Did he project Rev . Wright .

The speech he made today will help a little at the margins at best.

What I have heard all day was how he threw his white grandmother under the bus.

That was unnecessary.

Good numbers for Clinton, but I need to saying something:

The Pennsylvania primary is April 22, 2008.

Attacking on Clinton's tax returns isn't silly if he makes it part of a larger point on transparency. And he should hit the lobbyist angle hard. In fact, these are probably his best lines of attack if he wants to refrain from getting his hands too dirty.

Obama certainly can't attack Hillary on lobbyists since he's just as guilty.
However, on the campaign trail he implies he's never taken donations from Washington lobbyists!

Edwards always gave him a big break on that - and never mentioned Obama only switched in 2007.

Another flip flop that began in 2007 - like his positions on the war and his minister.

Wasn't she up by 20 recently? How is this a Hillary surge?

Maybe people will watch his Philadelphia speech today.  Maybe they'll see for themselves that the pygmy politics of play-acting can be swapped for an adult discussion.

Maybe.

Probably not, but maybe.

I know, I know, Reverend Wright, Reverend Wright, Reverend Wright.  Bad man, terrible man, horrible man.

Geraldine Ferraro, good woman, misunderstood woman, fine lady.

Hillary good.  Barack bad.  Over and over and over.

But maybe enough people are simply tired of the charade.

One can hope.

Today's speech will make a difference.

He will still lose PA but probably by no more than 8-10% and will more than make up the lost delegates in North Carolina and Indiana.

The key challenge is not PA but getting out of the Florida-Michigan debacle with only a small loss.

If the DNC is stupid enough to award those states to Hillary as per the original vote, the Dems will go down in flames in November as millions of Obama youth and African Americans desert the party.

MP

There is still a month.  The focus is going to change.  Today's speech should help.  He only needs to get within 10 or so  points in PA and has a month to recoup some of what he lost in this last lousy news cycle.  I think this is the nadir of his campaign and that drop is to be expected.  

"His white grandmother under the bus."  Define throwing under a bus please?

"I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe."  How is expressing a difficult truth in a loving way throwing under a bus?  

"Black anger" and "white resentments," he said, have "distracted attention from the real culprits of the middle-class squeeze: a corporate culture rife with inside dealing, questionable accounting practices and short-term greed."

Anyone ever read about Penny Pritzker, Obama's Senate and Prez finance chair?

   Superior Bank, half-owned by the wealthy Pritzker family, was shut down by the FDIC Friday after a bailout plan by the Pritzkers, who own the Hyatt Hotel chain, and their partner, New York real estate developer Alvin Dworman, fell through. The bank failed because it had lost nearly all of its more than $2 billion of assets on bad loans to high-risk borrowers, federal regulators said.

   The FDIC reopened the bank Monday as Superior Federal and is seeking a buyer and a new CEO.

   Superior's failure could cost the FDIC $500 million or more--some observers now are pegging the loss at closer to $1 billion, one of the largest bank failures ever.

On September 11, 2001, Ellen Seidman, Director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, told the Senate Banking Committee:

   Superior, which had assets of $1.8 billion as of June 30, 2001, became critically undercapitalized largely due to incorrect accounting treatment and aggressive assumptions for valuing complicated financial instruments known as residuals. "The risk from a concentration in residuals at Superior was exacerbated by a faulty accounting opinion by the institution's external auditors that caused capital to be significantly overstated, and by management and board recalcitrance in acting on regulatory recommendations, directives and orders."

http://obamasdeckofcards.blogspot.com/20 08/02/obamas-subprime-problem.html

Personally I think his performance in Pennsylvania is all but irrelevant for the nomination. He saved his political hide from the Wright controversy today and that was really Hillary's only hope.

She can continue to make things messy and continue to hurt his general election chances, but he's got it sealed up now.

The real question is how much of a delegate net will she grab with a 12 point win? How are they distributed? If BO gets 90% vote in AA communities in Philly and in Pitt, how will that translate to delegates? What does it mean if she cleans up in Scranton and Harrisburg?

I think we all realize she is going to "win" Pennsylvania, but can she grab enough delegates to even make it appear like she is competitive in the elected delegate race. The momentum that HC got out of big wins in Texas and Ohio ended when it became clear that BO gained just as many delegates in Ms. and Wy.

