'm sold mostly because these polls will erase Obama's delegate lead, popular vote advantage and his winning nearly twice as many states.  It's 3 a.m. somewhere, right?


by niksder on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:26:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's serious whistling past the graveyard (none / 0)

Of course it would be way overblown to say those polls show "Obama can't win" or anything ridiculous like that.

But these are three important states for any general election.  These numbers are not to be sneezed at.


by Trickster on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:09:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's serious whistling past the graveyard (2.00 / 1)

They would mean a hell of a lot if they weren't 3 out of over 100 polls saying something very different and hadn't been collected at the peak of the nastiest Republican race-based fear-mongering campaign they've waged to date. Kind of a skewed sample. Don't you think? Not saying they won't continue the same tactics should Obama be the candidate, but certainly they would do something similar to Hillary too. These numbers were collected when one candidate was on the receiving end of that and the other wasn't. If these numbers continue to stick 2 weeks from now, I'll admit it as a point. Until that, it's just cherry-picking.

Something to understand, Obama is 99.9% sure to be our candidate. I am genuinely sorry for people who are passionate about Clinton, but that's just reality. He has a nearly insurmountable lead in delegates and votes, he also has an insurmountable lead in states. I mention this because it'd be in this blog's interest to help beat back these disgusting attacks rather than be complicit in them.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:39:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's serious whistling past the graveyard (2.00 / 2)

If you think this is nasty for Republicans wait till next month. They've barely begun digging their claws into Obama.

Much as I am sure the Clintons and their supporters would love to defend Obama we really aren't in a position to do so. According to David Axelrod last week we are part of an underlying effort to emphasize race in an insidious pattern of offensive statements. I do wonder how Obama is supposed to win with just the 'non-racist' part of the Democratic party.


by souvarine on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:50:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Some responses (none / 0)

First, 99.9% is way way overblown.  I just bought some Hillary nomination shares this week at 25 on Intrader and I think I got a good deal.

I may be wrong, but the market gives her a 25% chance.  Last I checked that's 250X the 0.1% chance you give her.

I think you're right that Obama has "an insurmountable lead in states."  However, that's irrelevant.  As for delegates, he leads by about 125, there are still 689 delegates left to be selected and that DOES NOT count the 4-500 more who would be up for grabs if FL & MI get re-votes.  Also, there are over 700 superdelegates who can vote for whomever they please and change their minds whenever they want if the news cycles support such a decision.  Bear in mind that Clinton currently has the momentum, the news cycles have only started for the first time in the campaign to disfavor Obama, and we are only 50% of the way through the primary schedule in terms of time (we're 2.5 months from Iowa and 2.5 months from Puerto Rico).

My belief all along--and events have certainly done nothing but reinforce it--is that Obama would be more vulnerable to Republican attack because his past is virtually unknown and they will get the chance to define him for the American people, whereas Hillary is probably the 2nd-most investigated human in the history of the United States and hasn't taken a poop without legal advice in the decade since she underwent that incredible run of investigations of her entire life.

This is all off the subject of the 3 polls, which speak for themselves.  I'm just answering your post.


by Trickster on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:31:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's serious whistling past the graveyard (none / 0)

He may be your candidate but he ain't mine and given his demonstrated stupidity about how to campaign for the GE he should not be yours either.

One more thing.

Obama's steepening slide into GE oblivion is exactly why SuperDelegates were invented. If, which it is not clear at this time, he is a certain loser in the GE as the convention approaches he will be 'invited' to step aside and if he is the great 'unifier' that he claims...

He will.

Otherwise his kaishakunin will help him atone for his crimes against his clan party.


by Pericles on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 12:39:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hmm... (none / 0)

Upland South loses don't surprise me in the least for Obama.  I think his supporters are correct in saying that he'll do well in the Kerry states, but, as we all unfortunately know, you need more than that to win a general.

I'm really surprised to see Obama lose that badly in Missouri though, I must say.  I didn't think he'd win it, but I thought he'd perform about as well as Kerry did.

It's always worth noting though that these really are too far out to mean much, but I'm still surprised...


by ejintx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:00:53 PM EST

Re: Hmm... (2.00 / 1)

Remember - Obama only carried something like 5 out of 83 counties in the MO primary. That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.


by cmugirl90 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:24:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

Not taking sides here, but he carried St. Louis City and County, which is more than a quarter of the votes.  I believe he also carried Jackson County (KC).  Obama defeated Clinton 51% to 49% in the Missouri primary.  Basing your view on carrying counties is deceptive.  St. Louis County is worth 30 or 40 counties.  

That said, those GE numbers for Missouri for Obama are bad, but it still is early.


by TomP on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:07:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

Exactly and he would lose the St. Louis City and County, which is more than a quarter of the votes
after the Rev Wright issue
by indus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:32:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MO No Surprise (2.00 / 1)

MO is a fairly conservative state except for a few Democratic strongholds. Many of our Democratic voters tend to be more on the conservative side when you get outside a few liberal areas. Don't think Rev. Wright,  even after Obama's speech, will play well here in MO.

During our primary, Obama only won the counties that Dems always win in.  Clinton won all the rest.


by MOBlue on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MO No Surprise (none / 0)

Oh, I know.  I used to live in Iowa and have been through Missouri many times.

I saw that Obama won those counties that Kerry did in 2004 and hence my original thought.  I know most of Missouri's democrats are more the conservative type, but I thought perhaps Obama would do better than he appears to be outside of St. Louis and Kansas City.  Do you think there will be an eventual backlash against MacCaskill over her endorsement?


by ejintx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MO No Surprise (none / 0)

In the polls I saw a few months ago, she wasn't the most popular Senator in the country. She wasn't in what I would consider the red zone but her numbers weren't great even then.  I wouldn't doubt that her phones have been ringing off the hook since the videos hit the main stream news. I firmly believe if Obama is the nominee, the 527s will have a field day with this and that will only cause her more grief. A big loss by Obama in the GE and Claire IMO could become a one term Senator as she has billed herself among other things as a ideological ally of Senator Obama. This of course is just my opinion of how this may play out in my state. I've been wrong before and could be wrong again. While I wouldn't mind having a different Dem as my Senator, I would prefer the state move more blue and not become more red.


by MOBlue on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:16:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Useless... (none / 0)

Yea, here are my thoughts.  Relying on any poll this far out from November is useless.  If this was October, then they would have more weight.  The fact is, Hillary runs her entire campaign on her "experience".  If she runs against McCain her whole campaign argument falls apart.  What else does she have to run on?  I'm not trying to bash her, I'm just asking an honest question.


by facemn on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:01:09 PM EST

Her experience neutralizes McCain's experience (2.00 / 7)

Then she can run on the issue the Democrats need to run on, the economy.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:05:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her experience neutralizes McCain's experience (none / 0)

Yea I agree with this.  McCain himself has admitted that he doesn't know much about the economy.  I just worry that she wouldn't be able to get the independents or some Republicans you need to win a GE.  Sure, Republicans are voting for her now, but there is an argument to be made that they are only doing it to sabotage our primaries so that they can "defeat" her in the fall.  I'm still up in the air about whether or not she could beat McCain.


by facemn on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:50:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her experience neutralizes McCain's experience (none / 0)

Republicans care about their pocketbook.  In the privacy of their voting booth, they will vote for Clinton.  


by tiffany on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:54:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her experience neutralizes McCain's experience (2.00 / 2)

"I just worry that she wouldn't be able to get the independents or some Republicans you need to win a GE"

Your post made me remember Hillary's biggest liability was supposed to be Bill's past.

All we've been doing is speaking of Obama's.

Having said that, Clinton has been distinguishing herself on the issues, and I  believe she has some very  talented people advising her, the best of the best, as opposed to second tier failures, looking for another chance.