This is the problem with the MSM treating these primaries as electoral college triumphs and not as a series of small micro-contests. She needs delegates. Momentum is not quantifiable. Otherwise, he says the morning after Pennsylvania, "Scoreboard!!"

First, the PPP states:

The survey's margin of errors is +/- 4.0%

Second, the selection appears to be intentionally dishonest.
The Q poll says

#  White voters go with Clinton 61 - 33 percent, compared to 56 - 37 percent February 27.
# Black voters back Obama 76 - 18 percent, compared to 69 - 23 percent February 27.

Clinton even appears to be making in roads among black voters in the state. She trails just 63-27 with that group, which Obama has tended to get over 80% of the vote from in key primary states so far. She has a 40 point lead, 63-23, with white voters.

Spreadsheet? Come on she is going to blow him away in Pennsylvania and have bragging rights to having one all but one large blue state, that being Illinois. You "0" supporters are hilarious

While I love to see a 26-point lead in PA, I'm thinking that's not sustainable.   Assuming the black vote returns to him by 90-10 margins, that reduces the lead to 16 points.

I'm not sold that the speech helped Obama, although I don't think it hurt him either.  The politics of race, the issue of race, is something where I don't think a speech is going to significantly impact perceptions and realities when it comes to individuals.  I may be proven wrong about this, but there's been a legacy of discourse on the issue that would seem to suggest that.  To deny race as a factor in anything is to deny, in many respects, reality.

This was a very necessary speech for Barack.  He had to make that speech.  He had to talk about it.  I don't think this puts anything to bed just yet.  That said, there's another reality out there.  Simply put, the onus on PA has always been on HRC.  They have to win this, and win big, whereas Obama just has to avoid losing badly.  

I think it'll be crucial to watch the news cycle in the next few days.  How does HRC take back the media attention.

You and I both know that Obama is going to lose PA but that is besides the point. The dem primary is over. Hillary has lost. There is no conceivable way that she can win. Especially now that re-votes in MI and FL are kaput. This thing is over. The Pastor video and subsequent uproar was a test for the super delegates to see how he was going to survive the Limbaugh/O'Reilly/Gingrich assault come summer and fall. He passed.  This is over. Obama has won more delegates (100- 150 and counting). Obama has more votes (almost a million). Obama has won more states (2 to 1) Hillary cannot catch up. Its statistically impossible. PA is irrelevant. The supers will weigh in shortly and we can all move on.

He's already locked up the election.  Even if he gets blown out in PA, he's still going to be the nominee.

dictate that he will be the nominee?  I've never understood why Obama and his supporters don't just lie low and coast to victory.  Going negative now can only hurt his ability to get Republican and swing voters in November.

lol  Good one.  Judgement...with this and Rezko just under way.  Mmmm, yeah.

He will make up for a loss there  in Indiana and NC.
He just gained 10 extra delegates in IA on top of what he was projected to win on election day. That wipes out Clinton's big win in Ohio. And he won TX, when delegates are counted. He will also win more superdelegates because they are politicians too and see that is the best way to improve their own reelection chances.

Clinton will win PA. She will have more party flaks voting for her. That is not enough to make up for her losses in February. She can hang on hoping for a miracle, like Huckabee did. It will work just as well for her.

A couple of things what "bounce" 12 points is pretty much what it was earlier if not a slight improvement, the 26 point edge has not only a massive amount of undecideds but as someone pointed out earlier highly flawed internals.

steve- if what you're saying is the case (and its highly debatable) how are "H" supporters planning on spinning her blowout losses in virtually every swing state: VA, MN, WI, WA (for her at least), CO, and IA (add her probable blowout losses in NC and OR one flippable for O the other solid blue for him and MCcain for her) outside of the tossup states (NM and MO) and the screwy, "up in the air" states, she's won two states that could be considered tight (OH and AR) and only one of those (AR) is a state that Obama doesn't have a very good chance in. Even including FL (MI is not countable, all data suggest it would be a draw right now and Obama was not an option for voters), she has the edge in what 3 current swing states (FL,OH,AR) add PA and that's 4, in what way would that be the sort of definitve case that supers would need to overturn Obama's delegate edge.