The MSM, at least the news I watch, doesnt cover the policy talks, (too boring for them, I guess, not sexy) but I try to find out what's going on,  the war and economy being critical issues.

Maybe she is reaching voters, just on a more grassroots level.

Meaning, as of this moment, anyway, she might stand a good chance against McCain, if she were to win the nomination, on a sound platform.

Remember those A students in school who always came prepared, always knew what they were doing, the ones always regarded as the brain of the class?

That's Hillary, as opposed to the consultant, poll driven rope-a-dope policies we see from the others.

You know, all those vote pandering flip flops.


by Marsha1 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her experience neutralizes McCain's experience (none / 0)

I might be misunderstanding you, but the Clintons' are completely poll-driven.  Just look at Bill Clintons years in the White House and Hillary's campaign this year.  The reality is that there are virtually no differences between Hillary and Barack when it comes to policies - outside of mandated vs. un-mandated health care policies.  

This is why we are seeing both sides cherry pick lines from one another, taking them out of context, and spinning them to make it look like there are broader differences than there really are.  Will the average American see through this?  Probably not.  Only those of us that breathe and live this stuff daily - even tho it's not our job - see through the spin.

I'm not sure what my point is other than this: if Barack and Hillary keep going at each other like this, especially for the next few months, it won't be the Democratic party winning in November.  I think the national polls are already reflecting this - if you can trust the polls.


by facemn on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:14:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her experience neutralizes McCain's experience (2.00 / 0)

They have significant differences on domestic and economic issues, beyond mandates. Obama prefers market driven solutions to health care and stagnant middle class wages. Clinton does not believe the market can solve these problems and believes the government needs to take more direct action to address these problems. You can see the differences when you compare their health care and mortgage crisis relief plans, but it is even more clear in two NY Times interviews:

Clinton

Obama


by souvarine on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:34:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her experience neutralizes McCain's experience (none / 0)

The previous post was about Hillary and what she seems to be about, and then you fire back about this entity called "the Clintons." Kind of harshed a nice but little discussion of an independent and talented human being called Hillary.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:32:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The economy, health care, Iraq (2.00 / 2)

Hillary's primary campaign has been about experience, because of who she's running against; in the general, she'll run on all the same issues that any Democrat would run on. It's the same with Obama; I wouldn't expect his GE campaign to spend so much time on Clinton library records.


by Shawn on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:07:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economy, health care, Iraq (none / 0)

"I wouldn't expect his GE campaign to spend so much time on Clinton library records."

LOL; this is very funny and quite apropos.


by anya109 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:57:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Have you heard Hillary speak? (2.00 / 4)

Lots of solutions on the economy - McCain's supposedly biggest weakness, foreign policy, environment, health care, etc.

More what I'm looking for in a presidential candidate than merely hope and soaring rhetoric.


Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:08:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Also (2.00 / 1)

I have no idea where I read this (some MSM source) but Hillary has enough "experience" to somewhat neutralize McCain's strength on this issue - I am speaking of voters' perceptions here.


by OtherLisa on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:32:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Useless... (none / 0)

the issues


by Thaddeus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 11:38:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Loses (2.00 / 2)

WOW!
but I don't know how these state polls were trending previously.

Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:01:36 PM EST

My Thought? (2.00 / 1)

In the middle of an absolutely terrible news cycle, Obama's numbers have decreased significantly in Ohio and somewhat in Missouri.  He's never been close in Kentucky.  Clinton loses the latter two as well.  

It's not good news for my candidate, certainly, but it hardly presages the kind of electoral disaster you're talking about.  The previous SurveyUSA 50-state poll showed Obama losing all of these states, if memory serves, but still getting more electoral votes than Senator Clinton.  Not sure how this really changes anything significantly.  


by HSTruman on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:02:20 PM EST

Re: My Thought? (2.00 / 7)

Missouri was the state Obama was going to turn blue according to his campaign and his supporters.


by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:09:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (2.00 / 3)

The problem with Obama supporters is they CANNOT seem to UNDERSTAND the difference between Primary voters & General election voters.

Obama getting 25%,30%, 35% of white liberal democrats in the primary EQUATES to 15%,20%,25% of ALL WHITE VOTERS in the GE!

What does that mean? A freekin November Landslide defeat across the country!

Again wait for the poll in NJ,MA - Don't be shocked !


by labanman on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:14:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (1.50 / 2)

Actually, this seems to be the problem with Clinton supporters.  You seem to equate primary wins in OH and (likely) PA with general election wins.


by leshrac55 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:26:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (2.00 / 2)

The difference is that the voters that Clinton gets are more in line with GE voters; Reagan Democrats, Catholics, lunch bucket voters.  


by anya109 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:59:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Did you even read the SUSA numbers ... (2.00 / 3)

in this diary? The fact that she is likely to win in Ohio (where the economy is the no. 1 concern of the voters) against McCain. I'm sure the same is likely to hold true in PA. Obama has very little hope of winning either of these states.


Fortune strums a mournful tune for those whose campaigns peak too soon. --Bored of the Rings
by Inky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:59:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did you even read the SUSA numbers ... (none / 0)

Except recent polling actually shows Obama better in the General election in PA than Clinton, despite losing by 20 points in the primary (as of today).

Sorry, there's just not much correlation there.


by leshrac55 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did you even read the SUSA numbers ... (none / 0)

Yeah, okay, show us that recent polling, then.
by BrandingIron17 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 01:08:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did you even read the SUSA numbers ... (none / 0)

Think there was another one too, but here you go:

General Election:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylva nia_2008_presidential_election

Democratic Primary:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylva nia_democratic_presidential_primary

And you're right... this one only has him down 13 in the primary, not 20 points.  My bad.


by leshrac55 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 02:32:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No (2.00 / 2)

The last SUSA polls had him up ten in Ohio, and up in MO too, but by a slightly smaller margin than Clinton.


by Shawn on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:09:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No (2.00 / 3)

That's correct. The decline for Obama in Ohio is absolutely catastrophic. You don't see that kind of decrease very often, and you also don't tend to recover either. That very very disturbing.
by ColoradoGuy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:19:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's what disturbed me too... (2.00 / 3)

...A complete flip in Ohio.  With Sen. Clinton on the ballot, she wins by double-digits.  With Sen. Obama on the ballot, he loses by double-digits.


by andrewalker08 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:23:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Very, very true (2.00 / 4)

His fall in Ohio is a terrible sign. it means disaster for the GE. Clinton said it and we all know it. Without Ohio or Florida, and certainly without BOTH, we lose.


by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:31:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Correction (none / 0)

SUSA's last MO poll had McCain leading Obama and Clinton, but a poll earlier in February had the scenario I described above.


by Shawn on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (2.00 / 1)

MO is actually with MoE. Obama will lose G.E because of Wright, I don't even think its fair, but I bet it will happen.


DEMOCRATIC 08!
by rigsoHC on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

MOL is within MOE? How so? McCain is ahead by 14%!!


by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (2.00 / 1)

or did you mean Clinton is within MOE in MO?! Sorry...heh...oops...


by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:34:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

that's what i meant


DEMOCRATIC 08!
by rigsoHC on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

<In the middle of an absolutely terrible news cycle, Obama's numbers have decreased significantly in Ohio and somewhat in Missouri.  He's never been close in Kentucky.  Clinton loses the latter two as well.>

But Clinton is in a statistical tie in Missouri, and somewhat competitive in Kentucky.


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (2.00 / 1)

Yes she is, which is great for her and our party if she's nominated.  At the same time, as far as I know, she still performs much more poorly than Obama in states like Colorado, Virginia, Oregon, Washington state, Iowa, and Wisconsin.  They each have strengths and weaknesses right now.  