Heh - the PPP poll under-weights women.  Only 55% of the poll.  In Ohio, it was 59%.

If you reweight the poll, it's 61-27 - a 34 point lead for Hillary.

Whats puzzling about Obama supporters is they really equate the nomination with the presidency. It doesn't work that way in America and Barry may think he will "get her voters" but he is in for a rude awakening. Hillary has gotten plenty of votes too you know! I guess we aren't part of the Democratic Party. What chances would the Dems have in November without blue collar whites, white women, seniors, Jews and Latinos? McCain will put all those voters in play against Obama. Obama has people under 30, blacks and latte liberals. Whether Clinton OR Obama like it or not they cannot win the general without the other.

I feel she was very gracious to Obama today, when she talked about his speech.

I love it when they are friendly to each other. I hate it, when they fight.

Well, his "judgment" hasn't gotten anyone killed so far.

I think Obama may try to go back to the judgment argument, but I think it could backfire. Continuing to refer to his judgment invites people to look at the many examples where his judgment was highly questionable. He has already admitted he used poor judgment regarding his relationship with Tony Rezko (someone he still considers to be a friend). I would argue that his relationship with Wright, and his handling of this situation reflects poorly on his judgment. I've said it before, but I think his judgment hiring his campaign staff has been highly questionable (Goolsbee, Rice, Power), and if those choices are any indication of what an Obama cabinet would look like, that's a big problem.

Anybody with presidential aspirations who sat in the pew and listened to THAT for twenty years, and took 250K in campaign contributions (as well as his OWN backyard!) from Tony Rezko is going to have a hard time talking about their great judgment.

The "Wright Pastor Problem" is an example of manufactured controversy.  I didn't get the memo which said we are supposed to judge one person's character based upon the inflammatory words of another person.

How can anyone on this board legitimately associate Wright's words to Obama?  Because they are in the same church?  Thats the type of race baiting shit that Republicans participate in.

Its the most ridiculous assertion I have seen in the entire campaign and a complete logical fallacy.  I am sure people in November will care more about the Wright issue than the fact that their houses are being foreclosed upon.  

do da dat did you vote for Kerry???

And I think that Senator Obama has a lot of time to make up lost ground.  I'm not saying that he will, just that there is a good amount of time left for other issues or boneheaded mistakes from either candidate to make it to the forefront of the campaigns.  

I guess Hillary's vote doesn't bother Murtha. he endorsed her today!

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail /2008/03/18/john_murtha_endorses_hillary _c_1.html

While I think Obama's speech was great, I am not so sure that Americans are ready or even want to tackle the race issue at this particular time.  We have big problems.  I understand that race relations in this country are not great, but neither are they as he has described them everywhere.  Maybe in the black community it is the issue, but not necessarily in the white communities, why are required to have this race issue at this time.  What makes Obama's fierce urgency of now for the base of the party have to be about race?  I am not so sure that there are a whole lot of people who even really want to deal with this subject.

I feel that Obama is sort of forcing the subject on the American people, who may not be as inclined to deal with this as he is.

Another poll showing Clinton ahead in a contest that she can no longer win.

It's too bad she decided to take a break from the campaign and lose 12 contests in a row.

I think Obama definitely comes out of the Pastor Wright flap the loser.  The brilliant and complex and lengthy speech that he gave today won't get 1% the amount of airtime that the Wright video did.  Thus, the low-information Democrats who make up much of Hillary's constituency will hear one side of the story, but are very unlikely to sit through 20 minutes of Obama delivering the rebuttal.  The media did Hillary a great favor and played the Wright video about six million times, much as they did with the Howard Dean 'scream.'  It's clear that the corporate media would prefer HRC to be the Democratic nominee, because the Clintons have always been good to big business. But on the flip side, it's a long, long way to Pennsylvania, and I don't how many more controversial videos Hillary has hidden in her arsenal.  She is going to have to find some way to put herself in a positive light, because the superdelegates and the Party elders are not going to be amused by five more weeks of low-road campaigning.