Look, this poll is better news for Senator Clinton than it is for Obama, who has had a rought week, and likely makes McCain's day more than either Democrat.  He's benefiting right now from our candidates attacking each other.  I am quite confident that McCain's numbers will suffer once he's no longer floating above the fray.  


by HSTruman on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

<Yes she is, which is great for her and our party if she's nominated.  At the same time, as far as I know, she still performs much more poorly than Obama in states like Colorado, Virginia, Oregon, Washington state, Iowa, and Wisconsin.  They each have strengths and weaknesses right now>

Most of those states have had no recent polling, so we can't be sure of their present snapshots.


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:10:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

I'll grant you Colorado, because she's always been very weak there for some reason, but I'm not convinced she would underperform Obama vis-a-vis McCain in any of the other states you mentioned.  Hillary is doing great with Latinos, Asians, moderate women, Catholics, and blue-collar workers, all of whom might be considered swing votes that could be potentially lost to McCain.  She thus has a good chance to hold on to the crucial center we'll need to win the election.

Obama's especially strong among African-Americans and whites who have always been against the Iraq war.  These two groups, especially when taken together, constitute a big chunk of the Democratic electorate, but a much smaller percentage of the general electorate.  I'm not so sure he could pick up enough centrist voters to outperform Clinton in Virginia, Oregon, Washington state, Iowa, or Wisconsin -- especially given the huge hit on his favorability ratings which is already underway.


by markjay on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (2.00 / 1)

Don't forget the seniors. Clinton consistently outperforms Obama in this category in every state. This is a demographic that I think she will carry in the GE due to the fact that women outnumber the men and many of them would like to see a women president in their lifetime. Don't think that Obama has any real chance of capturing this demographic in the GE. They tend to prefer experience and are more into security than change. Clinton based on exit polls drastically outperforms Obama in the experience category among those who list it as a priority.


by MOBlue on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:35:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

Not once Obama promises to remove all taxes for seniors making less than $50k.


by memoryadi on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

Then he better start making those promises known far and wide NOW because he is losing big time now among seniors for numerous reasons.


by MOBlue on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

I don't think McCain could be very happy about being down in Ohio with Hillary at 50.


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Thought? (none / 0)

After talking to people in Oregon this week, Obama is not doing so well. He will lose the east half of the state because he refuses to make a campaign stop there and people have been asking him to come. He is only doing the I-5 corridor...Portland the like.


by navyvet48 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 11:14:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Cut of nose to spite face (2.00 / 2)

In other words, I hope the party is looking at the GE like you are and not just focusing only on the primary.


by soyousay on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:03:48 PM EST

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama (none / 0)

They are basically tied in the Ohio RCP average of all polls, so I don't know if this one poll matters so much.


by animated on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:04:12 PM EST

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Loses In (2.00 / 5)

Wait for NJ & MA next week.

The numbers will be scary !

These are Blue states going Red with Obama as nominee. ( NJ,MA,PA)

Two weeks ago, Obama would lose NJ by 6 pts.
Clinton would win NJ by 11 pts.

It should even be more now.

Its All about REAGAN DEMOCRATS!

MO,OH,KY,NJ,MA,PA - States with Millions of White Reagan Democrats.

Can you imagine when the actual GOP attacks start in September?


by labanman on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:05:22 PM EST

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Loses In (2.00 / 3)

The many Italians in Nj, PA and Mass. will not vote for Obama after that Rev. Wrong's rant against them.  And New Yorkers did not like his comments on 9/11.  NY is in jeopardy, as well.  The DNC should do everything possible to urge him to resign for the good of the country.


by tiffany on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:59:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Loses In (none / 0)

the 'ethnic' white vote in NJ was never warm to Obama anyway


by bigbay on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 05:52:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama too full of himself to do the right thing (2.00 / 2)

The way Obama has ruthlessly taken down the Clintons indicates to me that this race is all about him, not about victory for the Dems.


by bluestatedude on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:56:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A Thought (none / 0)