The other thing that HRC needs to deal with are the constantly changing expectations for her campaign.  I can't count the number of times that the bar has been lowered on her behalf-- remember how often the next state has been called her critical 'firewall' state, and how often we've been told that she needs 20-point blowouts from here to the end to sustain her campaign?  At some point even the clueless American electorate is going to wake up and realize that you can only move the goalposts so many times.

that's all this is.

is this whole Rev. Wright thing.  Obama's speech today was for the pundits.  They're loving it, but they know it's  politically worthless.  He still hasn't neutralized the damage to come from endless showings of his pastor's rants.  If the superdelegates aren't a rubber stamp--and by the rules they aren't--they'll do the right thing if they have to.  The general election isn't Barack Obama's playpen.  He has to win.  We can't afford a President McCain.

I am ok with obama being the insurgent in Pa. He will work the state over the next month with no where to go but up.

Usually, he has done ok when he has time to really get into a state.
Everyone expects and knows that Hillary will win Pa. handily so for once the expectation game will go against her unless she wins 70%.

I too, like it when they are friendly. We are all democrats wanting to end this debacle in Iraq and we need to unify to get this done.

Here's the Q poll release memo, chock full o' detail.

dunno if you're following the delegate math, but she needs to win out by 60% and still get like 70% of the super delegates. Given that she is way down in roughly 1/2 the states left -- and most projections have them breaking even -- she needs to do much better than this or drop out for the good of the Democratic party.

John Edwards were are you when we need you.  This sucks.  Why did he pull out so early  damn.  This Wright crap should have came out last year.  What took the media so long to vet him?

The story written here is trying to claim a bump in Clinton's polling in PA due to recent newscycles.  This is incorrect.  The previous Quinnipac poll was taken nearly a month ago, in the middle of the Obama routs of February.  

In the poll that has taken the most recent multiple surveys, Rasmussen, here are the results..

2/26 -
Clinton: 46
Obama: 42

3/5 -
Clinton: 52
Obama: 37

3/12 -
Clinton: 51
Obama: 38

So, in the poll with the most recent data points, Clinton did extremely well in the run-up to the TX/OH primaries, but has very slightly faded since then (as of Wednesday of last week).  There isn't any polling that I see that shows PA trending for Clinton.  When looking at other recent polls (these are the 4 most recent that I haven't talked about yet according to pollster.com), these numbers show a decrease in Hillary's lead:

Survey USA 3/8-10 - Clinton +19
Clinton: 55
Obama: 36

Susquehanna 3/5-10 - Clinton +14
Clinton: 45
Obama: 31

Strategic Vision 3/7-9 - Clinton +18
Clinton: 56
Obama: 38

ARG 3/7-8 - Clinton +11
Clinton: 52
Obama: 41

These polls average to a Clinton lead of 15.5.  The new Quinnipac poll shows a Clinton lead of 13.

On the issue of the PPP poll, there is no way that it can show a bounce, as PPP has not polled PA before a couple of days ago.  While it does show Hillary with a strong lead, it does not show a bounce for HER.  Now, I know that the PPP was the poll taken most recently, but we shouldn't think that Clinton has a solid 26 point lead.  It seems that, if anything, all the recent news has done is make people second guess Obama.  They have moved from Obama to undecided (the PPP poll has 14% undecided) - not to Hillary.  Hillary got 56% of the vote in that poll.  There hasn't been a poll this month (save Susquehanna) that hasn't shown Hillary in the low to mid 50s.  

Anyway, I'm just trying to give a little more information on these polls.  It's a pretty big leap to look at the polling and claim a big bounch for Clinton.  The data just doesn't show that, at least yet.

Rather than let TV pundits rule our thoughts it's sometimes great to use our own brain.  This URL will take you to one person's use and give you an URL to check the results for yourself.  It's November, stupid - that should be considered.

http://anglachelg.blogspot.com/

Honestly, it shocks me that Clinton supporters STILL gloat over poll numbers. Hasn't she had similar leads in every other poll only to watch them vanquish?

There's a long time until the election, don't be getting too cocky just yet.

The election in PA has just started.

Don't you Clinton supporters ever learn?

Sorry, guys.  

IMO it doesn't matter what Obama and HRC supporters, as individuals, believe.

It matters what the voters OUT THERE, who are not obsessively reading the blogs, believe.

And they are not buying The Speech.
And we are going to blow this election.