I had a thought: I know Zogby's including Nader, should SUSA move that way too?  If it does, what's it looks like for all candidates?


by ejintx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:05:42 PM EST

Re: A Thought (none / 0)

Zogby polls using Nader are a farce. First of all, Nader will not be on the ballot in 50 states. He will be lucky to get on in even half that number. Secondly using only Nader is basically unfair to other 3rd party candidates, who are not being polled. Finally that 6% or so that Nader polls in the Zogby polls is totally useless and misleading. In 2004, he would get those kind of numbers when polled, but in the actual election his numbers were closer to 1%


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:30:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Thought (none / 0)

I'll agree that only using Nader is an insult to other third party candidates, but if we inserted "Third Party" into the question, it's still a relevant question.  Blame could be laid at the feet of each individual third party candidate in Florida in 2000.


by ejintx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 05:00:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Thought (none / 0)

Nader could be seen as taking votes from the democrats, while other 3rd parties, such as the libertarians would more readily be taking votes from the republicans. However if part of your point is that the Nader cost Gore Florida, I totally agree.


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:40:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Thought (2.00 / 1)

Well, Nader did hurt, but it was Buchanan's surprising popularity with jewish retirees in Palm Beach County that pushed W over the top.

:-)   :-/  :-(


Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.
by itsthemedia on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:13:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Thought (none / 0)

I totally Agree-:)


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 10:11:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Thought (none / 0)

I don't think that Nader necessarily did it in, but he certainly didn't help.


by ejintx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:28:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Thought (none / 0)

The 92,000 voted he recieved in Florida, most of which would have gone to Gore would have easily made Florida theft proof.......


Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.
by pollbuster on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 10:09:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GE defeat (2.00 / 4)

if Obama is the nominee we can kiss the whitehouse goodbye.

This is exactly the kind of thing the SDs were created for.


by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:08:53 PM EST

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In (2.00 / 4)

Obama supporters.

Stop Denying what your gut tells you.

It is virtually impossible for Obama to fix his PROBLEM with White working class reagan democrats.

It was a big problem before Wrightgate. It is now a serious problem.

You think millions of working class whites will have Tears in their eyes & a vision of Racial Reconciliation & just vote for Obama come November?

Obama cannot win in november!


by labanman on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:09:16 PM EST

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In (2.00 / 1)

Agree with your post.  Except it is more than a serious problem, it is an unsurmountable problem - there will be a run away from Obama by these voters even more than when it was Mondale/Ferraro.


by anya109 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In (none / 0)

Not insurmountable, IMHO. Clinton on the ticket as VP might help a lot, for one thing. She knows how to take the battle to the enemy, which is something Obama will need in a highly negative battle against McCain/GOP/media/swiftboaters.


Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.
by itsthemedia on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:57:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In (2.00 / 1)

Here's the fundamental self-serving falacy that the Hillary supporters now reveling in the Wright fallout fail to understand:

By the time of the general, this issue will be as buried as the hundred Clinton scandals out there.

So the question doesn't come down to a "clean" candidate vs. a candidate with the Wright stigma.

It is a choice between a candidate that can be made to look like a racist through questionable associations with a made-up pastor image, or one that can be made to look like a murdering, drug trafficking, terrorist pardoning, land dealing crook who let Al-Quaeda run away and was responsible for 9/11.

Nobody in the Obama campaign will mention it, because they have the class to understand that democrats aren't supposed to tear each other down.

But you'd better think about it for a bit before you decide on who would be the best candidate.


by memoryadi on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In (none / 0)

Yes, Obama people are so much classier than Clinton people, as your post so aptly demonstrates. Please drop the smug superiority - it does discredit to your candidate, who professes a desire to get past that sort of thing.


Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.
by itsthemedia on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:54:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In (none / 0)

"made-up" pastor image??? Are you HIGH?
by BrandingIron17 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 01:15:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (2.00 / 3)

As much as I don't like that this wright thing is hurting Obama, because I do think there is a general misunderstanding of black churches in white communities, its still reality, and he will lose because of it. He should have been smarter about this, that speech will not stop the attacks from 527's (McCain won't do it himself, just watch)


DEMOCRATIC 08!
by rigsoHC on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:12:33 PM EST

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (2.00 / 3)

I agree 100%.

I am not happy about Wright either.

But this is reality in 2008.

No amount of speeches will change 4,5,6 generations of racial bias.

That's reality !

Some BHO supporters do not understand that the white voters he is getting in the primary are a MINORITY of All white voters in the GE!

Kerry got about 45% of the white vote & still lost.

With Obama's 25%-35% white primary numbers, that TRANSLATES to 15%-25% of ALL White GE voters. Throw him another 10%-15% more white dem voters & he still losses in Dukakis proportions!

If Obama is the nominee, we will all see Big Red spots in the Northeast ! NJ,MA,PA,CT,RI,NH,ME would ALL be heavily Leaning red.

While former blue MI, OH,MO,CO would all go red!

BHO fans keep talking about CO. Wait until the GE CO numbers come. It won't even be close!

The white voters he get are a MINORITY of all white voters!


by labanman on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:21:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (none / 0)

No it doesn't.  This assumes that every white Clinton supporter flocks to McCain for the general election, and that's not going to happen.


by leshrac55 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:31:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (none / 0)

Don't be surprised that the super majority or more don't.  Also, the Hispanics and Asians will be out the door too.


by anya109 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:06:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (2.00 / 1)

MO is not a blue state. Kerry lost MO in 04. At best, it is a purple state that could squeak out a Dem win in the GE with the right candidate. I doubt that the rural Dems will vote for Obama especially after the airing of Wright videos. AA, youth and "creative class(??) voters can not win without them.

Clinton IMO had a chance to win MO but after being tarnished by accusations of running a racist campaign, I'm not sure how the AA community would react if she were the nominee. No Dem candidate  can win without a strong turn out from our AA Dems.

The Dems may have screwed the pooch in MO.


by MOBlue on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:48:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the tarnishing of HRC (2.00 / 1)

Good analysis. The Obama campaign had a big part in painting the Clinton's comments in So. Carolina as racist. Obama has now created a situation where both Dem candidates are tarnished.


by bluestatedude on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:53:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the tarnishing of HRC (none / 0)

However, there is the idea that the AA community who're offended by this Wright thing will be reevaluating what has been done to Clinton/scrutinize it more. The might look at Obama's unwillingness to "disown" someone who is "like" family and look at what they did to Bill and Hillary and come back to Hillary anyhow, after remembering what the Clintons stand fore re: race relations. The "second look" at why Toni Morrison called Bill "the first black president" might come back into play, and for Hillary that would be a good thing.
by BrandingIron17 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 01:20:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (none / 0)


On simple post-2004 trend, MO is a narrow 49/51-ish loss for Democrats.  Colorado is probably a little more likely, Virginia a bit less.

The winning electoral votes are in Ohio, Florida, and/or the Wisconsin-Iowa-New Mexico-Nevada quadruplet.  


by killjoy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:12:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I can't deny it's a bad week... (none / 0)

...however this is polling done in the midst of a scandal.   I want to see if he recovers over the next few weeks or not.  One tracking poll is showing  that, one isn't, so I'm going to be nervous for a while.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:20:11 PM EST

Re: I can't deny it's a bad week... (2.00 / 1)

Obama will never recover from this, because even if the scandal subsides, the repugs will bring it back to life in the fall. Don't kid yourself, it's over.


by RC01 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:25:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCaskill? (2.00 / 2)

Funny, I was watching her, too. She'll be the canary in the coal mine. The minute she says something that might suggest she really is more undecided that fully in the Obama camp, the landslide will begin. Watch for it.
by ColoradoGuy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:21:14 PM EST

I think Wright will be Obama's campaign (2.00 / 2)

killer, even if not during primaries, in G.E, he cant survive multiple ads in heavily white states with Wright ranting in them, and then a catch line ala "Is this the change we can expect?"  or "This is what you call unifying the country?"  You know, the GOP will win if we choose Barack as nominee because of Wright, its like 04 ALL over again, except this time, WE KNOW! So let's stop it from happening.


DEMOCRATIC 08!
by rigsoHC on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:22:34 PM EST

Re: McCaskill? (none / 0)

Yes, Senator McCaskill is in a bad spot. She probably was getting some grief from die-hard Clinton supporters in Missouri. After the Wright controversy she is probably thinking that she jumped the ship too soon politically.

But maybe she really does want Senator Obama as President.


by ann0nymous on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:22:55 PM EST

Re: McCaskill? (2.00 / 1)

My bet is that McCaskill is hearing big time from rural and more moderate and conservative Dems  since the videos appeared. Guaranteed they are not happy campers about her endorsement right now.


by MOBlue on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Too far out from November (2.00 / 2)

When Obama fans were shouting Obama is more electable than Clinton, I was pointing out that at that point in the election 4 yrs back Kerry was on his way to White House. So that disclaimer still applies. All opinion polls begin with a misstatment-

``If election were held today ...''


by ann0nymous on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:26:09 PM EST

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (2.00 / 1)

What this says to me, more than anything, is that the extended primary battle is benefiting McCain and hurting both Obama and Clinton, at least in the short term.

In the long term... hmm, not sure it means anything.  You could look at it as John McCain + 1 Democrat vs your preferred choice, with your preferred choice unable to really respond to McCain effectively because they're stuck responding to the Democrat.  Once we have an actual nominee, these numbers will start to mean a bit more.


by leshrac55 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:29:17 PM EST

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (2.00 / 1)

Thoughts? yes... this is fantastic!  Hillary is surging, and polls show she holds more of Obama's voters than he holds of hers.  This ain't over yet!


Give 'em Hill!
by BlueDoggyDogg on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:31:00 PM EST

Parse Speak (none / 0)

Now, let me get this straight -- are you saying "Big Obama" Losses or are you saying Big "Obama Losses" or are you really saying Big, Obama, Losses? There is a difference. ;)


by grlpatriot on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:38:51 PM EST

Well, the intent of my diary... (none / 0)

...Is to highlight the potential of a significant Obama electoral loss in the states of Ohio, Kentucky, and Missouri.

Next time, I think that maybe I should include the intent of my published diaries.


by andrewalker08 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:45:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, the intent of my diary... (none / 0)

I was kidding.


by grlpatriot on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:13:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I know ;-) (none / 0)


by andrewalker08 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:18:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (none / 0)

As an Obama supporter i must say this has been the roughest days of the campaign so far, even more so then post NH.  I still want him to win the nomination as i don't think Hillary can win, and i like Obama much more, but even i am very pessimistic about November now.  These are such huge turnarounds in such short time, i don't know if he can recover.


What would LBJ do?
by Socks The Cat on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:39:55 PM EST

My thought is this: (2.00 / 2)

nominate Hillary.


Another Hillary Supporter for Obama!
by Beltway Dem on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:40:19 PM EST

Re: My thought is this: (2.00 / 2)

I second that nomination!
by The Smoldering Crone on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:56:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's have a roll call vote then... (2.00 / 1)

...Or should we do a voice vote?


by andrewalker08 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:08:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's have a roll call vote then... (2.00 / 1)

How about a primary? Oh yeah, that's what we're doing :)


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:28:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA Poll: Big Obama Losses In OH, KY, (none / 0)

The difference between the polls in Missouri and Ohio is because if Obama is the nominee, 25-28% of Democrats say they would vote for McCain while 10-12% would vote for McCain if Clinton were the nominee.  I don't think 25% or 28% is at all realistic - most Democrats will come home after the heat of the primary has cooled.


by CA Pol Junkie on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:41:24 PM EST